Text Products for AFD Issued by RAH

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
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FXUS62 KRAH 200724
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
323 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the region early today, and then settle just
to our south late today. A wave of low pressure will track along the
front Sunday into Monday, bringing unsettled conditions and cooler
temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 222 AM Saturday...

Overcast with an isolated shower early today, then becoming partly
sunny and mild.

A cold front over western NC will slowly move southeast through most
of central NC this morning. The front is expected to stall to our SE
tonight (along the SC coast). There were some scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms early this morning associated with a weak low
pressure and the cold front. Greensboro had nearly 0.25 of an inch
of rain from a shower before 200 AM, and Rockingham and Laurinburg
has a 200-300 AM thunderstorm.

This activity is expected to diminish as it moves across mainly the
southern part of our region through sunrise. Low overcast
conditions and patchy fog will be slow to leave this
morning, but the pressure gradient and surface wind will pick up
with the front today. Winds are expected to become N-NE at 10-15 mph
this afternoon. Highs today will be mostly in the mid 70s to lower
80s (N to S). Cloudiness will increase again tonight as the low
level NE flow will be topped by the SW flow aloft. There is a chance
of light rain late tonight in the southern Piedmont. Lows will turn
much cooler with the NE flow. Expect lows in the 40s and lower 50s N
to SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 222 AM Saturday...

Light rain and turning much cooler Sunday with a chilly NE flow.

A wave of low pressure is expected to track along the stalled front
over southern GA and coastal SC / SE NC Sunday, then move well
offshore Sunday night. This occurs in response to the weak short
wave trough that will move NE along the Gulf Coast states.
Isentropic lift is expected to develop SW to NE across the region
Sunday. Light rain is expected to overspread the region Sunday
morning, tapering off from the west during the late day and evening.
The rain is needed in central NC as many areas have had less than 50
percent of their historical normals for the first 3 weeks of April.
However, this will not be a major soaked as generally 0.25 is
expected NW ranging to locally 0.50 in the south and east. The
biggest news may be the expected cool down as temperatures Sunday
will hold in the 50s for many areas.

Skies will slowly clear in the west Sunday night, but mostly cloudy
skis should linger in the east. It will be chilly with lows in the
upper 30s west and north ranging into the mid 40s SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 AM Saturday...

A southern stream shortwave is forecast to move through the lower TN
Valley early Mon morning and shift off the Carolina coast through
the late evening hours. The character of this wave, according to
majority of NWP guidance available, as it slides through the
Carolinas is an elongated and positively tilted axis resulting in
weaker forcing within an already dry post frontal airmass and barely
even a wisp of cloud cover. The 18z GFS highlights an alternate
scenario composed of a more compact shortwave and deep PV anomaly,
resulting in stronger synoptic forcing for an area of blossoming
mid/high clouds and perhaps even some light rain/sprinkles, mainly
south of the US-64 corridor Mon afternoon into the evening.
Elongated surface high pressure shifts over the Southeast and just
off the Northeast coast through Tues morning promoting calm, cool,
and clear skies for nearly optimal radiational cooling. Trended
temperatures down areawide and into the upper 30s in the typical
cool spots although, statistical guidance suggest mid/low 30s
(increasing the chances for frost) may be possible in theses areas
and will depend on timing when surface conditions go calm and
departure of retreating cloud cover.

Tuesday through Friday: A northern stream trough will dig through
the northern Plains Tues and pivot across the Ohio Valley and
Northern Mid-Atlantic Wed night with high amplitude ridging through
late week. The northern stream wave will encourage a cP surface high
dive south out of Ontario Canada and over the Great Lakes region and
help push a cold front into the southern Mid-Atlantic through Thurs
morning. Some weakening light rain/sprinkles may be possible as the
shortwaves pivots across the Mid-Atlantic, however the better
mid/upper forcing remains well displaced to the north of central NC.
The equatorward penetration of this dry cold frontal passage largely
remains in question and will be responsible for the sensible weather
and precipitation chances through the mid/late week. This results in
two scenarios. First, and solution is the cold front loses steam
stalls in the vicinity of the Carolinas and then waffles over
central NC through late week providing a focus for diurnal showers
Thurs/Fri. The second scenario is the cold front is able to push
well south of central NC and remain on the cool and dry side of the
boundary with near zero precipitation chances.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 136 AM Saturday...

24 hour TAF period: MVFR to IFR CIGS and VSBYS will dominate this
morning ahead of a cold frontal passage. Scattered showers/storms
are possible, especially around KGSO and KFAY through 09z or 10z.
Otherwise, a return to VFR conditions are expected through the day
with CIGS between 4-6k feet this afternoon.

Outlook: Expect mostly dry through Sat night. Light rain and
associated sub-VFR restrictions will spread southwest to northeast
across the area Sunday and into Sunday night as a wave of low
pressure tracks along a slow moving cold front near the coast.
Otherwise VFR conditions are expected to return Mon through Tue.
&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...Swiggett
AVIATION...Badgett
National Weather Service Regional Headquarters
