Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 262156
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1256 PM AKST Fri Feb 26 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
The second in a series of weak low pressure systems is poised to
bring another round of snow over much of the Interior with the
Middle Tanana Valley expected to pick up another 4 to 7 inches and
higher amounts in the Alaska Range through Sunday into Monday.
The Western North Slope, Chukchi Sea Coast and Bering Strait will
remain cold with dangerous wind chills persisting into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The 26/12z model suite initialized well against the 12z surface
analysis and verified well against the 18z surface analysis. Much
better agreement on the timing and location of expected snowfall
in the Interior as compared to the last couple of model runs.
Model spread remains reasonable into early next week before
significant spread creeps into the model suite by the middle of
next week.

Aloft at 500 hpa, a trough that extends southwest over Northern
Alaska from an upper level low to the east of Banks Island while
a strong ridge continues to build north into the Northern Gulf of
Alaska and South Central Alaska. This is producing deep and moist
southwest to westerly flow over much of the Alaska Range and
Interior especially to the south of the Yukon River. Enhances
areas of lift are expected to push through the southwesterly flow
bringing periods of enhanced snowfall over much of the Interior
into Sunday. Deep cold will remain in place over the North Slope
with 850 hpa temperatures in the 25 to 28 below range and below
normal surface temperatures in the 30s to 40 below range through
the weekend and into early next week.

On the surface a 990 mb low just east of St Paul Island will
weaken and push inland into the Lower YK Delta and will bring
significant snowfall over much of the Lower YK Delta and southern
portions of the Western Interior today and Saturday and into the
Central and Eastern Interior through Sunday. A 1034 mb high
pressure system over Eastern Siberia will continue to build slowly
east over the Southern Chukchi Sea, the Being Strait, North Slope
and Brooks Range through the weekend. The surface low continues to
push east over South Central Alaska as a 988 mb low on Sunday and
will push into the southwestern Yukon Sunday night and Monday
morning. A strong front rotating around deep low in the Central
Bering Sea pushes into the Lower YK Delta Monday.

Central and Eastern Interior...Snow continues to push into the
Interior today and will continue into Sunday for the Central
Interior and into Monday for the Eastern Interior. Winter weather
advisories are in effect for snow across the Interior with
snowfall totals around generally in the 4 to 8 inches through
Sunday. Heavier amounts of snow are expected near the Alaska
Range where 6 to 12 inches are expected. Winds will also ramp up
over Summits on Saturday along the Elliott and Dalton Highways.
Winds gusting to 30 mph could produce low visibility to one half
mile at times on Saturday. Winter weather advisories continue for
the for the Highway Summits in the Interior. Southerly winds
combined with heavy snow in Isabel Pass will produce considerable
blowing and drifting snow on Saturday. As winds in Isabel Pass
shift to the north and strengthen on Sunday near blizzard
conditions are expected to develop south of Trims Camp. Snow over
the Central Interior will slowly diminish by Sunday night and
will diminish on Monday in the Eastern Interior. Temperatures will
remain around normal over the weekend and slowly drop early next
week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Dangerous wind chills continue over the Western North Slope where
Wind Chill Warning remain in effect through noon Saturday. Temperatures
expected to remain well below normal going into early next week.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Low wind chills continue for the Chukchi Sea Coast and the Bering
Strait and will continue through noon on Saturday as low temperatures
and gusty winds continue. Snow continues to push inland ahead of a
developing low near St Paul Island. Storm total snowfall through
Saturday. A brief reprieve on Sunday before a strong front rotating
around deep low in the Central Bering Sea pushes into the Lower
YK Delta on Monday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ207-AKZ213.

Wind Chill Warning for AKZ201.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222-
AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ225-AKZ226-AKZ227.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

$$

CCC FEB 21


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