Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 230530
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1230 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with extensive mid clouds expected. Easterly surface wind will
veer around to the south during the afternoon as leeside low
develops.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 238 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:30 PM CDT Sunday...the only thing consistent
is the inconsistency of the models.

Currently...radar is indc a few weak echoes out to our west. Both
Juarez and El Paso have only received a trace of rain...basically
enough to get your car or truck dirty. There could be a few
showers in the Guadalupe Mtns from a weak southern stream
shortwave this aftn but they won`t amount to much...if anything.

The 12Z ECMWF has come in much drier than the previous run
whereas the GFS is fairly similar in the short-term to its
previous run. An upper low over Arkansas will move slowly ENE
with a ridge building in the west. An upper trough in the Northern
Rockies will drop SE thru the Plains. After warming temps Monday
and especially Tuesday a strong cold front will drop south thru
the area Tuesday night/Wednesday. It will be significantly cooler
on Wednesday...but the ECMWF is further east with the moisture and
cooler air...therefore it is drier and not as cool as the GFS.
Both models have very high gap winds thru GDP...but that doesn`t
seem likely being the end of April. Therefore...while have strong
winds went below MOS guidance. Nevertheless...a High Wind Watch
might be required for Tuesday night/Wednesday morning for
GDP...will see what later model runs show.

The 12Z ECMWF keeps the CWA dry thru the week and next weekend as
well with weak ridging over the Intermountain West. The GFS is
significantly wetter. Have lowered the pops in the extended quite
a bit in deference to the ECMWF. If the 00Z model suite follows
the ECMWF trend extended pops will need to be further lowered.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     82  60  90  50 /   0   0  10  40
Carlsbad                       85  58  92  52 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         85  62  94  61 /   0   0  10  20
Fort Stockton                  85  64  93  54 /   0   0  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 77  62  81  46 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          80  57  85  47 /   0   0   0  20
Marfa                          80  54  85  51 /  10   0   0  20
Midland Intl Airport           83  61  91  50 /   0   0   0  30
Odessa                         83  61  90  50 /   0   0   0  30
Wink                           85  62  93  53 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$



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