Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 170859

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
359 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

Water vapor loop indicated an upper level trough over nw MT/ID/NV.
Warm advection precip to occur today east of upper trough. Broad
upper level jet will move across the Northern Plains and a
commensurate low level jet will shift across the Dakotas today and

700 hpa theta-e gradient will shift east late tonight and should
temporarily end precip. An east-west upper level jet will nose in
along the International border Thu. Jet dynamics may produce weak
instabilities and some thunder for Thu.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

The zonal flow pattern continues for Thursday night through
Saturday. The SPC day 2 outlook shows most of the FA covered with a
marginal risk for severe weather, probably mostly for Thursday
night. By 00Z Friday, a surface trough or cold front is expected to
set up over central North Dakota. There should be ample heat and
humidity over the FA with a nice upper jet along the Canadian
border. This results in strong 0-6km bulk shear. Uncertainty looks
to be in the strength and location of any potential short wave. The
00Z-12z Friday time frame is just beyond the outer limits of the
high resolution models. The current NAM12 and GFS20 runs show more
activity across the southern half of the FA as compared to the
north, so will have to see what later runs have in store. However,
do expect activity to fire over central North Dakota and expand into
the FA Thursday evening. Not sure how long any of this activity will
linger into Friday.

The closed 500mb low that the earlier models were showing over the
Northern Plains this weekend is still there in some regard. Current
model runs are weaker, depicting more of a short wave tracking
through on Sunday or Sunday night. This could bring another chance
for showers and storms. For the remainder of the Monday and Tuesday
time frame, a strong western ridge builds up, leaving the Northern
Plains in amplifying flow. At this point, models show little if any
precipitation during this time frame.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

Mainly VFR conditions thru the pd with mid level moisture. Though
local MVFR cigs psbl near any t-storm late tonight thru Wednesday
along with local IFR vsbys in rain. But those will be brief
reductions. Predominate winds turning south-southeast Wed AM 5 to
10 kts then to the west by late Wed aftn/eve.




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