Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 271847
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
147 PM EST Fri Jan 27 2023

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

Current-Tonight...Surface high pressure centered northward with
models hinting at clouds across the south spreading northward toward
central FL in a weak isentropic upglide pattern, but generally near
to south of Orlando. Further north we may see some intrusion from
thin high clouds late in the period. Overnight lows chilly across
the north with L40s for much of Lake and inland Volusia counties,
however, any delay with thin high clouds across the north and we
could realize some U30s in normally cooler rural locations. Expect M-
U40s near the Volusia coast and further south across the interior
into north Okeechobee County, with 50s extending further south
across much of Okeechobee County, up thru Brevard, interior Treasure
Coast, except L-M60s for the immediate St. Lucie/Martin coasts.

Sat...Another chilly start will give way to a gradual warming trend,
beginning in the afternoon. Despite an increase in cloud cover, a
mix of sunshine and easterly surface flow will help temperatures
reach the L-M70s areawide, except perhaps only U60s at the Volusia
coast and up toward Lake George. Dry conditions persist as
surface high pressure becomes situated across the southeast U.S.
and along the mid Atlc. NE winds 7-12 mph on average with some
higher gusts expected, especially at the coast.

Sunday...High pressure ridge axis draped over the Florida peninsula
begins to push westward into the Atlantic, as a disturbance over
northern Florida moves NE. Locally, a few showers will be possible,
mainly along and inland from the Treasure Coast and over the
Atlantic waters, as winds veer SE and available moisture increases.
Otherwise, PoPs remaining near but below 15% for the rest of east
central Florida. By Sunday night, some increasing chances for
showers and a few storms along the coast and north of Melbourne, as
the disturbance makes its closest approach to the area. Sunday will
be the warmest day of the weekend, with highs in the upper 70s to
lower 80s. Lows Sunday morning in the upper 50s to lower 60s
becoming lower to mid-60s Sunday night.

Monday-Friday (modified previous)...The work week looks to begin
unsettled, with a front approaching north-central Florida Monday
morning. Models differ on the strength of high pressure over the
northern Caribbean into midweek. A stronger high, such as the ECMWF
suggests, would prevent the front from dropping too far south into
central Florida and remain stalled over northern Florida. The GFS
has a weaker ridge and, therefore, brings the front closer to the
area. Nonetheless, the front looks to be weak by this time, with
models differing on just how much moisture will remain along the
boundary. Thus, have only a slight chance of showers for northern
areas Monday night into Monday morning, with dry conditions
thereafter. However, some mentionable PoPs may need to eventually be
introduced into the forecast for Tuesday and/or Wednesday, depending
on the evolution of the front, as any moisture could stick around.

The pressure ridge axis to our south over Cuba and the Florida
Straits is progged to expand northward mid week. This will keep rain
chances negligible and daytime highs above normal into the first
part of February. Highs in the 80s are anticipated Tuesday through
Thursday, with mild morning lows in the 60s. The only wild card
during this period will be isolated showers that form over the
Atlantic from any lingering moisture from the previous front. The
ridge axis to our south begins to slide eastward on Thursday, ahead
of yet another approaching cold front. Model guidance is in less
agreement beyond Thursday morning with the evolution of the overall
pattern, but rain chances could return to portions of the area late
week into the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 123 PM EST Fri Jan 27 2023

Afternoon-Tonight-Sat...High pressure will continue to extend its
reach across the southeast U.S. and mid Atlc. This will continue
to veer our northerly winds to NNE-NE by daybreak Sat, then ENE-E
by day`s end. Wind speeds generally 10-15 kts near shore and 15
kts offshore, but may occasionally approach 15-20 kts over the
Gulf Stream, especially south of the Cape. The northerly component
of wind opposing the warm, Gulf Stream will continue to make for
choppy conditions for small craft. Seas are forecast to subside
only slightly as the winds veer, 2-4 ft near shore and 4-5 ft Gulf
Stream. Presently plan to discontinue Cautionary Statements over
the Gulf Stream with the 4PM/21Z Coastal Waters Forecast issuance.

Sunday-Tuesday...E winds veering SE through the day on Sunday, as
high pressure moves eastward ahead of an approaching trough. Winds
around 15kts expected through Sunday night. Then, generally S/SW
through the remainder of the period, as the aforementioned trough
stalls near to just north of the local waters. Winds also relax,
becoming around 10kts. Unsettled weather will lead to some showers
and possibly a few thunderstorms over the waters, mainly Sunday and
Monday. Seas 2-4ft.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 123 PM EST Fri Jan 27 2023

This Afternoon...Dry north flow has produced some L-M30s for min
RHs this afternoon over the interior, while RH values have trended
higher near the coast. Northerly wind component with speeds below
15 mph, but occasional higher gusts at the coast.

Sat...Flow becomes onshore with RH values moderating from the coast
inland. NE-ENE winds 5-10 mph, perhaps a little higher at the
coast with higher gusts here as well. RH values are forecast to
remain above critical levels.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 123 PM EST Fri Jan 27 2023

VFR conditions continue, though CIGS persist across the Treasure
Coast and Okeechobee County terminals, which may slowly spread
northward toward KISM/KMCO tonight. North winds to around 10 kts
and perhaps a little higher at coastal terminals, decreasing to 5
kts after sunset interior, but remaining 5-10 kts at the coast.
Winds continue to veer to NE-ENE during the day on Sat with some
higher gusts again at coastal terminals. Expect increasing
cloudiness from the south to north on Sat.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  60  48  69  60 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  64  48  71  61 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  65  54  73  64 /   0   0  10   0
VRB  67  57  74  64 /   0  10  10   0
LEE  62  44  71  58 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  64  46  71  59 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  64  48  71  61 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  67  60  73  66 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sedlock
LONG TERM....Leahy
AVIATION...Sedlock
DECISION SUPPORT...Tollefsen


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