Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 161208 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
708 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
Currently MVFR cigs for area sites with the exception of KAUS.
However, still thinking that it will go down to MVFR top of the hour
and at least through 14Z. VFR conditions are forecast for area
terminals around the 16Z hour. South winds of 10 to 15 knots with
gusts up to 25 are possible through the period, especially for the
I-35 sites midday into the evening hours.

A convective boundary is forecast to push across the area later this
afternoon and evening with storms continuing overnight. Have kept
mentioning VCTS for the I-35 sites from this afternoon into the
overnight period to account for this possible scenario(still some
uncertainties with timing and area coverage).

KDRT is forecast to lift to VFR around 15Z and remain for much of
the period. Cigs do go lower a category around 11Z Monday. Southeast
winds of 8 to 12 knots with gusts up to 20 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019/

SHORT TERM (Today through Monday)...
Radar imagery from several hours ago showed a few strong to severe
storms across northern Edwards county. This activity has since
dissipated, with only a few light echoes ongoing across portions of
the Hill Country. Elsewhere, a complex of storms continues across
portions of north Texas into southern Oklahoma, with an outflow
boundary noted just south of the D/FW metroplex.

For this morning, increased moisture along with a 30-40kt low-level
jet should result in a few showers mainly along and east of the I-35
corridor. As we head into the afternoon and early evening hours, we
could see a few thunderstorms develop across portions of the Hill
Country and along and east of I-35, with chances a little higher
along Highway 77 given deeper moisture. In addition, we could see a
stray storm or two across western Val Verde county and we have
mentioned a low chance in the latest forecast. The forecast for the
late evening and overnight hours remains uncertain as much will
depend on the extent of convective development to our north and how
this convection interacts with any leftover outflow boundaries. The
global models differ on QPF placement and the hi-res models also
differ with exactly where the best chance of storms will exist
overnight. For now, we have highlighted areas east of Highway 281
with the best chance for showers and storms overnight given the flow
in the mid and upper levels should trend to a more northwesterly
direction overnight. Should convection develop farther west than
currently anticipated, we would need to shift higher rain chances
back westward to cover the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau.
If a convective complex does impact the region, some severe storms
are possible, with high winds and large hail the main concerns. In
addition, given the fairly weak flow and available moisture in the
atmosphere, some locally heavy rainfall is certainly possible with
slow-moving storms. Currently, the Storm Prediction Center has most
of our region in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 5), with northern
Burnet and Williamson counties in a Slight Risk (Level 2 out of 5).

As for temperatures today, expect another round of highs in the 90s
to near 100 along the Rio Grande.

Rain chances on Monday will likely hinge on what transpires late
tonight. With the somewhat active northwest flow aloft, we will
mention rain chances for the Hill Country and along/east of the I-35
corridor. Highs on Monday will be very similar to forecast highs
today.

LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
The subtropical ridge axis tries to build briefly on Tuesday, but
mid-level shortwave activity moving across KS/OK hamper the ridge
development. While most areas should remain dry on Tuesday, we will
keep a low chance of showers and storms in the forecast for western
Val Verde county and portions of the Hill Country and east of I-35.

The subtropical ridge looks to remain the dominant weather feature
through the remainder of the forecast. While the mid-level heights
are not forecast to be terribly strong, we will see enough influence
from the mid-level ridge to result in dry and hot conditions during
the middle and late portions of the upcoming week. Highs on Wednesday
through Friday will be in the mid 90s to near 105 degrees. With
plenty of humidity in place, afternoon heat index values will peak in
the 102-110 degree range for areas along the Rio Grande and along and
east of the I-35 corridor.

Late in the forecast period, there are some signs the subtropical
ridge will begin to weaken as an upper level trough approaches from
the west. For now, we will only show a slight decrease in
temperatures for Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              93  74  92  75  96 /  30  50  40  -   10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  93  73  92  74  96 /  30  50  40   0  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     92  72  92  74  96 /  20  40  30  10  10
Burnet Muni Airport            92  71  91  73  95 /  20  50  30  10  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           97  74  96  76  98 /  10  20   0  -    0
Georgetown Muni Airport        93  73  92  74  96 /  30  50  40  10  20
Hondo Muni Airport             98  74  97  74 100 /  10  30  10  -    0
San Marcos Muni Airport        93  72  93  74  97 /  30  40  40  -   10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   92  74  92  75  95 /  50  40  40  -   20
San Antonio Intl Airport       95  74  94  75  97 /  20  40  20  10  10
Stinson Muni Airport           95  74  94  76  97 /  10  30  20  -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Aviation...17
Short-Term/Long-Term...Platt



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