Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 152348 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
648 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

...00z Aviation Update...

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through this
cycle. Can`t rule out a brief/isolated shower Sunday morning,
however, the primary story will be gusty southerly winds. Winds
will begin to decrease shortly as the sunsets across Deep South
Texas. Overnight expect winds to hang right around 10kts or so. By
late morning, winds will increase once again similar to today with
some gusts above 20kts at times not out of the question. Although
low, some guidance suggests there could be a very small window of
MVFR ceilings for BRO and HRL Sunday morning after 12z. Left this
out for now, but may need to add a brief window of slightly lower
cigs between 12z and 14z Sunday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 244 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019/

SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night):Streamer showers showed up
this morning producing a few sprinkles over the Gulf waters,
Laguna Madre and the eastern three counties. A repeat of this
activity with with possible isolated daytime sea breeze convection
may occur through Sunday night as modest southerly flow, with a
slight tropical tap, persist in between a mid-level low pressure
trough over the Southern Plains and surface high pressure
extending across the Gulf. Winds to decouple this evening with the
modest pressure gradient remaining in tact through Sunday as the
mid-level trough will be slightly slower moving east maintaining
breezy conditions Sunday.

The moderate southerly flow and the added Gulf moisture to keep
overnight lows slightly higher the next two nights lifting
minimums into the upper 70s to lower 80s. As for high temperatures
Sunday, guidance temperatures may be underachieving by a few
degrees and with more sun than clouds tomorrow bumped temperatures
up just by a few degrees over most guidance values. Heat indices
to maintain recent values (103-109 degrees) with models guidance
keeping dew points near seasonal normals.

LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday): A modestly stable upper air
pattern will prevail through the period, with a lack of
significant disturbances directly affecting the local area.
Likewise, high pressure over much of the Gulf will result in
summertime onshore breezes and Gulf moisture moving up from the
south. Winds will strengthen a bit Wednesday through Saturday as a
series of shortwave troughs move out of the West and into the
Plains, producing pressure falls upstream and a tighter gradient.
Instability associated with an exiting short wave trough over East
Texas will provide the best chance of showers early in the
forecast, but rain chances will be limited after that, at best.
Similarly, partly cloudy skies on Monday will shift toward more
sunshine as the week progresses. Already warm weather will trend
hotter through the week. Heat index values of 107 to 112 degrees
will be typical through midweek, but values in the mid teens will
become more possible the latter half of the work week and into the
weekend.

MARINE:
Now through Sunday Night: Surface high pressure extending across
the Gulf of Mexico will continue to combine with a trough of
lower pressure over West Texas and the Southern Plains. The peak
of the pressure gradient occurs tonight into Sunday morning before
a gradually weakening occurs later Sunday. Winds and seas have
been slightly below small craft advisory levels so far this
afternoon but should meet criteria over the Gulf waters tonight so
will maintain the advisory there. On the Laguna, may drop the SCA
and replace with SCEC for the afternoon marine package. SCEC is
anticipated for both the Laguna and Gulf waters Sunday.

Monday through Thursday night...Moderate to fresh southeast to
south winds and moderate seas will prevail through the period.
Small craft should exercise caution to low end small craft
advisory conditions will be possible on Monday and then again
Wednesday night through Thursday night.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory for winds until 7 PM CDT this evening for
     GMZ130-132-135.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

$$

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Aviation Update...Frye-55


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