Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 070259

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
859 PM CST Mon Feb 6 2023

Issued at 859 PM CST Mon Feb 6 2023

The boundary continues to progress very slowly to the east, now
somewhere along a line from Baudette to just east of Fergus Falls.
Breezy winds have overtaken areas to the west of the Red River
Valley, but they are still fairly low along and to the east. There
have been some lower clouds developing along the edges of the
clouds along the boundary. Hopefully these will continue to push
eastward as well, and not hang up.

UPDATE Issued at 540 PM CST Mon Feb 6 2023

The line of mixed precipitation has shifted to a Warroad to Ada to
Fargo-Moorhead line. It is pretty thin, and will likely not result
in any impacts. Temperatures have bumped up nicely, with some
melting occurring. It may get a little breezy for a while this
evening, but with the absence of much cold advection, don`t expect
much more than that. With lower winds and the warm temperatures,
also don`t expect much drifting snow. It is scattering out behind
the front, but with the steady northwest winds, don`t anticipate
any fog or too much of a temperature drop overnight.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 306 PM CST Mon Feb 6 2023

Fropa bringing light precip and winds this afternoon and evening
will be the main concern in the short term. Reports of light rain
or drizzle, light snow and ice pellets as the band of precip
moved across the Grand Forks area. Duration and amounts should be
minimal and impacts  initially as the band continue to fight dry
air. As the band moves east this evening expanding coverage of the
light snow is expected but the duration will be brief. Amounts
will generally be less than a half inch for any area.

Attention turns to the NW winds in the wake of the fropa. Gusts of
35 to 40 mph have occurred upstream in NW ND. Weak 925mb cold air
advection preventing the stronger mixing at 850mb from efficiently
coming down. Will hold off on any wind advisory this evening yet a
few gusts to 45mph will be possible in the upper Sheyenne near
New Rockford to Copperstown to Valley City. Those NW winds will
push across the entire FA overnight clearing the precip and skies
from west to east with lows tomorrow morning in the mid teens.

Highs tomorrow with full sun and westerly winds will be in the
low to mid 30s which is about 15 degrees above normal.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 306 PM CST Mon Feb 6 2023

Long term impacts look to be minor, and attributed to possible snow
showers. Not expecting warning level impacts, but falling snow and
wind may lead to some reduced visibilities. Overall, an above
average week temperature wise with some precipitation chances.

Wednesday night into Thursday will be the first chance for
precipitation in the long term. Looking at snow showers moving
through the area through Thursday afternoon and possibly early
evening. Accumulations look to be around an inch (Probs for greater
than an inch are between 10-30%). An issue arises when it comes to
timing of the winds. If the winds kick in at the same time snow is
falling (which looks more likely in the guidance), then reduced
visibilities are possible during the morning and afternoon commutes.

After the system exits our area, cold air advection behind the front
will hold steady for Friday. It will be short-lived as temperatures
will rebound back into the 20s above zero for the weekend.

There are indications in some guidance that we could see another
system to end the weekend and begin the next work week. This is
pretty uncertain though, as each ensemble has its own idea of what
will happen and have yet to come to a cohesive solution. Something
to monitor though as the week goes on.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 540 PM CST Mon Feb 6 2023

Cloud heights are rising along and behind the front moving
eastward into Minnesota. Northwest winds should increase for a
while this evening, then fall again very late tonight. Since the
front has yet to pass KBJI, there may still be an hour or so of a
mixed precipitation threat as it passes.




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