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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
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000 FXUS62 KRAH 241035 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 635 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will drift southeast into central NC today, then shift to our south tonight. High pressure will build in from the north Thursday through Friday night, before shifting offshore over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 228 AM EDT Wednesday... Partly sunny becoming mostly cloudy with a few sprinkles possible. Mild temperatures in the lower to mid 70s. A cold front over the Ohio Valley early this morning will move SE into central NC late today, then shift southeast and offshore of the NC coast late tonight. A band of mid-cloudiness is expected to accompany the front as it moves into and through the region. Models continue to suggest a mostly dry frontal passage as we are lacking moisture and instability in the predominately westerly flow. The most likely outcome should be some sprinkles or very light showers (QPF of 0.01 or so). Highs today are expected to be in the lower to mid 70s. The front will shift to our SE tonight. There may be an isolated shower or two over the eastern Sandhills and SE Coastal Plain early to mid evening. Otherwise, expect skies to be mostly clear to partly cloudy. The low level flow will become NNE overnight with CAA. Lows should fall back into the mid 40s NE ranging into the lower 50s south. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 228 AM Wednesday... Mainly sunny and about 5 degrees cooler Thursday. 1030 mb high pressure will be over PA/NY at 12z Thursday with a cold front offshore of the Carolina coast. The high pressure will gradually shift east and off the New England and mid-Atlantic coast by 00z/Friday. The low level flow from the NE will gradually turn to the E-SE late Thursday and Thursday night. This flow will be a bit more moist, especially in the Piedmont west into the Blue Ridge. Expect increasing cloudiness, especially in the Piedmont late Thursday and Thursday night. Highs Thursday will be in the 65-70 range north and northeast ranging into the mid 70s over the Sandhills and Southern Piedmont. Lows Thursday night are favored to be in the upper 40s to lower 50s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 345 AM Wednesday... A mid/upr-level anticyclone will build across and offshore the South Atlantic states through Monday. A weak shortwave trough will then briefly weaken the ridge as it migrates across the ern US Tue-Wed. At the surface, cP high pressure over ON this morning will build sewd and across New England by 12Z Fri, then swd along and just offshore the Middle and South Atlantic coasts through early next week. As the high drifts swd and steadily modifies, it will direct across cntl NC seasonably cool/mild ely flow Fri-Sat and much warmer sswly flow Sun-Tue. A pre-frontal/lee trough and following cold front will accompany the aforementioned shortwave trough over the ern US late Tue-Wed. Associated probability of showers/storms should be diurnally-maximized with the pre-frontal/lee trough, which will likely move across the srn Middle Atlantic Piedmont and Coastal Plain Tue afternoon and evening, with dry conditions in cntl NC until that time. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 635 AM Wednesday... A band of mid and high clouds (VFR) will pass over central NC today. This will be associated with a surface cold front. This front will push through today then offshore tonight. Skies will then clear out by late in the TAF valid period. Surface winds from the SW will shift to be from the W gradually through the next 24 hours as a cold front moves through the area. Looking beyond 00z Thu, VFR conditions are expected to hold through Sun, under high pressure. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...MWS AVIATION...Badgett
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