Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 242345
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
645 PM CDT Fri Sep 24 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 644 PM CDT Fri Sep 24 2021

Winds are slowly decreasing, but RH remains low (around 25% in the
RRV and locations west) as mild temperatures and very low Td
values linger. Expect RH recovery as temperatures start to fall
with sunset. Low Tds and a cool air mass aloft will create the
potential for patchy frost across much of our CWA, however little
has changed from concerns of previous shift (clouds/winds). I
kept Frost Advisory as depicted with other counties much less
certain outside of south central ND. Main adjustment was to
better account for mid/high clouds in MN and better clearing in ND
this evening. A period of opaque mid level clouds are still
expected to overspread our north and east later tonight, so I
matched those trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Fri Sep 24 2021

Temperatures and frost potential tonight will be the forecast
problems for the period.

Northwesterly flow aloft will continue behind the upper trough
digging into MN/WI, with the surface high currently over the
Northern Plains starting to drop south overnight. A weak
reinforcing shortwave this evening could bring some clouds and a
few sprinkles/light rain showers to the Lake of the Woods area
tonight. However, amounts look extremely light and there is a
question of how much will reach the ground at all. The cloud cover
in northwestern MN should help keep temps from falling off too
much. This will not be the case over portions of southeastern ND,
where clear skies and lighter winds close to the center of the
high will allow readings to drop to the mid 30s. Dew points are
very dry everywhere and the potential is there for frost along the
higher terrain of eastern ND all the way to the Canadian border.
However, think the northern counties will have more winds and more
clouds, so will keep them without headlines for now. Southeastern
ND will see less wind and warm air advection so have them getting
down to 34-35 and going with a frost advisory.

Temperatures should rebound quickly Saturday under sunshine and
rising heights as the ridge starts to develop to our west. The
surface trough developing in the lee of the Rockies will bring a
west to southwesterly component to the wind and help warming, so
have highs getting into the mid 70s across our west with 60s along
the eastern tier. Increasing dew points and the southwest surface
wind, along with cloud cover, will keep temps Saturday night much
warmer with no frost threat expected.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Fri Sep 24 2021

Little to no impacts are expected through the end of the weekend
and into the first half of the work week. The main story to start
the period will be a return to well above normal temperatures
followed by a more active weather pattern for the second half of
the week.

Cluster analysis lends to high confidence in strong 500 mb ridging
dominating the central portion of the CONUS for the first half of
the period. This will allow for quiet and dry conditions through
Tuesday with high temperatures increasing a bit day by day. Tuesday
looks to be the warmest day with high temperatures solidly in the
80s. The record high for both the Grand Forks and Fargo areas on
Tuesday is 90 degrees which is likely out of reach (per ensemble
guidance); regardless, it will still be quite warm for this time of
year.

By midweek, the strong ridge finally begins to propagate eastward
with the region returning to more of a southwesterly flow pattern.
This will likely bring a more active pattern for the second half of
the week with precipitation chances returning by Wednesday. There
could be several periods of relatively greater precipitation chances
through the end of the week but details are uncertain at this time.
Thunder chances (and the potential for associated higher
precipitation amounts) isn`t out of the question as temperatures
remain above normal (although cooler than earlier in the week) and
moderate instability still a possibility.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Fri Sep 24 2021

VFR conditions should prevail across eastern ND and northwest MN,
as pockets of mid clouds (6-15 kft agl) pass through the the
region during the TAF period (mainly in MN). These eventually
clear completely by the end of the TAF period for most locations.
Northwest winds decrease this evening with sunset becoming west
5-10kt. Gusts 15-20kt are possible once again during the daytime
period Saturday before shifting to the southwest and decreasing
later in the afternoon.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for NDZ024-028-038-
     049-052.

MN...None.
$$

UPDATE...DJR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...Lee
AVIATION...DJR


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