Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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064
FXUS63 KIND 162206
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
606 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 334 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019

An active weather pattern is expected through Wednesday night as
the remnants of Hurricane Barry move through the area bringing
scattered showers. An upper level ridge is expected to build
starting Thursday bringing dry conditions and the hottest
temperatures of the summer through the weekend. The ridge will
begin to break down this weekend with cooler weather and chances
for showers and thunderstorms late this weekend and early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...

Issued at 334 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019

An active weather pattern is expected through Wednesday night as
the remnants of Hurricane Barry move through the area bringing
scattered showers. An upper level ridge is expected to build
starting Thursday bringing dry conditions and the hottest
temperatures of the summer through the weekend. The ridge will
begin to break down this weekend with cooler weather and chances
for showers and thunderstorms late this weekend and early next
week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Wednesday through Friday/...

Issued at 334 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019

Primary focus for the the period will be on the heat that is
expected on Thursday and Friday. The remnants of Hurricane Barry
will move out Wednesday morning with a few backside showers
possible across our southeast during the day with the best chances
during the morning. Dry weather is expected afterwards with high
pressure building through the rest of the period. This will bring
in the hottest temperatures of the year so far with highs in the
low to mid 90s and dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s on Thursday
and Friday. This will lead to heat indices in the mid 100s and
will likely warrant heat headlines that will be addressed in a
later forecast package. Confidence is fairly high in this
occurring with the only concern being that model dewpoints in the
upper 70s and lower 80s seem a bit high considering the extent of
crop coverage compared to normal for this time of the year.
Trended dewpoints a few degrees lower to account for a high bias
that was seen in the NAM and GFS models that led to a high bias in
the NBM initialization.

High temperatures will be in the upper 80s on Wednesday and the
low to mid 90s on Thursday and Friday. Lows will be in the low to
mid 70s on Wednesday and Thursday nights.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
Issued at 242 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019

The heat and humidity will continue to be the main concern for the
long term as ensembles have the area under a broad upper ridge
through Sunday. The GFS continues to be a sharp and fast outlier
with a Great Lakes trough and associated cold front. Prefer the
slower 12z ECMWF and ensembles that favor dry weather with afternoon
highs in the 90s and heat indices above 100 through Sunday.

After that, a back door front will move in as Canadian high pressure
builds in. This will result in small chances for convection but more
importantly more seasonable weather with afternoon highs in the 80s
next Monday and Tuesday per the blend.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 17/0000Z TAF Issuance/...

Issued at 556 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019

Low associated with the remains of Hurricane Barry is centered
over central IL this evening and is slowly moving east-northeast
about 10-15 kt. Periods of mostly SHRA and some -TSRA are still
possible prior to 17/04Z, then would expect mostly SHRA through
12Z when the center should be north of KIND.

Thus, periods of MVFR/IFR can still be expected tonight, but look
for improvement after 12Z at many sites.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...White
NEAR TERM...White
SHORT TERM...White
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...DM



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