Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 171405
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
505 AM AKST Sat Nov 17 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Synopsis...
Cloud cover and a mix of wintery precipitation will continue
to move across the southwest into the western Interior as low
pressure in the Bering Sea tracks east. Weak Chinook conditions
across the Alaska Range and Tanana Valley will gradually ramp up
Sunday as snow begins to impact the southern slopes. East winds
and patchy clouds will persist across the North Slope over the
next few days.

Aloft 500 mb...
A longwave trough over the eastern Bering Sea contains a 521 dam
height minima 350 nm southeast of St. Lawrence Island. A 574 dam
high off the Washington coast extends a ridge axis northward
across British Colombia into the Eastern Interior and eastern
Arctic Coast. The longwave pattern progression will remain
relatively slow through Sunday, though a series of shortwaves
will continue to track northeastward from the Gulf of Alaska into
the Interior. By Monday, the longwave trough will begin to track
east and will encompass much of the state by Tuesday with the
ridge displaced well east into Canada.

Models...
No major malfunctions of note with regard to the 17/06Z surface
analysis. Models maintain good continuity through 12Z. Aloft,
models now maintain solid agreement in the longwave progression
through early next week, and reasonable concensus on shortwaves
through this time.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Brisk east winds and patchy fog and stratus will be the main
features which will persist over the next few days. High pressure
over Banks Island will gradually weaken through Sunday, allowing
winds to briefly abate through that time. However by late Sunday,
a more potent surface high will move south from the high arctic to
reinforce the Banks Island system. Consequently, strong cold east
winds are expected early in the week. Moisture associated with
shortwave systems moving north through the Interior should reach
the central and eastern Brooks Range early Monday and bring snowy
conditions through the mid week.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Weakly defined surface low pressure southeast of Nunivak will
continue to send moisture onshore as frontal boundaries propagate
northeastward. Warm air will move up from the Bering as well
resulting in mixed rain, snow, and freezing rain south and west
of a line from Gambell to Nome to Unalakleet to McGrath. Snowfall
amounts through Monday will generally be in the 1 to 3 inch range
across much of the immediate coast and southwestern Interior. The
greatest amounts of up to 5 inches will fall along the south
facing shores of Norton Sound and the Chukchi coast. Winter
Weather Advisories are in effect for the southwest coast and lower
Yukon Valley, mainly due to possibility of ice accumulation of
less than 0.10 inch.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Chinook conditions across the Alaska Range continue to keep much
of the region dry. Cloud cover continues to moderate temperatures
and will result in marginally warmer temperatures over the next
few days. However, the intrusion of warm air through Alaska Range
Passes will spell chances for freezing precip along the highways.
Winter Weather Advisories have been issued due to chances for
freezing rain and snow along with increasing winds to 45 mph
Saturday afternoon. Chinook conditions will winds down late Monday
and allow moisture to penetrate farther into the Interior. Snow
will likely develop Monday along a stalled occluded front
spanning the central Brooks Range to the Yukon Flats. Broad
troughing across the state will result in widespread areas of
light snow and cooling temperatures into mid next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ225-
AKZ226.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ230-
PKZ235.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

COWMAN NOV 18


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