Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 011703
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1203 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 300 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

A few flurries are possible across Michigan today but otherwise dry
conditions are anticipated for the entire week. It will be cool and
breezy today with highs in the 30s and wind gusts around 30 mph.
After lows tonight in the teens...temperatures will moderate through
Wednesday. Seasonable temperatures are anticipated through the
week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
Issued at 300 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

A long stretch of very quiet weather is ahead for our area. Only
forecast concern at this point is whether or not we squeeze out a
few flurries in our northern zones today. Latest water vapor imagery
shows well defined shortwave currently digging into the Upper
Midwest and this will swing through southern MI later today. There
is a fairly impressive midlevel cold pool with 500mb temps below -35C
but it remains just N/NE of our CWA border with much poorer
midlevel lapse rates locally. Obviously moisture is a significant
limiting factor as well based on upstream satellite and raobs from
MPX, GRB, and DVN. Forecast soundings indicate an extremely
narrow window of sufficient moisture/instability and lift around
midday. Cold Lake MI doesn`t add much to the equation either with
marginal temp and theta-e profiles largely confined just north of
our area. Will hold with some flurries out of respect for healthy
DCVA and marginal lapse rates but no accumulation or impacts
anticipated.

Steady CAA will stifle diurnal recovery today with afternoon highs
holding generally in the 30s (very similar to current readings) per
bulk of latest guidance. Deep mixing in CAA regime will also promote
some gusty winds...though lack of any abrupt isentropic descent and
overall modest low level gradient wind profiles suggests peak gusts
only around 30 mph...perhaps around 35 mph in our E/NE where slightly
better gradient and mixing resides. Also anticipate a fair amount
of stratocu making it feel a bit "raw" (especially when compared
to yesterday`s warmth).

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 300 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

Split upper level flow eventually becoming more northerly by late
week as longwave pattern amplifies will ensure a long stretch of dry
conditions. Temps will see-saw a bit through the week though
certainly nothing unusual or extreme for March. Our coldest period
will be tonight. Anticipate ideal radiational cooling with clear
skies and calm winds. As such...leaned heavily on colder MOS values
vs. much warmer raw guidance. Steady moderation then expected
through Wed before dry cold front brings return to northerly flow/
light CAA through the end of the week. Did lower NBM high temps for
Fri-Mon given consistent signal for northerly flow and temps
slightly below average. Can`t rule out a shortwave passage with
associated light precip chances over the weekend but much too far
out to predict with any skill and will hold dry through this entire
forecast period. Minor flooding concerns in the Maumee and Wabash
basins will slowly abate through the week given this dry pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1203 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

Shortwave and lake enhancement in cold nw flow may bring a few
flurries or light snow showers with brief visby reductions to KSBN
through 19/20Z. Ceilings, currently variable between high MVFR
and low VFR at both sites, should lift to all VFR by mid
afternoon. Skies will clear out and gusty nw winds will diminish
then into tonight as high pressure settles in.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...Steinwedel


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