Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 031404
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1004 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperature and humidity will increase in the days ahead as
Bermuda high pressure settles offshore. Showers and
thunderstorms will return Thursday into the weekend as tropical
moisture from the Gulf of Mexico streams northward into the
Carolinas. Rain chances will diminish early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
No changes to the forecast this morning with the morning update.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
By afternoon the Carolinas will be surrounded by convection to the
south, west and north, but locally shielded by a deep cap of dry air
aloft. The NW flow of air at mountain top level will bring elevated
850-775 mb RH, resulting in a few afternoon cumulus clouds to join
a very warm day, above average for June 3rd.

The cap will hold through about all of Thursday before a deep plume
of tropically derived moisture encroaches from southerly latitudes.
This results in the onset of rain chances beginning late Thursday,
favored over NE SC first. The clouds Thursday will suppress max-T
values a bit, so it looks like today is the warmer of the 2 days.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
By Thursday night, tropical moisture will be advecting up the
SE US coast in deep SSW flow. This will lead to shower and
thunderstorm potential across the area, increasing in coverage
with heating Friday as highs reach into the mid and upper 80s
away from the coast. PoPs will diminish somewhat Friday night as
the deepest moisture pushes off the coast, coupled with the
loss of heating.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The airmass will remain moist and unstable Saturday, with
scattered showers and storms expected to increase through the
afternoon. A shortwave will sweep across the Mid-Atlantic
Saturday night, with a significant push of mid-level dry air
across the area Sunday. Although enough low-level moisture will
remain for scattered convection to develop, coverage should be
less than Saturday. The exact location of the front will also
play a large role on how much convection develops, and where,
and that remains to be seen. By Monday, it appears that the
tropical system will be lifting north just west of the
Mississippi River. A high- amplitude mid/upper ridge axis will
be in place from the Ohio River Valley southeast across Georgia
to the east Florida coast. This will maintain a dry NNW flow
across the Carolinas, resulting in minimal chances for
convection.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Southwest winds will become gusty by mid morning, with CU forming
along the resultant by late morning. Gusts over 20 kts possible this
afternoon as the resultant gets squeezed. Winds will stay above
8 kts tonight, with no fog expected.

Extended Outlook...Increasing moisture will bring showers and
TSTMs by late Thursday, prevailing into this weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Advisory flags for smaller craft will fly in stiff SW breezes though
this evening, before a weakening surface trough inland begins to
lose identity, easing the pressure gradient locally. SW wind-seas
will remain choppy, steep, short-crested, and challenging. The
atmosphere remains dry so no showers or TSTMs until late Thursday
when tropical moisture wells up from the south. Expect SW waves of 3-
5 ft, highest offshore, every 5 seconds from trough to trough, or 2.5
seconds from crest to trough, makings for hazardous seas for smaller
craft today through this evening.

Southerly flow 10-15 kt will continue Thursday night around
Bermuda high pressure. As the pressure gradient becomes enhanced
on Friday, speeds will increase to 15-20 kt Friday afternoon
and night. More of a SW trajectory can be expected Saturday as a
front drops towards the Mid-Atlantic states. The front will
slow as it approaches, and is expected to remain north of the
waters through the day Sunday. Winds will likely diminish back
to 10-15 kt Sunday with the approach of the front. Seas of 2-3
ft Thursday night will build to 3-4 ft Friday night through
Saturday night before subsiding to 2-3 ft throughout on Sunday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
With full moon approaching Friday, minor flooding is forecasted
for the Downtown Wilmington Cape Fear River location with each
evening high tide this week.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...CRM
LONG TERM...CRM
AVIATION...MJC
MARINE...MJC/CRM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ILM



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