Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 221125
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
525 AM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Current satellite shows IFR CIGs over the city of Midland but just
east of MAF. These clouds have made little progress west over the
past hour but are still expected to arrive shortly and will last
until around mid morning. Afterward modest winds will prevail
until around 06Z tonight when they increase and become very gusty
lasting through the end of the TAF period.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 432 AM CST Fri Feb 22 2019/

DISCUSSION...

An upper level trough is approaching the region from the west.
Patchy fog is possible this morning across eastern portions of the
CWA as low level moisture is moving across the area. Temperatures
today are expected to be very similar to yesterday as a surface
trough develops across southeast New Mexico and the higher terrain
of West Texas.

The upper trough to the west begins to move over the region tonight
with the base of the trough passing over the CWA. This will result
in strong west winds moving across the area tonight and continuing
into Saturday. Have allowed the High Wind Watch to remain but don`t
have as much confidence in areas across the northern Permian Basin
reaching high wind criteria since the timing of the peak winds will
occur before peak heating. The Guadalupe Mountains will likely be
upgraded to a High Wind Warning but have less confidence about the
other areas. Blowing dust will be possible across the northern
sections of the CWA on Saturday as a result of the wind. A Pacific
front will move across the area in association with the west winds.
Temperatures are expected to drop to near or below freezing across
the higher terrain and northern and western sections of the CWA
tonight.  Precipitation chances will increase tonight across the
area as upper lift increases. Precipitation type is expected to
change over the snow in the Guadalupe Mountains first tonight then
across other areas west of the Pecos River and in areas of southeast
New Mexico. The precipitation is expected to be light and will
quickly move out of the area on Saturday and will be followed by
blowing dust depending on precipitation amounts. Temperatures on
Saturday behind the front will be slightly cooler and around normal
for this time of year.

The upper trough lifts northeastward Saturday night and most places
across the area will be at or below freezing overnight. Zonal flow
is expected over the region on Sunday with temperatures fairly
similar to the previous day. Temperatures will begin to warm back up
beginning on Monday with most places experiencing temperatures in
the 70s on Tuesday. A cold front may backdoor into the area on
Thursday resulting in temperatures cooling to near normal. Although
there is a very slight chance of precipitation in the extended
forecast, did not include mention of for now due to low confidence.

FIRE WEATHER...

South winds will keep the minimum afternoon humidities today above
20 percent east of the Pecos River with upper teens expected west of
the Pecos. Winds will be a little gusty this afternoon but RFTIs are
mostly zero so will not issue a fire danger statement this
afternoon. Winds shift from the west tomorrow, increase in speed
dropping humidities into the lower teens that could create critical
fire weather conditions in southeast New Mexico and elevated fire
weather conditions elsewhere. However ERC values are still a little
low so have opted to continue the fire weather watch at this time.
A cold front will bring lighter winds and reduce the fire threat
early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     64  42  64  29 /  10  40   0   0
Carlsbad                       70  36  60  26 /   0  40   0   0
Dryden                         71  44  68  35 /   0  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  73  39  62  33 /   0  20   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 58  26  48  31 /   0  50   0   0
Hobbs                          64  33  57  25 /   0  40   0   0
Marfa                          66  27  54  23 /   0  30   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           67  39  63  29 /   0  40   0   0
Odessa                         67  37  62  28 /   0  30   0   0
Wink                           70  37  62  28 /   0  30   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Watch from this evening through Saturday afternoon for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
     afternoon for Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Watch from this evening through Saturday afternoon for
     Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-
     Southern Lea County.

TX...High Wind Watch from this evening through Saturday afternoon for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor.

     High Wind Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon
     for Andrews-Borden-Dawson-Gaines-Howard-Martin-Mitchell-
     Scurry.

&&

$$

99/99/10


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