822
FXAK69 PAFG 192301
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
201 PM AKST Sun Jan 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

A series of storms will impact the west coast through the week.
A stronger front will set up over the west coast Tuesday into
Wedneesday. A heavy band of snow will set up from the Y-K Delta
to the Kobuk Valley. There is still some uncertainty on the exact
location of the narrow arctic front, as well as the snow amounts.
Winter Storm Watches have been issued for the west coast. Another
low will impact the west coast Thursday into Friday. Chances for
snow increase over the Interior next weekend, then turning much
colder towards the end of the month over much of the area.

DISCUSSION...

Key Weather Messages:

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Temperatures are beginning to warm in the Interior this morning.
  The highs throughout the week will be in the 20s.

- Southerly gap winds will continue through Isabell Pass the
  remainder of this evening. There could be gusts up to 60 mph. A
  Tanana Valley Jet will continue through tomorrow night with
  Delta Junction gusting up to 50 mph. Wind Advisories still in
  effect through the early evening.

- Snowfall will return to the Interior tonight. Accumulations
  will remain light as there isn`t a lot of moisture to be had in
  the atmosphere. Here in Fairbanks we should expect up to an inch
  of snowfall. The Richardson Highway south of Trims Camp
  however, will see some heavier snowfall with accumulations of 7
  to 10 inches through tonight.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Monday there will be some brief calm conditions as another low
  paired with a strong arctic front moves into the Bering by
  Monday evening. This arctic front will potentially bring a
  narrow band of long duration heavy snowfall from the Y-K Delta
  to the Kobuk Valley. The exact location of the band is still
  uncertain, however currently we are looking at it to be from
  Hooper Bay to Unalakleet then to Ambler with it`s western edge
  of the band being somewhere in between Elim and Nome. Snow
  totals could be up to a foot in some spots depending on snow
  ratios. Winter Storm Watches have been issued for these areas.

- The system on Tuesday looks to northeasterly wind gusts up to 35
  mph from the Seward Peninsula to the Y-K Delta. We could see
  significant visibility restrictions in areas that are receiving
  the heaviest snow as well as gusty winds.

- After this next system moves out of the area Wednesday morning
  there will be another system Thursday and Friday. This system
  looks to be bring a quick shot of snow the West Coast.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Chinook flow will continue today bringing near record warm
  temperatures from the Brooks Range to the Arctic Coast.
  Temperatures are currently above freezing across the Arctic
  Plains and along the coast east of Wainwright.

- Monday evening there will be some falling snow as well as
  southerly gap winds through the Brooks Range passes up to 40
  mph. Blowing snow could create visibility restrictions through
  the overnight and into Tuesday.

Forecast Analysis and Confidence...

Upper level pattern shows chinook flow over the Interior, and
shortwaves riding up the west coast of Alaska today. An upper
level low near Wrangel Island will continue to track to the NE
over the Arctic. Another upper low will move into Bristol By on
Tuesday. Southwestly flow will set up over the west coast and
Interior Thursday and into the weekend.

Monday night there will be an arctic low that moves east from
Wrangell Island that will have an arctic front draped to the
southwest. This front will catch up to an inverted trough that is
associated with a 990 mb low south of St. George Island. There
will be rapid frontogenesis along this boundary creating a very
narrow band of heavy snowfall. There is still some uncertainty on
the placement of the heavy snowband. Have opted to issue Winter
Storm Watches for now. We are trending to the ECMWF solution as
the ECMWF/GFS ensemble support that solution as well as the Nam.
Snow totals will be 8 to 12" of snow along this boundary. Some
areas would receive less due to lower snow ratios and some could
get more. Models are also in disagreement on the timing of the
Thursday/Friday system over the west coast.

Extended Forecast Days 4-8...

Next weekend we will see the ridging over the Eastern Interior
fully break down as a strong polar low moves across the high
arctic and an arctic front goes through the Interior. We have seen
2 days of continuity with the ECMWF/GFS Ensembles as well as their
deterministic models showing this arctic front coming through the
interior, so our confidence of this occuring is going up. This
front would bring some gusty winds to the Interior as well as
snow. All of the models are showing southwesterly flow going into
the Interior, which is our preferred flow to get heavier snowfall
here in Fairbanks. There is still a lot of uncertainty with snow
totals and timing. Longer range deterministic models showing
colder than normal air mass over N Alaska towards the end of the
month. We will continue to monitor.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ801.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ837-849.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ850.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ813-816-819.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ822-823.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ824>826-829-830.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ809.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ801.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803-850-853.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804-809-816-855.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805-807-808-851-852.
     Gale Warning for PKZ810-856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811-857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812-813-858-859.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-815-860-861.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ817.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ854.
&&

$$