Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 302153 AAA
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
453 PM EST Mon Jan 30 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
An extended period of cloudy conditions is in store for this
week with spotty light rain possible Tuesday through Wednesday.
A more potent system will affect the area Thursday into early
Friday before cool, dry high pressure moves in for next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Quick update to the forecast to account for locally dense fog
visible on the Kure Beach Surfchex camera. Peering through the
higher clouds it appears there may be a fog bank from Kure Beach
and Fort Fisher extending eastward 10-20 miles offshore. Other
surfcams show better visibility currently, but trends should be
toward worsening visibility overnight both inland and offshore.
No other significant changes were made to the forecast with this
late afternoon update.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mid-level flow remains zonal with the Carolinas sitting at the
top of a weak, flat ridge. Deep westerly flow continues tonight
and Tue. While this would typically be a dry flow, the
orientation of the flat 5h ridge to the south creates a Pacific
moisture tap, which will ensure an abundance of deep moisture
and a healthy amount of cloud cover through Tue. Surface
boundary will linger south of the area tonight into Tue with
another weak wave along the Gulf Coast traveling along the
boundary. This wave heads northeast, passing just east of the
area on Tue. The lack of isentropic lift ahead of the wave and
the weak nature of the feature really limits rainfall potential
for the area. Cannot rule out some light rain at times,
especially closer to the coast, but not sold on any QPF being
more than a couple hundredths. In fact several solutions keep
most of the region completely dry tomorrow.

Cloud cover and moisture will help keep lows well above climo
tonight. Lows will range from near 50 inland to potentially mid
50s along the coast. Light to calm winds and an abundance of
moisture will lead to fog development tonight, with some areas
possibly seeing dense fog. Dense fog advisory may be needed for
the overnight, but hard to pinpoint locations at this time.
Clouds hang around Tue, but southerly flow in the afternoon will
lead to highs several degrees above climo. Diurnal ranges are
expected to be about 10 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Cloudy skies continue for the short term period with plenty of
low level moisture and decent high cloud coverage, not that
those will be visible. A flat stacked ridge persists over the
Caribbean, with a series of weak impulses riding the top of the
ridge Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Bulk of the PVA
will be across NC, and therefore have slightly higher pops
across northern zones. Stalled front across the area Tuesday
night will have a weak wave move along it before the front is
pushed south on Wednesday as a surface wedge develops due to
high pressure passing well to the north. Overall pops are in the
chance rain and spotty light rain is expected versus any
meaningful accumulations Tuesday night through late Wednesday.
Low temps Tuesday night upper 40s to the north and low 50s with
front across area. Depending on wedge strength and position,
expect a decent gradient in high temps Wednesday with mid 50s
near northern border and low to mid 60s to the south. Lows
Wednesday night in the low 40s, with possibly warmer lows for
most southern counties.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Wedge and cloudy skies continue early Thursday, with high temps
around 50F near northern CWA border and potential low 60s at
southern border as boundary at edge of wedge lingers nearby. A
potent upper shortwave will be moving across TX on Thursday,
Ahead of the shortwave, surface lows develop along the front to
the south Thursday afternoon before moving across the Southeast
late Thursday. This will bring our next chance of meaningful
rainfall with categorical pops Thursday afternoon into overnight
hours.

The front will finally move offshore early Friday as breezy
northerly flow dominates with strong high pressure moving across
the upper midwest. Atmosphere dries pretty quickly on Friday
with PWATs dropping from above an inch to 0.25" and will finally
see clearing skies during the day Friday for the first time all
week. As the surface high moves across to the north Saturday,
will a return of the surface wedge although without the
moisture. Below normal temps prevail Friday through Saturday
night. A weak coastal low may develop Sunday into Monday ahead
of the next upper trough, but still uncertainty in location and
rainfall potential and therefore maintained low pops for now.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR and lower conditions continue at all sites with only CRE
and MYR bouncing between IFR/MVFR/VFR the next few hours. Do
expect a period of ceilings 1k-2k ft late afternoon into early
evening. IFR and lower conditions will be quick to return at all
sites between 02Z and 06Z. Potential for widespread dense fog
with visibility well under 1SM developing after midnight. Low
ceilings will persist beyond 12Z Tue with IFR conditions likely
through the end of the valid TAF period.

Extended Outlook...Potential for MVFR/IFR conditions at times
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tuesday...Ill-defined gradient and weak surface
features will keep winds under 10 kt through Tue. Light
northerly flow tonight will gradually become southerly during
the day Tue. Light winds will keep seas on the lower end of the
2 to 3 ft range with seas being a mix of a southerly wind wave
and an easterly swell.

Tuesday Night through Saturday...Weak surface low moves along
stalled front Tuesday night before a surface wedge develops
inland and the front gets pushed to the south. Winds generally
out of the north-northeast at 10-15 kts Wednesday through
Thursday evening, with gusts to 20 kts Wednesday afternoon. Seas
2 ft early Wednesday build to 2-4 ft by evening hours as NE
wind wave develops. A stronger low moves along the stalled front
across the Southeast late Thursday, bringing higher rain
chances. Front gets pushed offshore by Friday morning, with
breezy north-northeast winds developing behind it for Friday
through Saturday. Gusts 25-30 kts possible Friday night into
Saturday. Seas respond in turn, increasing to 3-5 ft Thursday
night and Friday and 4-6 ft Saturday. Seas Thursday night
through Friday will also be influenced by a brief 3-4 ft 8 sec S
swell component, joining persisting long period E swell and
northerly wind wave.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...TRA
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...III
MARINE...III/VAO


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