Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 240100

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
400 PM AKST Wed Jan 23 2019

The progressive series of lows and weather fronts moving north
along the West Coat will continue through the end of the week,
bringing periods of gusty winds, snow, and blowing snow to the
West Coast and Western Interior, with a chance of freezing rain in
the southwest Interior. Southerly flow aloft will bring periods
of chinook winds through the Alaska Range. Temperatures will trend
upwards for much of northern Alaska.

Aloft, at 500 mb, a long wave trough over the Bering will persist
through the week, with various lows and shortwaves rotating
through the flow. Upper level ridge axis extends from the
northeast Pacific to southeast Alaska and northwest across the
Interior. A progression of shortwaves across the West Coast will
push the ridge axis to the east through the weekend.

Surface...A lee side trough north of the Brooks Range will deepen
through Friday, with a closed low developing east of Demarcation
Point tonight, and sliding east through Thursday. Broad inverted
trough remains along the West Coast through the week.

A 982 mb low located near Hooper Bay this afternoon will lift
north overnight to be a 992 mb low between St Lawrence Island and
Port Clarence Thursday morning, weakening through the day and
becoming part of the inverted trough that spans the West Coast and
eastern Bering.

A 979 mb low 150 NM southwest of Dutch Harbor will move north
overnight to be a 979 mb low 175 NM northwest of Dutch Harbor
Thursday morning becoming part of a broad area of low pressure
over the Bering.

A 976 mb low 200 NM southeast of Cold Bay Thursday morning will
lift north and weaken to be 980 mb over Bristol Bay Thursday
afternoon, continuing to weaken and dissipate as it moves north
Thursday night.

Models...12Z models initialized well against the 12Z RAOBS and
fair against the 12Z and 15Z surface obs. Mesoscale differences
become apparent by Thursday 15Z with the lows and shortwaves near
the Aleutians and in the Bering Sea. 12Z and 15Z surface obs were
2 to 3 mb higher than models near the highs over the Yukon Flats
and near Northway. Models are in fair agreement at the surface
through 12Z Thursday, when model solutions begin to diverge with
the placement, movement, and timing of the various lows moving
northward in the flow, leading to a lower confidence forecast.

North Slope and Brooks Range: General warming trend through the
next several days. Southerly winds continue through the eastern
Brooks Range passes, through this evening, diminishing overnight.
Easterly winds along the Arctic Coast will increase tonight into
Friday as the lee side low pressure trough north of the Brooks
Range deepens. A front move north across the Brooks Range tonight
and Thursday will bring a round of snow and blowing snow, as will
another front that approaches the region Friday night.

West Coast and Western Interior: A front will continue to move
north along the West Coast this evening and Thursday bringing
gusty winds, snow, and blowing snow. A wintry mix is possible
across the southwest Interior. Another front will trek north
across the region Thursday and Friday, bringing more gusty winds,
snow, blowing snow, and possibly a wintry mix. Snowfall totals
through Thursday will range from to inches, with isolated higher
amounts in the favored upslope areas. Highest snowfall totals in
the Nulato Hills. The ongoing southerly flow will maintain above
normal temperatures.

Central and Eastern Interior: Chinook ongoing in the Alaska Range
this afternoon with southerly wind gusts to 60 mph being observed.
Wind advisories are in place for zones 225 and 226. Expect winds
to diminish overnight to below advisory levels for zone 225,
allowing for the advisory to be expire at midnight. Winds will
increase again Thursday morning, but will remain below wind
advisory criteria. For zone 225, winds will briefly diminish late
tonight, but will quickly return to advisory level Thursday
morning, so have opted to extend the wind advisory out through
Thursday night. A 10 mb spread between Northway and Delta Junction
this morning kept the Tanana Valley Jet blowing across zone 223
today. Winds will diminish to below advisory level this evening,
but will likely remain gusty through Friday as the gradient
remains fairly tight. The southerly flow will bring warmer
temperatures over northern Alaska into the weekend. Snow chances
return Friday and Saturday for the Interior as a shortwave moves
across and flow aloft turns southwesterly.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.


Wind Advisory for AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214-AKZ215-

Gale Warning for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.


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