Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 212333
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
733 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
After a beautiful spring day across the North Country, cloud cover
will once again build across the region and lead to above normal
temperatures tonight. In addition a few rain showers will be
possible across the Adirondack and Green Mountains late this
afternoon into this evening before any instability begins to wane.
Monday will be another nice day as temperatures warm into the mid
60s to near 70 degrees albeit under cloudy skies as a low pressure
system passes to our east. Tuesday will be the last day of above
normal temperatures for the week with temps once again in the 60s. A
cold front will track across the North Country Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning and will bring a return of seasonable temperatures
through the remainder of the week. A few more chances for
precipitation will be possible through Friday but no big rain events
are expected at this time.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 733 PM EDT Sunday...Forecast is on track this evening.
Showers have developed along a convergent boundary that has
shifted southeast interacting with terrain features first over
the Adirondacks and now over the Greens. showers that developed
over the Adirondacks are now weakening, while showers over the
Greens are blossoming. Temperatures quickly cooled as soon as
clouds moved in and adjusted hourly temperatures towards the
latest obs. Gradual cooling is expected with mostly cloudy skies
this evening with the low temperature forecast on track.

Remaining shower activity this evening will dwindle quickly
into the evening hours with the loss of diurnal instability.
Cloud cover will be on the increase tonight as our moisture
transport vectors shift back to the south and we advect in a
little more Atlantic air. A weak coastal low will begin to
develop off the Virginia coast late tonight into Monday morning
and drift to the northeast throughout the day on Monday. This
system could bring a quarter of an inch of rainfall to southeast
and far eastern Vermont but it looks like much of the North
Country will remain on the dry side due to the track of the low
being well off to the east. Temperatures on Monday will be quite
tricky and heavily depends on cloud cover. MOS guidance
suggests temperatures in the mid 60s to lower 70s on Monday
while raw guidance suggests low to upper 60s. The big difference
between these, after further interrogation, is narrowed down to
cloud cover timing and the amount of cloud cover. With the
further east track, I have gone on the warmer side of guidance
with temperatures in the mid 60s to near 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 302 PM EDT Sunday...Between systems on Tuesday with weak closed
500 mb low immediately off the coast and slowly moving away and
northern stream shortwave moving into the Great Lakes by
Tuesday night and along the Quebec border by Wednesday. Surface
low across Ontario/Quebec but front will be moving through
Tuesday night with showers...esp west late Tuesday. The airmass
is slightly unstable ahead of front but currently looks like not
enough to mention thunder. Another mild day with Highs in the
60s. Rainfall amounts around 1/4 inch, thus no issues.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 302 PM EDT Sunday...Cooler cyclonic flow with 500 mb closed low
just north in Quebec will mean some instability clouds/showers,
esp northern areas and mountains on Wednesday.

We get into some very minor shortwave ridging in overall broad WSW
flow across the Great Lakes and Northeast on Wednesday night-
Thursday for dry conditions.

Within this broad WSW flow/trof are two distinct shortwaves...a
southern one riding across OH River valley with a decent
surface reflection to our south Friday with a northern stream
shortwave diving into this system Friday night-Saturday should
bring showers/rain Friday-Friday night and possibly linger into
midday Saturday before departing NE.

Broad WNW flow and elongated surface high from Hudson bay to
northern Plains moves across Saturday night-Sunday.

Temperatures running seasonable for most of this period with Highs
in the 50s with lows in 30s/40s but does look slightly cooler for
Saturday-Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00Z Tuesday...Currently VFR at all terminals with light
showers near KPBG, KRUT, and KMPV. Showers could bring brief
periods of MVFR ceilings before waning 01-04Z. Later tonight,
ceilings will begin to lower with most terminals will see
ceilings of 2500ft to 3500ft agl from 06Z to 14Z. At KSLK,
ceilings will likely fall towards 700-1000ft agl and for a
longer duration. Winds decreasing to less than 5 knots tonight
out of the north to northwest. Some variability or terrain
driven winds possible as well. Wind speeds increase beyond 12Z
to 5 to 10 knots out of the northwest. Another system to the
southeast could bring brief showers to KRUT and KMPV 15Z onward.


Outlook...

Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clay
NEAR TERM...Clay/Haynes
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...Haynes



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