Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 191422
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
922 AM EST Sat Jan 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will bring showers and isolated thunderstorms
tonight into early Sunday. Dry Canadian high pressure will
build in behind cold front through early next week and will
provide some of the coldest temperatures so far this winter
season.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 900 AM Saturday...Winds coming around to the east and will
continue to shift to a more SE and eventually S direction as
warm front lifts north. Basically, low clouds, patchy fog and a
few sprinkles will diminish through this afternoon. Expect some
breaks in the clouds and warming temps into the mid 60s. As
winds become southerly and temps and dewpoints rise, some sea
fog may develop later today and move on shore over coastal
locations.

Previous discussion: Latest sfc analysis shows 1002 mb low
pressure taking shape over Arkansas with 1023 mb high pressure
over the DELMARVA. The low will progress east today, and with
its attendant warm front draped across the local area...patchy
fog continues early this morning. With increasing isentropic
lift later in the morning, some light rain is possible (20-30%
PoPs), but any amounts should be very light. Mainly dry wx then
for this aftn with a cold front still off to the west. High
temps today range through the 60s thanks to deep S/SW
flow...about 10 degrees above normal.

Rain chances increase from west to east this evening as the sfc cold
front and associated mid-level shortwave trough approach from the
west. Delayed the timing of the pcpn a bit, but nonetheless still
going with categorical PoPs. Maintained mention of heavy rain and
slight chance of thunder due to some elevated instability. The rain
will end from west to east Sunday morning. Low temps in the mid/upr
50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Saturday...Any lingering showers Sunday morning will be
located along the coast and rapidly moving offshore along with the
frontal passage. The remainder of Sunday afternoon will feature
robust cold and dry advection. Morning highs in the low 60s will
yield to afternoon temperatures that will drop into and then through
the 50s into the upper 40s or colder by sunset. The cold advection
will push Sunday night lows into the low to mid 20s, Sunday night
being the mixed/less cold night of a typical two night Arctic
airmass. As the center of the high makes its closest pass Monday
into Monday night (it`s center latitudinally traversing PA) mixing
will become more shallow. Monday highs will only  manage low 40s
while Monday night lows should radiate a bit lower into the 20s.
Guidance has backed off from its earlier even colder values and with
the center of the high remaining so removed to our north this trend
albeit a minor one, seemed plausible.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 3 AM Saturday...Monday`s chilly high undergoing solar
modification on Tuesday to bring a less cold afternoon though
temperatures remain below climatology. It`s shifting offshore by
Wednesday then allows for legitimate warm advection with moisture
also on the rise. Rain returns to the forecast late Wednesday into
Thursday with the arrival of a cold front being driven by split flow
aloft. Dry and seasonable to slightly cool air expected on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 12Z...A front stalled over the area will lift northward this
morning across the area. IFR ceilings at ILM but VFR everywhere else
with MVFR visibilities along the frontal boundary at KILM, KLBT, and
KFLO. MVFR ceiling are expected along the front and as it lifts
expect VFR conditions by afternoon. A return to MVFR conditions
overnight and increase of winds is expected as strong cold front
approaches from the west and is expected to pass across the TAF
sites between 06 and 12 UTC.

Extended Outlook...MVFR conditions possible Sunday due to showers in
the area. VFR Monday and Tuesday. MVFR conditions possible with a
frontal passage on Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 900 AM Saturday...Sea fog remains possible today with
warm, moist air moving over the relatively colder waters. Winds
and seas ramp up late of the day ahead of the next cold front. A
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect starting late this
evening as winds reach ~25 kt. The front then nears the region
tonight, with 20-25 kt southerly flow continuing ahead of the
front and 5-9 ft seas.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Saturday...Very unsettled through most of the
period as is typically the case with such a strong cold frontal
passage. Boundary in question crosses the waters Sunday morning
sharply veering the already advisory level winds. The turn to
offshore will only cut the wave height at the immediate coast as
wave shadow develops but the rest of the forecast zones will
see steepening faces of seas which will similarly be in advisory
territory. The abating trend will come rather slowly on Monday
with seas following the trend of the wind. Still looks like
Advisory flags to come down around Monday evening as prev
planned.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 AM Saturday...Post-frontal high to our north
progresses eastward on Tuesday allowing winds to turn more
onshore. A further eastward shift on Wednesday further turns
wind to southerly and allows wind and seas to both build.
Cautionary headlines or even and advisory are tough to rule out
by the end of the period.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday
     for AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MAS/RGZ
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MAS/21


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