Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 192331 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
531 PM MDT Fri Apr 19 2019

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Mid and high level
clouds will rapidly increase after mid morning Saturday as a short
wave trough crosses the Four Corners area. Meanwhile, southwesterly
surface winds will increase area wide Saturday afternoon as a surface
low deepens over eastern CO. Gusts near 30kts are possible,
especially near and south of a KGUP to KLVS line.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...248 PM MDT Fri Apr 19 2019...
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain overhead through Saturday morning, ahead of
a weak Pacific storm system forecast to move through northern New
Mexico Saturday. Southwest winds associated with this system will
increase on Saturday afternoon while a few light showers develop
over the northern mountains. Breezy to locally windy conditions
return Sunday afternoon, ahead of another Pacific storm system. This
system is forecast to bring cooler conditions to eastern New Mexico
Monday along with a chance for showers and thunderstorms, mainly over
the western and northern mountains. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms spread into other areas of the state Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper-level ridge axis near the NM/AZ line this afternoon will
continue sliding eastward this evening and overnight. The weak closed
low just off the southern CA coast looking rather anemic on satellite
imagery this afternoon. It`s this feature and the associated sub-
tropical jet that will result in increasing winds for most locales
Saturday afternoon, along with a few high based showers over the
northern mountains Saturday afternoon and early evening.

Sunday still looking like an in-between upper-level trough day with
breezy to locally windy conditions developing during the afternoon
and continuing through early evening. At the same time west and
southwest winds diminish Sunday evening, a relatively strong backdoor
cold front will slide into northeast NM. Meanwhile in the upper-
levels of the atmosphere, a closed low will be dropping south and
southeast through the Great Basin Monday. These two features will
likely combine to produce an active weather period Monday through at
least Wednesday next week. NAM continues to keep the atmosphere
rather stable behind the backdoor front on Monday while the GFS is
more active. Main takeaway is that any showers and storms that
develop behind the front Monday will likely be during the late
afternoon/peak heating. Strong convection developing over southeast
CO is forecast to send a reinforcing shot of cooler and more moist
air from the northeast Monday night into Tuesday. Main model trend
today is more progressive, taking the the upper low east of NM
Tuesday night. Residual moisture hangs around for a round of showers
and storms Wednesday afternoon but not the widespread showers and
storms of previous model runs.

Models agree that an upper-level ridge in the southern stream moves
in for Thursday and Friday with perhaps another trough for next
weekend.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A large ridge of upper level high pressure over New Mexico tonight
will slide to the east of the state early Saturday morning.
Southwest winds will be light tonight, but speeds will stay above 5
mph in most locations. Drier low level air will move across western
New Mexico tonight. The combination of light but persistent winds
tonight and drier air moving in from the southwest will result in
poor recovery in the higher elevations of western New Mexico and
fair recovery across the remainder of the region. On Saturday, a
weak low pressure area will move across northern New Mexico,
bringing light rain and high elevation snow to northwest and north
central portions of the state. Snow levels will be above 9,000 feet.
Surface low pressure will develop across eastern Colorado and
northwest Texas Saturday afternoon, and southwest winds will
increase to between 15 and around 20 mph. At elevations below the
snow pack, afternoon relative humidity will fall below 15 percent
areawide Saturday afternoon. Marginal wind speeds and low humidity
coupled with above normal temperatures will produce marginally
critical fire weather conditions Saturday afternoon across the
northeast plains, the high central plains east of the central
mountains and the west central highlands. The Fire Weather Watch for
FWZ014, FWZ107 and FWZ109 will be continued for Saturday afternoon
and early evening. However, the Fire Weather Watch for the east
central plains, FWZ108, and the Middle Rio Grande Valley, FWZ106,
will be cancelled due to recent rainfall this past Wednesday and the
spring green-up underway. Ventilation rates will become excellent
across the entire area early Saturday afternoon.

A dry west flow on Sunday will keep daytime temperatures above
normal and afternoon relative humidity below 15 percent in the lower
elevations. The limiting factor for critical fire weather conditions
on Sunday will be the lower wind speeds. A few areas may exceed 20
mph for one or two hours, but most areas will remain below the 20
mph threshold. Ventilation rates on Sunday will be excellent across
the entire area.

A slow moving low pressure system will drop southward from the Great
Basin over Arizona on Monday and then move across New Mexico on
Wednesday. This storm system will bring in mid and high level
moisture from the west, while a backdoor cold front Sunday night and
Monday will be followed by moist east to northeast low level flow
through Wednesday. Increasing relative humidity and light winds
Monday through Wednesday, accompanied by below normal temperatures,
will greatly reduce the chances for critical fire weather conditions
through Wednesday. Drier and milder conditions are expected Thursday
and Friday with generally light winds.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening
for the following zones... NMZ104-107-109.

&&

$$



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