Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 161053

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
653 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019

Issued at 425 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019

Rain and a few thunderstorms at times will continue into early
tonight. There is still a chance for periods of heavier rainfall,
mainly south of Route 24. Highs today will range from the lower
70s in south central Lower Michigan to around 80 into central
Indiana. Unsettled weather will continue with the best chances
for additional rainfall about midweek.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 412 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019

Multitude of MCVs east of the Mississippi early this morning.
Concern is that composite outflow will shunt better moisture
southward. Most dominant MCVs is over Eastern Ohio and southwest
Indiana, The first characterized by decaying cold pool dominant
rainfall into western Pennsylvania with better balance trailing
from southern Ohio into east central Indiana. This leading into
the latter, more convectively active bowing segment. Scour from
weaker MCV into western CWA, along with comma head/lake
environment/psuedo front to furthermore squelch best instability
southward today. Best chances for renewed convection this
afternoon/evening appear to be either side of 24 hours QPE
oriented west-southwest to east-northeast through central Indiana,
though greater destabilization farther south may prove more
active. Incursion of mid level dry slot could present a low end
risk for strong to low end severe gusts in 21-03 UTC timeframe.

Given highest rainfall totals in excess of 2 inches in extreme
southern Jay County Indiana to 1.4 inches in extreme southeast
Allen County Ohio, potential for training cells, uncertainty of
northern extent of storms, will continue present flash flood


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 412 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019

Surface front continues to sag southward towards Ohio River Valley
early in the work week. Farther south track of ejecting shortwaves
out of Southern Plains to limit shower chances to south/southeast
CWA. Intense Gulf of Alaska vortex finally undercuts northeast
stream block, leading to trough development over Plains by
midweek. Deep layer backing profiles to lift frontal zone northward
by midweek with renewed convection chances.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 643 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019

Dense fog had formed at FWA, but some showers had moved into the
terminal and had helped increase the visibility. A weakening MCV
was moving across northern Indiana early this morning and was
associated with the showers. This system will continue to move
east, although showers will linger for some time into tonight as a
front moves south. Still some uncertainty if IFR ceilings will
return tonight. A cool front will try to move south, but should
become stationary. Have IFR ceilings tonight north of the front
for now.


IN...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for INZ017-018-020-

OH...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for OHZ004-005-015-016-

LM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for LMZ043-046.



LONG TERM...Murphy

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