440
FXUS63 KFGF 081708
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1208 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much warmer this weekend with elevated fire weather
  potential.

- Snow chances return for the workweek.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 625 AM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Cloud cover continues to spread into the area, with a few radar
returns noted; however, most observation sites across the area
remain dry. Winds continue out of the west to southwest this
morning, with a few gusts to near 20 mph. Winds will increase by
mid morning as low level winds increase and mix to the surface.
Gusts up to 40 mph are possible this afternoon, especially west
of the Red River.

UPDATE
Issued at 1146 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Vort digging down into eastern ND this evening has brought some
light rain showers to portions of the CWA. Most locations have
seen sprinkles at best, but a few spots got a couple of
hundredths of rain. Southwest to west winds have bumped up temps
above freezing and that should continue into the overnight, even
as another weak vort moving through brings the possibility of a
few more rain showers according to the CAMs. Better
precipitation chances with the cold front late tomorrow into
tomorrow night, so increased POPs a bit higher than the NBM.
Some snow mixing in is possible with the colder air arriving
tomorrow evening, but amounts look light and impacts minimal at
this point.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1254 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

...Synopsis...

Surface analysis this afternoon indicates a surface low pressure
over central Saskatchewan with an attached warm front stretching
from north to south over the Red River Valley. Behind this
front, temperatures are quickly increasing to above freezing.
This should continue to expand through the afternoon as warm air
advection overcomes radiational processes from the current
snowpack. As we progress into the evening, warm air advection
aloft will intensify isentropic ascent, bringing a swath of
light to moderate rainfall. This will be fairly quick moving and
should remain rain thanks to the warm temperatures, although
there is the low chance for some snow to mix in depending on the
variability of temperature profiles. Regardless, impacts will be
very limited as accumulating snow is very unlikely and rain
accumulations should range generally between 0.01-0.05".
Snowpack erosion continues through the week as above normal
temperatures continue. Frequent chances for rain/snow arise
through next week as we remain with elevated 500mb flow across
the region. High uncertainty exists towards the end of the
period as the cutoff low continues to generate very high model
dispersion in trajectory of the flow.

...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...

With the current warming pattern through the weekend, we do
begin to turn our attention to fire weather. The highest
confidence is in winds with a modest confidence in minimum
relative humidity. Strong westerly winds between 20-25 mph will
exist through Sunday afternoon with occasional gusts
approaching 35-40 mph. For today, winds will remain mostly
southwesterly with a shift to westerly after sunset. Relative
humidity values will remain below 50% in regions without any
meaningful snowpack. Based on satellite, this is pretty much a
west to east line of Valley City to Park Rapids and all points
southward. The warmest spots tomorrow could fall as low as the
30s. With the elevated wind speeds expected through tomorrow,
near critical fire weather conditions may arise in the southern
portions of our area. Finer fuels should be the primary concern
as ERC values remain generally between 20-40% in the forecast
through tomorrow based on NRCC percentile plots and HRB values
sit at 30.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

The primary aviation impacts for the TAF period will come from
low level wind shear and periodic wind gusts to 30-35 knots.
This afternoon, westerly winds will continue with gradually
falling ceilings, but will maintain VFR status. This will
continue into the evening hours, with intermittent chances for
rain. Impacts from rain should remain minimal and isolated to
brief reductions in visibility to MVFR. Snow may mix in at times
and continue to reduce visibility, but again aviation impacts
should remain fairly limited. Around this time frame, a strong
low level jet will be sweeping through bringing a period of
low level wind shear. All of this should exit the region just
after midnight, giving way to VFR conditions and no aviation
impacts.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Lynch/JR
DISCUSSION...Perroux
AVIATION...Perroux