Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 221032
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
632 AM EDT Sun Jul 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 223 AM EDT Sun Jul 22 2018

An upper level low will continue to bring chances for scattered rain
showers today. Temperatures will top out in the mid to upper 70s. A
mainly dry and warmer pattern is expected next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 223 AM EDT Sun Jul 22 2018

Large scale upper trough centered over wrn OH will drop into nrn KY
by evening. Nrn portion of broad trough will bifurcate in response
to vigorous disturbance over NJ wrapping up through ern portion of
upper low. As this unfolds upstream sw through cntrl MI will drive
swwd through this aftn and spurn additional shra/isold tsra over
swrn zones with increasing dry entrainment/subsidence overtaking
areas further northeast. Will widen sw-ne pop gradient further today
and dump pops tonight timed with upper trough splitting. Otherwise
continued extensive cloud cover and nerly sfc flow will limit
diurnal heating with mid-upr 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 223 AM EDT Sun Jul 22 2018

GFS has finally come around to multi-day looks of EC/GEM holding
upper trough axis through the ern OH valley. Local CWA will lie on
subsident side of this feature drop much of prior pops sans extreme
se.

Otherwise upper trough weakens with time as flat mid level ridging
builds into the wrn lakes through mid week. Backing to wrly low
level flow will result in upticking thermal ridging and return of
seasonably warm temps by Tue before cooling back down by Fri as
fairly deep low develops invof James Bay. Height suppression aloft
will focus active frontal zone down along the OH river and south
with little sensible wx expected here.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 624 AM EDT Sun Jul 22 2018

Low clouds will persist through the morning, slowly lifting with
time as the upper low moves away. A few showers are still expected
but no more than VCSH for the time being given scattered nature.
Have opted to remove VCTS for now at KFWA with again even lower
confidence on impacts at airport.

VFR cigs should materialize by later today as drier air tries to
work in, but could see some low clouds and fog move back in after
6Z Mon. Will leave out for now but something to monitor in later
forecasts.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for INZ003.

MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...Fisher


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