Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 241051

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
651 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2019

The AVIATION Section has been updated below.


Issued at 345 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2019

A low pressure system will bring rain chances to the area through
Thursday. After a brief break Friday, a series of systems will bring
frequent chances for rain Saturday into next week. Much of the next
week will see near normal to below normal temperatures.


.NEAR TERM...(Today)
Issued at 345 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2019

Early this morning some light rain was across southern Illinois and
was moving into the southwestern part of the forecast area. This
rain is associated with some upper energy. A surface front was south
of the Ohio River with an area of low pressure back in Missouri.

The upper energy early this morning will try to bring rain into the
southern half of the area, but will have to compete with a dry
northeast flow at the surface. Will have some chance PoPs south this
morning to account for this.

This afternoon, the front to the south will move back north as a
warm front as the low pressure moves northeast. An upper jet will
add some additional forcing. The best forcing will be across the
southern forecast area, so will go likely or higher PoPs there. Will
keep PoPs in chance category or lower north.

Some instability will work in as well, mainly south, so will have a
thunder mention there as well.

Temperatures today will depend on how much rain actually moves in
this morning and on how thick the cloud cover gets. Some models are
very cool for highs, especially across the north. Will not go quite
as cool as those and stick closer to the blend. However,
temperatures will remain below normal most areas.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 345 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2019

Models are close enough that the model blend initialization
was accepted for most items.

The surface low will move through the area tonight. Best forcing and
moisture should be across the southern forecast area, so allowed for
some likely PoPs there. However, did go on the high end of the
chance category north closer to the center of the low. Chances will
diminish some overnight as forcing weakens.

On Thursday, another upper system will move into the area. Better
forcing will be across the south where better upper energy is. Will
go higher PoPs there with just some slight chance PoPs northwest.

The final upper energy will move through Thursday night. Will go
with chance PoPs most areas.  Friday and Friday night look dry with
high pressure building in.

The model blend looks reasonable for temperatures.


.LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2019

Ensembles indicates a rather strong short wave trough will be
moving through the Great Lakes over the upcoming weekend. In the
wake of this trough, zonal or weak upper ridging expected to
develop across the area by the early parts of next week.

Ensembles in general are stronger with the trough this weekend,
are in starting to come in better agreement with the associated
surface low. The majority of the ensembles suggest a track through
northern Indiana or the southern Great Lakes, although there a
still a few with a track a bit farther south. Will go with PoPs
for showers and thunderstorms on Saturday and Saturday night to
cover this system.

There are still large differences among the ensembles with regards
to the development and location of a frontal system early next
week. As a result, confidence in temperatures and precipitation
potential early next week is lower than normal. No real trends one
way or the other are noted yet. Will continue with PoPs from
Sunday night through next Tuesday for now.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 241200Z TAFS/...
Issued at 650 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2019

Areas of generally light rain expected to linger in the vicinity
of the KBMG/KHUF/KIND terminals until the midday hours.

Otherwise, short term model data suggest additional shower
activity may begin moving into the vicinity of the KHUF/KBMG
terminals from the southwest towards the evening hours. Some
elevated instability may move into southern Indiana late this
afternoon, so there is a small threat for some embedded lightning
strikes after about 242200Z.

Sustained warm and moist advection today should allow for ceilings
to gradually fall from the south, with ceilings possibly reaching
the MVFR category later this afternoon.

Surface winds 070-090 degrees at 5-8 kts early this morning will
gradually veer a bit to 090-120 degrees at 7-10 kts by midday.




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