Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 310006 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
506 PM MST Mon Jan 30 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 158 PM MST Mon Jan 30 2023

Another round of low clouds, freezing fog, and freezing drizzle is
expected tonight across the eastern plains and areas along the
central mountain chain with a Freezing Fog Advisory expected to be
issued for some of these areas. Some light snow is possible
across the Northwest plateau and the Tusa Mountains as a storm
system continues diving south from southern California into
northern Mexico tonight into tomorrow. As the storm system tracks
east into the Big Bend region of Texas, there is a chance for some
freezing drizzle early Wednesday across Chaves and Roosevelt
counties quickly transitioning to rain. The system quickly moves
off into the Texas Hill Country Thursday with warming
temperatures and tranquil weather expected thereafter.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 158 PM MST Mon Jan 30 2023

Although freezing fog, fog, and light snow have diminished this
afternoon, low clouds persist along and east of the Pecos Valley as
well as over far northeast New Mexico. Southwest winds continue to
gust along the east slopes of the central mountain chain so erosion
of the low clouds should continue as thinner areas in the cloud
cover are appearing on satellite imagery. But it may not totally
dissipate, especially in southeast and far northeast NM. Models
persist with the trend of the low clouds returning westward tonight
and potentially reaching the east slopes of the central mountain
chain. Some model differences appear though, with the NAM taking the
front the farthest west, allowing it to leak into the Santa Fe area
as well as down Tijeras Canyon late tonight. Went ahead and adjusted
winds for this scenario. Another Freezing Fog Advisory may need to
be issued later this evening. Gusty southwest winds Tuesday should
shunt the low clouds back to the east. In northwest New Mexico,
scattered snow showers appear to produce spotty sub-advisory
snowfall amounts. Temperatures will remain below normal through
Tuesday night and will trend colder on Tuesday over all but the far
northeast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 158 PM MST Mon Jan 30 2023

Wednesday will start out with a weakening upper level low and
associated surface low over northern Chihuahua Mexico. This
surface low will help slug some moisture into the Big Bend and
Permian Basin of Texas. There is a chance for some of this
moisture to make it up into Chaves and southern Roosevelt county.
However, deterministic and ensemble models (outside of the ECMWF)
have trended further south with the track of this upper level
trough. With this, trimmed NBM Pops south with mentionable Pops
remaining confined to Chaves and Roosevelt counties. Freezing
drizzle in the early morning hours of Wednesday will quickly
transition to rain as surface temperatures warm. With the cloud
cover, temperatures will remain in the upper 30s and low 40s (15-20
degrees below normal). Meanwhile, temperatures outside of this
area will be a few degrees below average under mostly sunny skies
and light winds.

The upper level trough quickly moves off into the Hill Country of
Texas during the day Thursday with sunny skies, light north winds,
and temperatures 3 to 7 degrees below average left in its wake.
From there, upper level ridging will slide east and be over the
state early Friday transitioning to zonal flow during the day due
to a weak upper level disturbance across the central Rockies. This
will lead to some breezy conditions across the east Friday due to
a surface lee trough. The weak upper level trough moves east into
the Great Plains Saturday with some locally gusty northwest winds
across the central highlands Saturday and a weak surface backdoor
cold front clipping northeast New Mexico. Another upper level
ridge will then move east over the state early Sunday. Upper level
flow will quickly back to southwest as the next upper level
trough pushes into the Pacific coast and inland over the Great
Basin. This will allow another lee surface low and trough to
develop over southeast Colorado with some breezy south and
southwest winds over the eastern plains. Temperatures during the
Friday through Sunday period will be at to a few degrees above
average. Winds and precipitation look to ramp up early next week
as the upper level trough pushes east through the Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 448 PM MST Mon Jan 30 2023

An upper level low pressure system over southern CA and the upper
Baja California Peninsula will draw the persistent backdoor cold
front westward to the east slopes of NM`s central mountain chain
again tonight, where it is forecast to linger with IFR conditions
in freezing fog, low clouds, and potentially some freezing drizzle
(near the TX border) through at least the morning on Tuesday
before gradually retreating eastward during the afternoon. The
retreat is forecast to be more effective across northeast and
potentially east central areas, where VFR conditions are forecast
with moderate confidence late in the day (higher confidence the
further north you go toward the CO border). Farther south, the
flow is forecast to stay out of the southeast with IFR and MVFR
conditions in low clouds and areas of freezing fog forecast to
continue through Tuesday afternoon, especially in the Pecos River
Valley. The potential exists for low clouds to work their way
over Santa Fe early Tuesday morning as well. Meanwhile, along and
west of the continental divide tonight and Tuesday, the
approaching weather system is forecast to produce MVFR and locally
IFR conditions in low clouds and periods of light snow,
especially north of Highway 60.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 158 PM MST Mon Jan 30 2023

A cold front and associated low clouds, fog, freezing fog, light
snow and freezing drizzle that has sloshed back and forth over
eastern New Mexico will move westward again tonight and is expected
to reach the east slopes of the central mountain chain. It may seep
into the Santa Fe area and through Tijeras Canyon late tonight but
should be shunted eastward again by midday Tuesday by southwest
breezes along the central mountain chain. Otherwise, scattered light
snow showers are possible over northwest New Mexico, mainly along
and west of the Continental Divide tonight into Tuesday night as an
upper trough dives into Arizona. Any snow accumulations are expected
to be light. Similarly, any wintry precipitation over eastern New
Mexico through early Thursday will be light as the main upper low
passes well to our south and the cold front gradually modifies.
Below normal temperatures will warm to near normal or above by
Friday and remain there through the weekend.

Ventilation will be good to excellent along the central mountain
chain Tuesday with fair to poor rates elsewhere. Poor ventilation
expected Wednesday except for fair to good rates over central New
Mexico. Widespread poor rates forecast Thursday through Sunday. Dry
west to northwest flow aloft will dominate Thursday and through the
weekend with locally breezy conditions. The next substantial weather
system is possible early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  23  38  15  37 /  20  10   5   0
Dulce...........................  18  38   8  38 /  20  20  10   0
Cuba............................  17  38  14  36 /   5  10   5   0
Gallup..........................  20  36  11  39 /  10  30  10   0
El Morro........................  15  38  13  40 /   0  10   5   5
Grants..........................  14  42  13  42 /   0   5   0   0
Quemado.........................  17  44  17  42 /   0   5   5  10
Magdalena.......................  25  46  24  44 /   0   0   0  10
Datil...........................  19  43  19  42 /   0   0   0   5
Reserve.........................  21  48  22  48 /   0   5   5  20
Glenwood........................  30  51  31  52 /   0   5   0  20
Chama...........................  14  32   6  34 /  30  30  20   0
Los Alamos......................  21  38  20  39 /   0   5   5   0
Pecos...........................  18  34  20  43 /   5  10   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  10  36   8  37 /   0  10   5   0
Red River.......................  13  33   8  33 /  10  10   5   0
Angel Fire......................  10  32   3  36 /   5  10   5   0
Taos............................  14  37  10  38 /   0   5   0   0
Mora............................  15  39  16  43 /   0  10   0   0
Espanola........................  16  43  16  45 /   0   5   5   0
Santa Fe........................  17  42  20  42 /   5   5   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  21  40  17  44 /   0   5   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  28  46  27  47 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  27  48  26  49 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  20  50  20  51 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  25  48  24  48 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  19  52  20  51 /   0   0   0   5
Bernalillo......................  23  48  23  48 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  17  51  18  51 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  24  49  23  49 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  17  52  19  51 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  25  44  24  45 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  25  47  25  48 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  28  53  26  51 /   0   0   0  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  22  41  23  41 /   0  10   0   5
Tijeras.........................  20  43  23  44 /   0   5   0   5
Edgewood........................  16  42  19  45 /   0   5   0   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  11  44  13  46 /   0   5   0   5
Clines Corners..................  16  38  20  43 /   5  10   0   5
Mountainair.....................  21  45  22  46 /   0   5   0   5
Gran Quivira....................  25  47  23  47 /   0   5   0  10
Carrizozo.......................  31  51  28  51 /   0   5   5  30
Ruidoso.........................  27  44  25  44 /   0  10  10  40
Capulin.........................   8  32  13  43 /   5   5   0   0
Raton...........................  10  34  10  46 /   5   5   0   0
Springer........................  12  35  11  48 /   0   5   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  13  36  14  47 /   0  10   0   0
Clayton.........................   5  29  15  46 /  10  10   0   0
Roy.............................  10  27  13  47 /   5  10   0   0
Conchas.........................  14  34  17  52 /   5  20   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  16  35  20  51 /   5  20   0   5
Tucumcari.......................  14  32  19  47 /   5  20   0   5
Clovis..........................  16  32  19  42 /  10  20   5  30
Portales........................  17  33  20  43 /  10  20   5  30
Fort Sumner.....................  22  35  21  45 /   5  20   0  20
Roswell.........................  25  37  24  41 /   5  10  20  40
Picacho.........................  25  38  24  45 /   0   5   5  30
Elk.............................  24  41  24  44 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...44


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