Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 151124
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
724 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Storm Humberto off the Florida east coast should veer
east and away from the United States later this week. Larger
waves and stronger rip currents at the beaches should be the
storm`s only local impacts. A cold front pushing through the
area late Tuesday will bring cooler weather for the second half
of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
The mid level pattern will be amplifying through the period but
the surface features not so much. Really any semblance of a
weak front are essentially gone with weakening high pressure
across the region. The flow between this feature and distant
Humberto may continue to feed a shower or two across the coastal
waters and a bit inland from time to time but guidance has
seemingly been backing off. Temperatures will remain on the warm
side via mostly sinking air from the affects of Humberto as
well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The latest NHC forecast for Humberto has the storm strengthening
into a hurricane, but moving no further north than about 31
degrees north latitude before turning due east and moving away
from the East Coast. No direct impacts are expected for our area
other than beach hazards from large waves.

A large area of north and northeasterly winds between Humberto
and high pressure over New England should push a cold front
southward into the Carolinas on Tuesday. Inland highs at or
above 90 degrees could be the last occurrence of the year.
Climatological last dates for 90+ temps are Sep 9 in Myrtle
Beach, Sep 12 in Wilmington, Sep 21 in Florence, and Sep 23 in
Lumberton. The approach of this front spells our only chance of
showers through the period too. Model moisture profiles are
quite limited in depth, but I`ll maintain a 20 PoP for isolated
showers Tuesday afternoon and evening as the boundary pushes
south across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
All models agree a high amplitude ridge will cover the Eastern
U.S. on Wednesday. A strong shortwave diving down the east side
of the ridge should pick up Hurricane Humberto and take it out
to sea for the second half of the week. There is good model
consensus with this solution, but there are a few outliers
including the 00z Canadian operational run and a few ECMWF
ensemble members that show a more complex interaction between
the shortwave and Humberto, pirouetting the merged system back
closer to the East Coast by Friday. My forecast will follow
NHC`s forecast and the GFS/ECMWF solution that take Humberto
and its moisture and wind well offshore and away from the
Carolinas.

The source region for our Wednesday-Friday airmass should be
eastern Canada. Dewpoints should fall into the 50s and low 60s
and daytime high temperatures should only rise into the lower
80s. Nighttime lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s will feel
amazing, and should be the coolest in our area since June 15.
Several days of sunshine and warm water should gradually modify
the airmass, and temperatures and humidity will begin to creep
up next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Stratus and fog across much of the area this morning will continue
and hang around for a few hours longer than normal with the
persistent NE wind around 5-10 knots. Expect slow recovery this
afternoon with one or two showers along the sea breeze. This will be
the only place where precip is possible with a strong subsidizing
ridge in place. Skies clear overnight but the moisture goes nowhere.
Expect IFR stratus and fog again on Monday.

Extended...Predominantly VFR conditions, except for possible
fog and/or low stratus in the early morning hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Not surprisingly with a strong tropical storm and soon to be
hurricane offshore and high pressure inland its northeast winds
all the time. This pattern will likely be in place for some time
and certainly through the near term period. Wind speeds aren`t
overly impressive hovering around ten knots or so but will be
increasing in time to 15-20 knots by later Monday. A similar
trend for significant seas which should be entering small craft
criteria later this morning once again probably to reside there
for some time.

Humberto should remain several hundred miles east of Florida,
making it only as far north as about 31 degrees north latitude
(the Florida-Georgia border) before turning sharply right and
moving directly away from the U.S. East Coast Monday night and
Tuesday. Model agreement is high, but not unanimous with this
idea. A cold front will be pushed southward behind Humberto,
leading to a 36 hour period of breezy northeast winds Tuesday
night through early Thursday.

Large swells propagating back toward the coast from Humberto
will continue through much of the week. These 10-11 second
southeasterly swells will turn more easterly by Wednesday, and
in combination with local wind chop should be enough to keep a
Small Craft Advisory going through Thursday, especially north of
Cape Fear where an easterly swell has the most local impact.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for SCZ054-056.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ056.
NC...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for NCZ106-108-110.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ110.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...TRA
AVIATION...21
MARINE...TRA/SHK


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