Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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637
FXUS62 KILM 171619
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1219 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Heat and humidity will continue into early next week as ridging
from high pressure, anchored well offshore from the Southeast
U.S. coast, extends inland across Florida. Showers and
thunderstorms will be isolated at first but they will become
more widespread next week. A cold front will arrive and break
the heat Tuesday or Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1000 AM Wednesday...Temps well into the 80s by mid
morning and expected to reach 90 by late morning. Overall
another repeat of yesterday with heat advisory conditions
expected through this afternoon as temps reach the mid to upper
90s most places inland of the beaches. This heat will combine
with high humidity to produce heat indices up to 107 degrees in
spots, which could result in heat illnesses. Once again, along
with hot and humid weather will come isolated to widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. The main
focus will be along sea breeze and trough inland.

Previous discussion:
Building high pressure aloft and southerly wind flow at ground
level will allow afternoon temperatures to rise into the mid to
upper 90s inland, with values closer to the coast in the upper
80s to lower 90s. Regardless of how high afternoon temperatures
actually reach, the combination with dew points in the mid to
upper 70s will result in afternoon heat indices up to 107 for
many locations. Heat illnesses are possible for those spending
time outdoors during the hours of 12 PM to 7 PM this evening.

Afternoon instability remains across the area today with plenty of
afternoon heating, which will likely lead to another round of
isolated showers and thunderstorms during the peak afternoon
heating.

Heat and chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms continue to
be the headlines in the forecast for Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Wednesday...Mid level ridging will be broad and
expansive through the period across a good part of the country. It
will not be strong enough to cap all convection however and there
may even be some weak shortwave energy that drops in from the
northwest. The seabreeze shouldn`t progress too far inland but will
serve as a convective initiation mechanism as will the well defined
inland piedmont trough. POPs will thus be fairly uniform across the
area and as usual will have a diurnal/afternoon maximum (though
there may be enough shortwave energy Thursday night for a less than
normal diurnal decrease in storms, at least compared to Friday
night). Temperatures will be elevated a few degrees above
climatology but high dewpoints will once again offer up Advisory-
worthy heat indices.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 AM Wednesday...Mid level ridge/surface piedmont trough
will be in place over the weekend, though the former weakens on
Sunday. Interestingly guidance is not suggesting any increase in QPF
on Sunday. The inherited forecast didn`t either and so no tweaks to
POPs have been made. Afternoon heat advisories seem likely once
again both days. Monday and Tuesday will bring about a gradual
pattern change as a trough tries to get established in the eastern
US. Thunderstorm coverage should increase on Monday as the
suppressing effects of the mid level ridge wanes but temperatures
will remain hot enough that yet another heat advisory appears
likely.  Even higher rain chances slated for Tuesday as cold front
approaches while increased cloud cover should finally preclude a
heat advisory.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 12z...VFR. Scattered high clouds throughout TAF period
and few to scattered cumulus today and tomorrow. Isolated
thunderstorms forecasted for this afternoon, starting near the
coast with coverage moving inland throughout day. However,
difficult to pinpoint location and timing of scattered storms
and therefore have left out of TAFs due to small coverage
expected. Elevated winds overnight and marginal moisture will
preclude any fog development overnight. Southerlies between 10
and 15 kts near the coast and 5 to 10 kts inland through
tomorrow afternoon.

Extended Outlook...VFR conditions are expected outside any isolated
to widely scattered convection the first part of the upcoming
week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 1000 AM Wednesday...Light southerly winds with afternoon
gusts up to 20-25 kts as sea breeze circulation develops for the
next 36 hours. Wave heights between 2 to 4 feet expected out of
the southwest around 4 to 6 seconds with swell from the
southeast around 10 seconds.

Winds will remain out of the southwest Thursday night through Friday
night as high pressure remains well offshore. A well defined
piedmont trough will bolster wind speeds by about a category, which
should maintain the offshore 4 ft wave. The mainly wind driven seas
will coexist with a 2 ft 9 second southeasterly swell. Previous
forecasts had very slightly weaker winds Saturday and Sunday but now
this is less certain. The trough may maintain its strength and so
winds may as well. Have trended the forecast accordingly. Weekend
seas will remain similar to those during the week.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
NC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-096-099-
     105>110.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MCK/RGZ
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...MCK/MBB/RGZ



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