Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 230521
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1221 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 420 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019

Isolated to scattered showers have developed in the far south
during peak heating. Forecast has been updated to reflect this and
any showers should dissipate by 7 PM as the atmosphere begins to
cool.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019

High pressure centered in the northern Plains bringing a
delightful day to the dvn cwa. Other than sct high-based cu there
was plenty of sunshine along with temperatures in the mid 70s to
around 80 and comfortable humidity.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019

Tonight: High pressure bringing very comfortable weather in the
short term. With clear skies, a dry airmass and light winds good
radiational cooling should drop temperatures into the upper 50s at
most locations. These readings are similar to what was observed in
central/southern MN last night.

Tuesday: High pressure in control so plenty of sunshine with
afternoon temperatures rising into the lower 80s, but dewpoints
will be comfortable in the upper 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019

A mainly dry and warm period but nothing extreme.

Tuesday night: An upper level disturbance riding southeast in the
eastern trough may trigger isolated showers or storms in northern
IL in the evening hours. The NAMNEST suggests this but the HRRR
keeps it in northeast IL. Confidence is low having any storms as
far west as the dvn cwa so will keep it dry for now and let later
shifts monitor the model trends.

Wednesday through Friday: Dry and warm with near normal
temperatures with the area under a northwest flow and sprawling
high pressure at the surface. Highs will be in the 80s with lows
in the 60s.

Saturday through Monday: Flow becomes more zonal allowing the heat
and humidity to return, but nothing like the heat wave we recently
had. (h8 temperatures are progged at +20c instead of the +27
during the heat wave). Temperatures look to push to around 90
with lows in the 60s. GFS/ECMWF similar in bringing a cold front
into the area next Monday with the potential for thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019

Quiet weather is expected to last through Tuesday night, with
light northwest winds, good visibility, and any cloud cover
building during the day, around 5000 ft. The threat for any
showers is extremely low, and should remain northeast of our
terminals in Iowa and Illinois.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...Haase
SHORT TERM...Haase
LONG TERM...Haase
AVIATION...Ervin


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