Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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000
FXAK69 PAFG 271426
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
526 AM AKST Fri Jan 27 2023

.SYNOPSIS...A couple surges of warm air north will bring a wintery
mix of freezing rain and snow to areas in the Lower Yukon Delta
and Upper Kuskokwim Valley tonight and Saturday, and again Sunday.
The warm air will surge north to Holy Cross to Nikolai tonight,
and Sunday north to the Norton Sound Coast and east to Nenana and
the Parks Highway where freezing rain is expected to mix with
snow. Strong gusty winds on the West Coast will diminish through
the day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Models...The 27/00Z solutions are in good agreement on the big
picture, but they differ on the details, especially on the
potential for freezing precipitation over the next couple days as
warm air surges north with a couple of lows moving north out of
the Pacific into the southwest mainland. Solutions are keeping
most of the precipitation west of the warmer air making the
forecast even more difficult. Will be using a blend of the
solutions for precipitation, but will lean toward more of a mixed
precipitation event. Winds being handled well by the Canadian
solution, so will lean toward it today.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Weak troughing is over the Arctic plain
as a 536 dam low has moved over Old Crow YT, and a 535 dam low is
200 nm northwest of Point Lay. Ridging persists over the Arctic
with a 540 dam high 100 nm north of Oliktok Point, and a 545 dam
high 400 nm north of Wrangel Island. Ridging has pushed north
over the state with the axis over Anchorage to Point Hope. Broad
troughing over the Bering Sea with a strong shortwave over the
Chukotsk Peninsula to Eastern Norton Sound. Strong south flow will
persist over the Bering Sea as a 499 dam low persists over the
Sea of Ohkotsk. Another strong shortwave has moved over the
southern Bering Sea to the Central Aleutians. This afternoon the
troughing over the Arctic Coast will dissipate as ridging
continues to push north and rotate to the northeast with the axis
over Whittier to Utqiagvik. The shortwave over the Chukotsk
Peninsula will move north over the Western Arctic extending east
from over Wrangel Island to 100 nm north of Prudhoe Bay. Saturday
morning the ridge axis will be over Western Prince William Sound
to Deadhorse. The shortwave over the Arctic will continue north,
while another shortwave will move across the Bering Sea to lie
from the Gulf of Anadyr to Norton Sound, while another moves over
the Western Bering Sea. At 850 hpa...The pool of near -30C that
was over the Seward Peninsula yesterday has moved over the
Northeast Interior and Eastern Arctic Coast. The -10C isotherm has
moved north to lie from Eagle to Diomede, and the 0C isotherm is
moving over the gulf coast. This afternoon that cold pool will
exit to the northeast as the -10C isotherm moves to lie from Eagle
to Cape Lisburne. Warm air will surge north into the Lower Yukon
Delta and the Kuskokwim Delta with temperatures around 0C surging
to just south of Minchumina this evening, and to the Nenana Hills
and Nenana by Saturday morning before temperatures cool. Another
surge of warm air will push into the same areas Saturday night and
Sunday morning, and is expected to push further north to the
southern Seward Peninsula, and east into the Tanana Flats, but
remain south of the Tanana River.

Surface...High pressure over most of the state with a 1042 mb
high south of the Gulf of Alaska, a 1044 mb high near Bettles, and
a 1050 mb high 300 nm north of Utqiagvik. Weak troughing is over
the Arctic Coast, and the Gulf of Alaska Coast. Broad low pressure
to the west is pushing into the West Coast from a 980 mb low just
moving into the Western Bering Sea. A weather front has moved
north to the Norton Sound Coast as it weakens and will move
northwest today as it continues to weaken. Leeside troughing
north of the Brooks Range develops this morning and strengthens
through the day. Another front is moving across the Alaska
Peninsula this morning and will move up the West Coast through the
day bringing mixed precipitation to the Lower Yukon Delta and the
Upper Kuskokwim Valley. This afternoon the high in the Arctic
will be 300 nm north of Prudhoe Bay at 1052 mb, while a 1055 mb
high will be near Arctic Village. Leeside troughing will start to
develop north of the Alaska Range, while the high to the south
will be 400 nm south of Yakutat at 1039 mb. Broad low pressure
will remain across the Bering Sea and another front will move to
the Central Aleutians. Saturday morning the high in the Arctic
will merge into high pressure in the Yukon Territory with high
pressure extending northwest across the Arctic. Troughing in the
Arctic Plain will strengthen with a 1039 mb low developing near
Deadhorse. High pressure will continue to push west into the Upper
Yukon Flats with a 1052 mb high near Old Crow YT. Leeside
troughing north of the Alaska Range will continue to strengthen,
and high pressure will push west into the Copper River Basin while
the high to the south will move into the Gulf of Alaska 250 nm
southwest of Yakutat. A 1030 mb low will develop near Holy Cross
along the front moving up the West Coast Saturday morning then
dissipate. High pressure in the Upper Yukon Flats will push north
to the Seward Peninsula Saturday afternoon with a 1035 mb high in
the Bendeleben Mountains. Sunday morning another front will move
north into the Lower Yukon Delta and the Upper Kuskokwim Valley
bringing another round of mix precipitation.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...A mix of clouds. Winds generally
offshore 5 to 15 mph today will be turning from the northeast to
east at 5 to 15 mph Saturday. Winds in the Brooks Range south at 5
to 15 mph kicking up to 10 to 25 mph today with some blowing and
drifting snow. High temperatures today will range from the single
digits above in the Brooks Range to around 10 below on the coast
and in the plains. Saturday highs will range from the teens above
in the Brooks Range, to the single digits above along the coast
and in the plains. Low temperatures tonight will be in the single
digits above to the teens and 20s below.

West Coast and Western Interior...Snow and blowing snow this
morning as a weakening front moves into the Chukchi Sea.
Conditions will improve for the afternoon, but winds will pack
back up with more snow and blowing snow in the Kotzebue Sound
region. A mix of precipitation mainly south of Anvik and Nikolai
today as a front moves into the area with a surge of warm air. The
front will continue north as it weakens. Another front will move
north into the area Sunday with another round of mixed
precipitation, this time as far north as the Norton Sound Coast
from Nome east, but remaining south of Galena. Snowfall up to 2
inches, with locally up to 4 inches. Up to two tenths of an inch
of freezing rain is expected with the snow today, with trace
amounts as far north as Nome on Sunday. High temperatures today in
the single digits above inland to near 30 above on the Lower
Yukon Delta Coast. Saturday highs in the teens above to the lower
30s above. Low temperatures tonight will range from single digits
below to the lower 20s.

Central and Eastern Interior...Some clearing today as high
pressure builds into the area. A front moving to the Lower Yukon
Delta will send a surge of warm air northeast to Minchumina with a
slight chance of freezing rain tonight. Another front will push
warm air further north and east into the Southern Interior,
mainly south of the Tanana River, Sunday with another chance of
freezing rain as far east as the Nenana Hills and Nenana and the
Parks Highway from the Nenana Hills to Healy. Mainly chances of
snow to the north of the Tanana River. Winds variable to 10 mph.
High temperatures today will range from the lower 30s above in
the Alaska Range around zero in the Upper Yukon Flats. Highs
Saturday range from the mid 30s above to around zero east of
Arctic Village. Around Fairbanks highs today will be around 10
above and Saturday in the mid 20s above. Low temperatures tonight
will range from around 15 below in the Yukon Flats to around 20
above in the Alaska Range. Fairbanks low will be around 5 above.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...A Weather front will spread
snow north and east across the state into Wednesday before
tapering off. Snowfall of 2 to 6 inches is possible. Some clearing
behind the front in the Interior and another front moves into the
Lower Yukon Delta. Temperatures will be above climatological
normals through Wednesday, then near normal.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ227.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ209.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-210.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ201.
     Gale Warning for PKZ215-220.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ225.

&&

$$

SDB JAN 23


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