Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 241720

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1220 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

Today will likely be the best day of the week with full sunshine,
light winds, and highs in the mid to upper 70s. We will see a
storm system passing well to our south over Texas while the next
shortwave trough embedded within the northern stream of the jet
will not move into our area until tonight. Consequently, we expect
a very nice day.

Tonight, we`ll see that next short wave tracking southeast across
South Dakota and northern Nebraska bring in a chance for rain
showers, primarily north of I-80. Have increased rainfall chances
across our northern zones, but although the chances have
increased amounts are still expected to be rather light ranging
from a trace to 0.25 inches.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

Forecast concerns center around thunderstorm chances late Friday
and again Sunday night, and also rain chances early next week with
cooling temperatures where we can`t rule out frost.

A cold front will pass through Wednesday night and we decided to
bump up the north winds behind the front on Thursday when it could
be a bit gusty. Temperatures will also be a few degrees cooler
behind the front, but still in the lower 70s for most areas.

This is still a ways out there, but as of right now it appears
that we could have at least a marginal threat of severe
thunderstorms late Friday afternoon into Friday night. The next
shortwave will be moving in from the west. Southerly flow out
ahead of this system will bring low level moisture northward back
into our area with dewpoints possibly climbing back into the 50s
resulting in increasing instability. There should also be at least
decent deep layer shear so we`ll just need to see how this set up
evolves over the next few days.

It will be dry with subsidence behind a departing storm system,
but expect gusty northwest winds that could gust to over 40 or 45
mph. In addition, have cooled highs back on Friday with cool air
advection so we are now looking at upper 50s to lower 60s across
Nebraska zones to perhaps near 70 over northern Kansas.

Sunday through Tuesday...
We should get some return southerly flow on Sunday to warm
temperatures back up into the mid 60s to around 70 in what should
be the nicer day of the weekend. The next storm system moves into
the region Sunday night bringing a chance for thunderstorms.
Cooler air moves in early next week with some models even cooler
than our current forecast, so could see highs/lows lowered in
coming forecast updates if these cooler trends hold. Can not rule
out some frost early next week especially across northwestern
zones if some of the cooler model solutions verify.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Thursday)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

A weak cold front will slide through the TAF sites overnight which
will bring chances for VCSH. Guidance is also hinting at a MVFR
ceilings around sunrise Thursday. Northwesterly winds also
increase behind the front and winds will gust into the mid 20s for
most of the day Thursday. &&



LONG TERM...Wesely
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