Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 191923

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
323 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

Issued at 322 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

Some showers will move across the area into this evening before
one last round of widespread rainfall arrives tonight and persists
into Saturday. Additional rainfall amounts through Saturday
afternoon will range from less than one quarter of an inch across
far northwest Indiana and extreme southwest Lower Michigan to
around an inch along and east of the Interstate 69 corridor.
Otherwise, cool and windy conditions are expected today with high
temperatures only reaching the mid and upper 40s. Below normal
temperatures will continue into Saturday before high temperatures
warm back into the 60s and lower 70s for Sunday under mostly sunny


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 322 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

Extensive cloud cover has kept temps in the mid 40s across the
area with a stiff NE wind now taking shape as stout upper level
low pressure dropping into Mississippi will eventually come back
northeast tonight into Saturday to bring one more round of rain to
the area. Deformation zone will quickly setup and pivot NW to
impact at least the SE half of the area, but will take till after
closer to the 9Z Sat window given how far south the upper low
currently is with precip lingering into 15 to 18Z. Models still
varying on exactly how far NW it comes with a tight cutoff
expected closer to Lake Michigan where not a drop of rain may
fall. Rainfall amounts of one half to 1 inch look on track SE half
and quickly tapering from there. Lows will drop into the upper
30s, but precip should stay all rain (although can`t entirely rule
out a bit of snow mixing in). Rain will move out Saturday
afternoon with skies clearing somewhat in far W/NW areas where
highs may climb into the 50s vs another raw day in the 40s where
the clouds and rain linger.

Flooding concerns have diminished given that the expected QPF
overnight didn`t fully pan out with mainly rises into action stage
on several rivers and continuation of standing water in fields.
HWO will be toned down somewhat.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 322 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

Models generally in agreement on closed upper low near the KY/WV
border at the start of the period, slowly filling as it works East
to the East coast by 12Z Mon. This will allow the end of rain for a
few days as 574 dm ridge axis shifts over the region at the same
time. Clearing skies Sunday will allow for warmer low level temps to
be mixed down, with highs in the 60s. Clouds will increase Monday in
advance of a the first of 2 systems, the first a weak northern
stream disturbance moving out of the Plains. Models agree to some
extent with minor differences in timing and strength, but all
warranting chc pops for some showers/isol storms. Next system
remains more problematic with models refusing to agree on handling
of southern stream trough and potential phasing with a northern
stream wave. Agree with previous forecaster that best course for the
time being will be to maintain a dry forecast with seasonable temps
in the 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 156 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

Strong/deep north-northeast flow to drive drier air into northwest
Indiana/KSBN through the period with transition to VFR anticipated
by evening. In contrast richer bulk moisture through northeast
Indiana with primarily low end MVFR for fueling/alternate
dominant conditions. Attempted to focus on stronger band of
rainfall/tempo IFR conditions towards daybreak into mid Saturday
morning into KFWA as upper low, currently over northern
Mississippi lifts north into Middle Ohio Valley. Ramp of low level
winds also continues to be significant enough in speed for LLWS
mention late night/early Saturday morning.


LM...Gale Warning until 9 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-046.



LONG TERM...Fisher

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