Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 210534

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1233 AM EST Wed Nov 21 2018

Cool and dry air will spread across the Carolinas tonight
through Thanksgiving as high pressure builds from the west.
Low pressure from the Gulf will bring a rainy start to the


As of 800 PM Tuesday...Cold front via night infrared satellite
imagery continues to push through the coastal plain with west
winds shifting to the north. Some patchy fog with visibility
reductions between 5 and 6 miles ahead of the boundary have been
occurring after sunset with dew point readings in the lower
50s. Directly behind the front, dew points in the mid 30s to
lower 40s have no visibility reductions under clear skies. Once
dry air moves into the area during the next few hours, expecting
patchy ground-type fog to diminish.

The rest of the forecast tonight into Wednesday remains on track
with some patchy frost possible towards the early morning hours
Wednesday toward sunrise. Afternoon high temperatures Wednesday under
clear skies will be about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than Tuesday,
which is also 5 to 10 degrees below normal for November.


As of 300 PM Tuesday...Essentially a temperature forecast through
the period as cold surface high pressure builds down into the
area from the north/northeast. There remains the possibility of
freezing conditions area wide for Friday morning but just a
little too far out in time to make that call. The NAM/MET has
been too cold for the coldest temperatures so far this season is
advertising the coldest readings. The GFS/MAV numbers seem more
reasonable especially with an advection event as the surface
winds should remain elevated. Long story short, stay tuned.
Little to no change with the Thanksgiving Day forecast, sunny
and cool with highs in the middle 50s.


As of 300 PM Tuesday...After a cold start Friday morning, the
main feature in the extended period will be the storm system
developing across the lower Mississippi Valley later Friday and
moving across our area Saturday. Overall the system doesn`t look
quite as amplified as earlier versions hence the QPF fields are
a little more disorganized. Still pops remain high for Friday
night into Saturday and I did incrementally increase values to
address a little more certainty. A quick moving secondary
system, that once looked like quite the rainmaker for our area
is now very progressive in nature and will bring a cold front
quickly through the area with slight to low chance pops early
nest week. Overall temperatures remain above climatology for
most of the period but the late front Monday seems to usher in
the coldest airmass of the season just beyond this forecast


As of 06Z...Current VFR conditions at all terminals will continue
throughout TAF period due to surface high pressure building in.
Winds will remain out of the north around 5 to 8 kts with a slight
backing of the winds from north to northwest during the afternoon.

Extended Outlook...VFR to prevail next couple of days. Storm
system  Friday night into Saturday could bring rain and
potential IFR/MVFR conditions to the region. VFR Sunday.


As of 800 PM Tuesday...As cold front pushes through the offshore
waters, west winds 15 to 20 mph with isolated occasional gusts
up to 25 were reported by offshore buoys. Wave heights have
been on the order of 3 to 5 feet. Small craft should exercise
caution during the next few hours until the cold front completes
the pass over the coastal waters.

High pressure Wednesday will bring NNW winds between 10 and 15
kts and waves between 2 and 3 feet offshore.

As of 300 PM Tuesday...Winds and seas will build through the period
as surface high pressure builds in from the northeast. This on the
strength of good mid level confluence to the west. Overall expect
small craft conditions to develop Thursday and persist well into the
next period. More specifically winds will increase from 10-15 knots
to 15-20 (maybe a little over at times) with seas following a
similar upward trend from 2-4 feet up to 4-7 feet.

As of 300 PM Tuesday...Lower confidence in regards to winds
early in the period as models are erratic showing a closed low
here and there as the mid level forcing for a decent storm
system wavers. I basically maintained the overall trend of
northeast winds early, transitioning to southeast then finally
west to northwest as the system exits the area late in the
weekend. Seas could eclipse small craft criteria early with a
lingering fetch from the northeast then the decent flow with the
passing storm system. Some relief is expected with the offshore
flow later in the period.





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