Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 221956

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
356 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2019

High pressure will migrate across the South shifting overhead
tonight and off the coast on Tuesday into midweek. A weak cold
front will drop south into North Carolina and may affect the
area Wednesday night into Thursday. Low pressure moving across
the Southeast should bring showers and thunderstorms on Friday
followed by dry high pressure for the weekend.


As of 3 PM Monday...High pressure will migrate across the
Southeast, moving overhead tonight and off shore on Tues.
Overall, expect light and variable winds shifting around to a
light return flow Tues aftn. Mid to upper ridge will build aloft
through Tues evening and overall expect air mass to warm with
dry air through the column and subsidence through the mid levels
to maintain a rain free forecast. Temps will be on the rise
through the period with 850 temps rising almost 10c. The
atmosphere will decouple tonight with decent radiational cooling
allowing temps to drop to 50 to 55 most places with mid 40s in
traditionally cooler spots. Plenty of sunshine will bring temps
into the 80s inland, but a cooler sea breeze will keep temps
cooler closer to the coast. A warmer increasingly more humid
return flow will keep most overnight lows closer to 60 Tues


As of 3 PM Monday...Surface high shifts off the coast for Wed as mid-
level ridge builds over the Southeast. The result will be warm and
dry conditions with mostly clear skies for the middle of the week.
Temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s will be possible Wed with
an abundance of sunshine and mid-level subsidence. Expect an
increase in clouds Thu as moisture aloft ahead of the next system,
along the top of the flattening ridge, spreads into the area.
Temperatures will remain well above climo through the period, though
highs on Thu may be a little lower than Wed due to increased cloud
cover. Backdoor front should remain north of the area through Thu
night. Could see a few isolated showers late Thu night as shortwave
rides up the west side of the mid-level ridge.


As of 3 PM Monday...Medium range guidance still having some issues
with systems for the end of the week. Split flow with
northern/southern stream systems continues to befuddle the guidance
as is typical of split flow. At this point have confidence in a few
parts of the forecast.

-High confidence in scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead
 of a cold front Fri afternoon with temps well above climo.

-Southern stream system moves off the Southeast coast Sat with
 zonal mid-level flow for the weekend.

-Temps drop back to climo Sat but return flow Sun, as weak
 surface ridge moves offshore, pushes temps above climo.

-Warming continues next week as mid-level ridge builds north
 from the Gulf of Mexico, limiting precip chances next week.


As of 18Z....High pressure will stay in control through the forecast
period. Upper low has little influence today, with skies nearly
cloud free this afternoon. Moisture profiles are becoming a bit more
favorable for fog formation, and we should see some brief MVFR
visibilities toward Tuesday morning. Light winds on Tuesday with VFR
conditions expected after 12Z.

Extended Outlook...VFR conditions to persist thru much of the
extended period. A frontal boundary is progged to partially back-
door the FA during Wed night into Thurs. And as a result, MVFR
conditions will be possible from shra.


As of 3 PM Monday...Quiet marine conditions tonight through Tues
night as high pressure migrates across the Southeast reaching off
the coast on Tues. Expect SW to W flow tonight and back around to SW
tomorrow, remaining in the 10 to 15 kt range.
Overall, expect W winds to start each morning, becoming S-SW by
early aftn into early eve as sea breeze develops. Seas will be
down to 2 to 3 ft tonight through Tues night. Models show a
small longer period swell up to 15 seconds mixing in through
Tues night into Wed.

High pressure off the coast will maintain southwest flow Wed and
Thu. Gradient becomes a little more defined each afternoon as the
Piedmont trough strengthens. Winds on the high end of the 10 to 15
kt range each afternoon/evening will drop closer to 10 kt overnight.
Seas 2 to 3 ft in the morning will build to 2 to 4 ft each
afternoon/evening as speeds increase. Approaching cold front Fri
maintains southwest flow but gradient remains unchanged with speeds
staying in the 10 to 15 kt range. Front passes Fri night with
offshore flow early Sat becoming northwest and increasing to a solid
15 kt later Sat and Sat night. Seas 2 to 3 ft Fri into Sat will
build to 3 to 4 ft late Sat as northeast flow picks up.





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