Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 150533
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1233 AM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018

.AVIATION...
All terminals are currently VFR, but we expect MVFR ceilings to
develop in Austin and San Antonio within the next hour or two. VFR
conditions will prevail at DRT until around sunrise when ceilings
will drop to MVFR. All airports will be back to VFR by late morning.
winds will increase to 10 to 15 kts this afternoon. Low ceilings will
develop again overnight Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...
Much drier conditions were observed across South Central Texas today,
save for a few passing showers for the Edwards Plateau this morning
and coastal plains this afternoon. Expect the coastal plains showers
to linger through sunset, rapidly diminishing after sunset. More
robust convection was observed developing over the Sierra Madre
Oriental. Dry low-level profiles contributing to modest DCAPE values
may allow for one or two storms to propagate along outflow to near
or across the Rio Grande into Val Verde county late this afternoon
or evening. However, high resolution guidance has only intermittently
supported this given overall weak steering winds and not carrying
more than a 20 percent chance of rain across that area this evening.

Another round of low clouds along the Interstate 35 corridor
overnight will keep lows off the Edwards Plateau in the mid to upper
70s, with lower 70s on the Plateau. Upper ridging expands across the
region during the day on Wednesday, allowing for a fairly stagnant
pattern of hot and dry weather with highs in the upper 80s to upper
90s. Some of the global models do attempt to bring in some sea breeze
type showers into the coastal plains counties on Wednesday afternoon,
but only covering this potential with a silent 10 percent of rain
given increasing subsidence from the upper ridge. Lows Wednesday
night are again forecast to be in the 70s as nocturnal stratus
develops.

LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Temperatures will gradually warm each day Thursday through the
weekend with upper ridging in place. Heat index values will also
increase during this time, with many locations along and east of the
Interstate 35 corridor seeing heat index values around 105 this
weekend. No rain is expected through the weekend. By Monday, a cold
front begins to slide down the High Plains towards the region. Medium
range guidance differs on how quickly this front actually arrives
given some issues with the evolution of the parent trough that sends
the front into the region. The GFS quickly pulls the trough to the
east and stalls the front somewhere across South Central Texas and
the European digs the trough across the region and offers a more
progressive solution, sweeping the front through the area. Have opted
for a blend of the solutions with isolated to scattered showers
possible along the front as it slides into the region, with best
chances not materializing until late in the forecast (sometime
Tuesday or later). The timing of the front will also play a critical
role for temperatures, as it will not only help moderate temperatures
later in the week with compressional warming ahead of the front
possibly resulting in Monday being one of the hottest days of the
forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              97  77  98  77  98 /  -   -    0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  97  75  98  75  98 /  -   -    0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     96  75  98  74  98 /  -   -    0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            96  74  97  74  97 /  -   -    0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           95  77  98  77  99 /  -   -    0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        97  76  99  75  99 /  -   -    0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             98  74 100  74  99 /  -   -    0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        97  75  98  75  98 /  -   -    0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   97  77  98  76  98 /  -   -   -    0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       96  77  98  76  98 /  -   -    0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           97  77  98  77  98 /  -   -   -    0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...05
Synoptic/Grids...Treadway


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