Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 302342
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
542 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 215 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

Arctic air is now fully established over the entire area, with a
sunny, cold day taking place. Winds of 10 to 20 mph have brought
wind chills to the zero to -10 range over the CWA since early this
morning. This is certainly a classic cold winter day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 215 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

Wind Chill Advisory will be needed for tonight roughly along and
north of Highway 30, where combination of deep snow pack and the
coldest 925mb temperatures are forecast tonight. While winds will
not be strong, and could be near calm at times, the combination of
temperatures in the -10 to -16 range and winds of 3 to 7 mph,
will create wind chills/apparent temperatures of -15 to -25F. This
is a situation where anything other than a calm wind will bring
terribly cold wind chills.

Farther south tonight, it`ll still be very cold ! However, a thin
to zero snow pack should allow for lows in the zero to -10 range,
and wind chills of -5 to -15.

The cold start will linger through the morning Tuesday, before
winds swing around to the southwest, and increase to 5 to 10 mph,
while temperatures rise to the teens to lower 20s by mid
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 215 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

Key Messages...

1) Most of this week will deal with Arctic air in some way;
moving in or moving out.

2) Moderation Wednesday/Thursday looks brief, and breezy.

3) Moderation for the weekend ahead looks on track.

A dry forecast is in place through the week, as low level moisture
is lacking in all the transitions from Arctic to zonal flow /
downslope influenced air and back again.

Tuesday night, after a chilly day mainly in the teens, we should
see a quick evening drop off into the -5 to +5 range, before
stabilizing or rising towards morning with southwest winds
increasing.

Wednesday, a breezy day will offset the moderating temperatures,
as with wind chills remaining in the zero to -5 range north to 5
to 15 south. By Wednesday night and Thursday, the flow aloft
quickly transitions back to northwest flow, and this will bring
another cold front through during the day Thursday, thus, our
northwest 1/2 should remain below freezing through the day
Thursday. If the 12Z EC is right, Thursday will be a cold and
windy day...so we`ll keep an eye on that period for needing colder
temperatures.

Thursday night through Friday evening, we`re in the Arctic air
again, with lows below zero north to single digits south. Highs
Friday, like today, should be single digits north the teens south,
as another cold pool of Arctic air spreads south with a ~1040mb
surface high over the Midwest.

Southwest flow should spread over the region for Saturday, with
Sunday seeing a cold fropa, but at this time, this should be
disconnected from any Arctic air.

Extended deterministic models are hinting at another trof of low
pressure moving through the Midwest in zonal flow aloft in the
Monday- Wednesday period next week. Should that take place, there
could be some rain or snow possible in that time frame.

ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 528 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

High pressure will build into the area through the forecast period
resulting in VFR TAFs. KBRL will have few to sct 7kft cloud deck
will linger near KBRL into this evening before skies clearing.
Winds will become light and variable tonight before switching to
the west after by 18 UTC with speeds of 5 to 10 knots.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Wind Chill Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Tuesday
     for Benton-Buchanan-Clinton-Delaware-Dubuque-Jackson-Jones-
     Linn.

IL...Wind Chill Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Tuesday
     for Carroll-Jo Daviess-Stephenson.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Ervin
SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...Ervin
AVIATION...Cousins


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