Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 162350
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
650 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

Main forecast challenge in the short term is the thunderstorm
chances for tonight. Latest round of CAMs keep the local area pretty
much dry tonight. Some convection may roll out of western
Nebraska, but will likely be weakening by the time it reaches our
CWA. Another complex of thunderstorms will also likely initiate
over South Dakota. Rising 700mb temperatures to 13-15C should
steer this cluster well to the northeast of the area as well. All
that being said, models struggled yesterday, so confidence isn`t
super high, therefore a slight chance for storms was maintained in
northern portions of the area.

Residual cloud cover from any overnight convection also gives some
uncertainty to how quickly we warm up tomorrow. Nevertheless, models
have trended a touch warmer, so I am relatively confident that most
locations will see heat index values 102 to 110 degrees by late
afternoon. With this excessive heat and overnight lows only falling
to the low-mid 70s, an Excessive Heat Warning was issued for the
entire area through Friday.

By late tomorrow afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to
redevelop ahead of a diffuse front. A few storms could be severe
as there is plenty of instability (4000J/kg+ of MLCAPE) to work
with, but shear is lacking so I think "marginal" risk from SPC is
reasonable. Thunderstorms will continue through the evening and
overnight and will gradually wane and exit the area by Thursday
morning.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

As mentioned above, heat will continue Thursday and Friday as the
CONUS remains in pretty zonal flow aloft. Highs will be in the
mid 90s to 100s each day...but slightly lower dewpoints may keep
heat index values a few degrees cooler...especially on Friday. Dry
conditions also prevail through this period.

The next chance for thunderstorms arrives Saturday night into Sunday
as a front moves into the area and brings some relief from the heat.
Temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will be more bearable, with highs
"only" in the 80s to near 90 degrees instead of the 90s and 100s. It
also looks like we will head into another mostly dry period for next
week as mid and upper level ridge build over the Rockies putting us
in fairly quiet northwest flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Wednesday)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019

Marginal shear will occur overnight and have sided with putting
this in the forecast. Kept thunder out of the forecast as CAMs
still suggest that any convection should be north of the
terminals.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Excessive Heat Warning from 1 PM Wednesday to 10 PM CDT Friday
     for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...Excessive Heat Warning from 1 PM Wednesday to 10 PM CDT Friday
     for KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mangels
LONG TERM...Mangels
AVIATION...Heinlein


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