Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 161139
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
539 AM MDT Wed Oct 16 2019

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

Little change from the 06Z forecast package other than slight timing
changes for wind shifts. VFR conditions are expected through the
period at all sites.

54/Fontenot

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...301 AM MDT Wed Oct 16 2019...
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions will prevail as temperatures warm to above normal
values. The exception will be across the southeast corner of the
state where temperatures will remain slightly below average as the
effects of yesterday`s cold front linger. Dry, warmer conditions
continue on Thursday, but winds will strengthen across northeast and
east central NM. On Friday, a cold front will sweep across the state,
cooling temperatures first across the west on Friday and then across
the east on Saturday. Stronger winds will be felt on Friday,
especially along and east of the central mountain chain. A few
showers can`t be ruled out for far north central New Mexico, but
little precipitation is expected. The upcoming weekend looks to be
mostly dry, but another cool down and windier conditions will arrive
Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The backdoor cold front that moved through the east yesterday has now
squeezed into the RGV with little fanfare. While winds have shifted
to the east, speeds have been fairly subdued in the ABQ area. With
an upper-level ridge building over the area today, temperatures will
warm for most through Thursday. The exception will be across the
southeast today where the effects of yesterday`s front will linger.

An upper-level trough off the west coast will move inland on
Thursday, and as southwesterly flow develops ahead of this over the
state, a surface lee side trough will develop and deepen. Strong,
gusty winds up to 35 knots are expected on Thursday across northeast
and east central NM, and with dry conditions, critical fire weather
conditions will be in place across the northeast. A Fire Weather
Watch will be issued for the northeast corner of the state for
Thursday.

As the upper-level trough crosses the central Rockies Friday, it will
send a Pacific cold front across the state during the day. This will
cool temperatures across western NM Friday while further cooling
continues Saturday in the east. Winds will also continue to
strengthen as the pressure gradient tightens over NM. The strongest
winds will be felt along and east of the central mountain chain with
a surface low of about 995mb over southeastern CO. A few light
showers will be possible across far north central NM on Friday, but
little precipitation is expected as the bulk of the moisture will
remain too far north.

That system exits early Saturday, and yet another system will follow
in its footsteps. This system will also remain too far north to allow
for more than a slight chance of precipitation for northern NM, but
it will send another front through the state on Sunday that will cool
temperatures to below normal values. Sunday will likely be the
windiest day of the week, especially along and east of the central
mountain chain where winds could reach Wind Advisory Criteria. With
very dry conditions continuing, widespread critical fire weather
conditions in the east will be a concern on Sunday (see Fire Weather
discussion below).

15

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for the Northeast Plains on
Thursday as a weather system moves through the Southern Plains.
Winds will increase Thursday afternoon with minimum RH values
dropping down into the low teens. This, along with well above normal
afternoon highs on Thursday and dry 10/100 hour fuels will likely
lead to a period of widespread critical fire weather conditions in
in Zone 104 (Northeast Plains). Local areas of critical fire weather
condtions can be expected in the adjoining zones (103/108), but
critical values aren`t expected to be widespread enough for the
issuance of a Fire Weather Watch or a Red Flag Warning.

Condtions look to fall below critical levels on Friday and Saturday
with only a small area of locally critical fire weather conditions
in extreme NE New Mexico on Friday. Widespread critical fire weather
conditions are looking more likely over northern New Mexico on
Sunday. Winds will be the strongest east of the Central Mountain
Chain with widespread minimum RH values in the low teens to some
isolated single digit values. Confidence in the winds reaching
critical values over the Four Corners on Sunday is moderate at this
time, but ERC and fuel moisture values are more critical in this
region. Forecasts through the remainder of the work week should be
monitored for current trends.

54/Fontenot


.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
for the following zones... NMZ104.

&&

$$

15



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