Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 302244
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
544 PM EST Mon Jan 30 2023

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 PM EST Mon Jan 30 2023

For all but far southern IN, dry and turning notably colder
tonight as a 1036mb high pressure settles over Kansas and cold,
northwest flow allows 850mb temps to continue to fall over
Indiana. Single-digit lows are guaranteed toward Lafayette, while
lows near 20 are in store for the US-50 corridor.

Speaking of the US-50 corridor, the subtropical jet will be active
over the Tennessee River Valley tonight, with pieces of energy
rounding the top of a ridge somewhat centered over the Florida Keys.
There could be some light snow showers, or drizzle, tonight along
US 50, but the incoming Arctic High may continue to shunt that
snow chance south outside of the forecast area. The latest HREF
and NBM favors precip to fall along and south of the Ohio River.

The thermal trough aloft maximizes on Tuesday; our coldest day of
the forecast period with highs near 20 in the northwest, and near 30
in the southeast.

&&

.Long Term...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 255 PM EST Mon Jan 30 2023

A roller-coaster ride of temperatures lies ahead for the long-
term period with mainly dry conditions.

The subtropical jet remains active through the end of this week, but
strong high pressure moving east during this time will keep
precipitation chances out of our area. There will be a gradual
warming trend Wednesday and Thursday as zonal flow resumes aloft.
Highs on Thursday are on pace to be a couple degrees above normal,
only to be replaced by another dose of cold air Thursday night
through Friday night. This occurs as as an Arctic High emerges from
the Canadian Rockies in the wake of a clipper breezing through
Ontario. Mild, return flow brings warming temperatures once again
for the weekend and into early next week.

One hiccup in that wrap-up sentence is the model disagreement for
Sunday. The ECMWF (and ensemble) favors a dry forecast while the
GFS/GEFS suggests a shortwave dropping in over the Great Lakes could
bring snow and rain chances to much of the state early Sunday
morning.

&&

.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 544 PM EST Mon Jan 30 2023

Impacts:

* MVFR ceilings continuing tonight at KBMG with VFR elsewhere
* VFR conditions on Tuesday

Discussion:

Clouds remain across central Indiana late this afternoon but the
lowest stratus has shifted into southern portions of central Indiana
and points south a strong high pressure over the Missouri Valley is
beginning to exert its influence. Another wave aloft will spread
moisture across the Ohio Valley tonight but precip should remain
south of all of the terminals. Some clearing will also build south
into the area by daybreak Tuesday.

The high will shift east into the lower Great Lakes Tuesday with dry
weather expected. Some sunshine will appear in the morning but RH
progs suggest an expansion of mid and high level clouds during the
afternoon as yet another wave aloft tracks into the western
Tennessee Valley.

Northerly winds tonight will back to northwest by Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

Short Term...Brown
Long Term...Brown
Aviation...Ryan


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