Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 181100
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
600 AM CDT Tue Sep 18 2018

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation concerns are below.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR ceilings will fill in over all terminals this morning, with
some locations dropping to IFR.  MVFR visibility in fog will affect
most sites too.  Conditions will improve by 18/18Z, with VFR
expected until late tonight when MVFR ceilings form again.
Thunderstorms should stay west of all sites this afternoon and
evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 348 AM CDT Tue Sep 18 2018/

Near to just above normal temperatures are expected today and
Wednesday, along with drier conditions for most. However, a big
change is on the way beginning Wednesday night as precipitation
chances ramp up across the west, with increasing rain chances
areawide through Friday. Potentially widespread heavy rainfall and
localized flash flooding are the primary concerns, especially
Thursday through Friday evening.

Today, weak ridging will build over the region, and along with a
return to southerly surface flow, temperatures are expected to
warm up closer to seasonal norms this afternoon. Highs will
range from the middle to upper 80s for most, with lower 90s
possible through portions of the Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys, and
upper 70s to around 80 degrees across higher terrain. Moisture
will be less over the area today as the disturbance continues to
drift westward into Chihuahua, with greatest moisture remaining
across southern zones. A few storms developed overnight south of
Terrell county, and while these are not expected to make it north
into the area early this morning, high-res guidance indicates the
potential for additional showers or storms to develop across the
Lower Trans Pecos and far eastern Permian Basin later this morning
into this afternoon. However, the best chance for precipitation
today will exist mainly along and south of I-10. Given warmer
temperatures, expect more thunder than the past few days, though
severe weather is not expected.

Wednesday, temperatures look to be a couple degrees warmer, with
precipitation chances confined mainly to the higher terrain.
However, a pattern change will be underway, as the weak upper
ridge is shunted eastward by a developing western CONUS trough.
Resulting flow aloft will shift to the south/southwest, allowing
for an influx of tropical moisture across New Mexico and West
Texas by late this week. Concurrently, a tropical disturbance off
the coast of Baja looks to become caught up in this flow, and
while models differ on the strength of the disturbance, it will
yield additional moisture, as well as lift as it moves over the
region Thursday night into Friday. Precipitable water values are
also progged to increase to 1.75"-2.00" by Thursday/Friday,
yielding the potential for heavy rainfall as well as localized
flash flooding. There still remains some uncertainty as to exactly
where the heaviest rain may fall, as well as differences in
timing and the strength of the aforementioned tropical
disturbance between guidance, thus have taken this into account
and have maintained high chance PoPs across the entire area
Thursday night and Friday. A weak front may also try to edge into
the region Friday night into early Saturday, and could act as an
additional focus for precipitation, though otherwise, impacts look
to be fairly minimal. Temperatures in the Thursday- Friday-
Saturday time frame are highly dependent on cloudcover and
precipitation, with below normal temperatures expected west on
Thursday, and areawide Friday and Saturday.

Saturday onward, gradually drier conditions are expected, with a
warming trend beginning Sunday, and near normal temperatures in
the middle to upper 80s to around 90 degrees by Tuesday. Next
Wednesday, some guidance is indicating the potential for our first
cold front of the fall season, though given model reliability
that far out, will not hang our hats on anything just yet. But,
it`s something that bears watching.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     87  70  88  71 /  20   0  10  10
Carlsbad                       88  66  89  69 /  10  10  40  40
Dryden                         88  72  89  74 /  30  10  30  30
Fort Stockton                  87  68  88  68 /  20  10  30  30
Guadalupe Pass                 82  63  82  61 /  20  20  50  60
Hobbs                          84  65  85  65 /  10  10  20  30
Marfa                          82  60  82  60 /  30  20  50  40
Midland Intl Airport           87  69  89  70 /  20  10  20  20
Odessa                         87  70  89  70 /  20  10  20  20
Wink                           89  70  90  71 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/84



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