Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 191939
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
239 PM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night): Sunny, hot, and dry
weather will continue in the short term. Though a mid level short
wave trough with an embedded low will slice across the central
Plains, ridging over the area will not completely break down, and
high pressure will remain in control over the Gulf of Mexico. A
weak surface front will push into central Texas during the period,
but shouldn`t penetrate much farther south, and will thus have
slim to no impact on local weather conditions. The near to above
normal temperature trend will continue. Low temperatures will be
in the 75 to 80 degree range, while high temperatures will range
from the 90s east to the century mark and above west of I-69E.
That will mean heat index values pushing 104 to 109 degrees for a
few hours Monday afternoon. Southeast to south winds will be
slightly weaker on Monday as compared to today, but will still be
moderate to breezy, and will be light at night.


.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday): Long term forecast continues
to show the dominant ridge across the Desert Southwest shifting
eastward toward Texas, This will further deflect any weather
system well away from most of Texas during the upcoming week, and
keep the atmosphere dry throughout the parcel. With PW values not
rising above 1.8, current dry and hot forecast remains in effect
through at least Friday. With the most humid air remaining
confined to a very shallow layer at the surface, heat index
readings will likely only reach the 105 to 108 level through the
week. Winds will generally remain 10 mph or less through the
period, except for brief periods in the afternoon when the
seabreeze moves inland.


&&

.MARINE:
Now through Monday night: As the pressure gradient relaxes
tonight, southeast to south winds will decrease, with small craft
should exercise caution conditions continuing over the Gulf, but
with winds decreasing to moderate over the Laguna. Moderate
southeast winds and moderate seas will occur Monday and Monday
night across all waters.

Tuesday through Friday: Marine conditions improve through the
upcoming week as the pressure gradient remains relaxed, and high
pressure dominates the northwest Gulf. Winds will generally remain
10 to 15 knots for the Laguna Madre and 5 to 10 for the Gulf
waters. Wave heights will likely get no higher than 2 feet, with
only a light chop during the day on the Laguna.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  81  93  80  93 /   0  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          80  95  80  96 /   0  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            80  98  79  98 /   0  10  10  10
MCALLEN              80 100  80 100 /   0  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      79 102  79 101 /   0  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   82  89  81  88 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory for winds until 8 PM CDT this evening for
     GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

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