Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 232344

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
644 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019

Issued at 644 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019

A hint of a sprinkle moving across the northeast ND and the northern
RRV attm... in a mainly mid to high level clouds deck. Chance for
measurable rain remains quite low. No significant updates needed
to the existing fcst package.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019

500 mb short wave moving east thru N Manitoba this aftn. Enough
mid level moisture in warm advection zone to create some mid level
showers ahead of the 500 mb short wave trough thru south central
Manitoba into northeastern ND. Added sprinkles to NE ND into NW MN
thru early evening as this band moves thru. Gusty south-southwest
winds will diminish a bit after this band moves through and turn
more southwest. Max warm layer sfc-950 mb over the area late tonight
into Wednesday morning ahead of sfc trough which will pass
through Wednesday midday and aftn. Wed temps will be warmer than
todays in most areas, except DVL basin. Moisture looks very
limited with the front and instability limited. Therefore chances
of precip has diminished from what it was showing previously.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019

Wednesday night looks mainly clear and cool with lows upper 30s to
lower 40s.

A gradual cool down is expected for the second half of the week with
rain chances increasing for the weekend and into the start of the
next work week. However, before the rain chances move in critical
fire weather conditions will be possible on Thursday.


After the passage of a cold front on Wednesday, temperatures will
generally be cooler for Thursday with highs only reaching into the
50s/low 60s. However, the passage of a mid level trough along with a
building surface high over MT/western ND, mid level cold advection,
and clear skies will foster strong northwesterly winds sustained at
20 to 25 mph that could gust up to 35 mph at times. These winds
combined with minimum relative humidity values in the 20-30% range
could create near critical fire weather conditions from central ND
to northwest MN Thursday afternoon.

Friday through Saturday...

Generally dry conditions are expected again for Friday with highs
only reaching into the mid to upper 50s. Weaker winds at 10-15 mph
will lessen the fire weather potential, though minimum RH values
will remain in the 25-30% range.

An upper level wave propagating southeastward within a broad region
of northwesterly flow aloft is expected to deepen in the lee of the
Rockies Friday night and into Saturday. As this occurs,
precipitation is expected to develop Saturday across the Dakotas in
response to a developing mid level warm front/increased isentropic
ascent. Most locations will likely see only a few tenths of an inch
of rainfall, though deterministic guidance suggests that stronger
pockets of mid level frontogenesis and instability could cause areas
of higher rainfall amounts (upwards of 0.75") across the far
southern Red River Valley. Generally, areas south of the Highway 2
corridor will see the best chances for rain, but ensemble spread
and run-to-run variability in deterministic guidances prohibits
higher confidence in rainfall placement. Additionally, sub-freezing
mid level temperatures and surface temperatures diurnally cooling
down to near freezing will support a rain/snow mix at times
overnight Saturday and into early Sunday morning.

Sunday through Monday...

Rain chances will continue into Sunday and Monday as a second upper
level wave pushes through the region. Similar to the Fri/Sat setup,
rain will likely develop within the broad warm frontal zone north
and east of the developing surface low. However, the degree of
moisture return for this second wave is questionable, so rainfall
amounts will likely not be as high as the Fri/Sat system. Exact
placement of rainfall is difficult to say at this point, but
ensemble guidance does suggest that the entire forecast area (from
the ND/SD border to the international border) could see some rain. A
rain/snow mix will again be possible Sunday night to Monday morning,
but no snow accumulations are expected.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019

A hint of a sprinkle moving across the northeast ND and the northern
RRV a mainly mid to high level clouds deck. Else expect VFR
conds throughout the FA during the period. Gusty south to southwest
winds will settle down a bit with sunset, maintaining a 8 to 10
kt base windspeeds throughout the RRV corridor and eastern ND
overnight. Expect FROPA through the late afternoon on Wednesday.


Updated at 640 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019

No sig updates expected this evening.

Nearly all forecast points along the mainstem Red River and its
tributaries continue to show gradual declines in water levels. The
only exception to this is the Red River at Pembina where the
flood wave continues to pass through the far northern Red River.
Pembina is just now reaching into Major flood stage and will
likely continue to slowly rise through the rest of the week.

No widespread precipitation events are expected until the weekend.
Although forecast confidence in rainfall placement and amounts is
low, this rain will most likely only hinder water level decline
rather than cause any additional water level rises. However, this
system should be monitored through the weekend as confidence in the
rain forecast, and confidence in the subsequent impacts to the
rivers, increases.



Areal and river point flood warnings continue across portions of
the region. Refer to the latest flood warnings and statements for
detailed information on specific locations.


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