Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 201941
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
241 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

.DISCUSSION...

So far convection today has remained pretty isolated which is a bit
surprising given how unstable we are. Nonetheless, carrying isolated
to scattered PoP through the rest of the afternoon into the early
evening for much of the area. Storms are still fairly slow moving,
so if any heavy rain develops over an area, a localized flooding
potential does exist.

Into late tonight, models are hinting at a bloom of showers and
thunderstorms developing early tomorrow morning, mainly east of
I-65. There appears to be some type of boundary that will
eventually stall out over our area tomorrow, enabling additional
showers and thunderstorms to develop. This increased
shower/t`storm should help out our temps, keeping most of the area
in the mid to upper 80s for our highs tomorrow.

The main weather-maker for the forecast period continues to be the
surface front that will pass through the area on Monday, finally
breaking the extremely hot and muggy trend. Models begin to bring
prcp to the area as early as Monday morning with the best chance of
showers/t`storms coming Monday afternoon/evening timeframe. Model
PWAT values show 2+ inches and with many models showing much of our
area receiving 1-2 inches (or more for localized areas) on Monday
alone, some localized flooding is certainly possible. This will
probably need to be monitored through the day. As for strong
thunderstorms, we could see a few strong storms develop, but
widespread severe weather isn`t expected.

Once any remaining showers clear Tuesday morning we are home free
for what appears to be a pretty incredible weather pattern if you
ask me. Highs will be several degrees below average through the
middle of next week with comfortable dewpoint temps and little to no
PoP. Of course this pattern can only last so long, as high pressure
will begin to move back into the region next weekend allowing for
warmer temps and increased PoP to return. Until then, be sure to
take advantage of the incredible weather Tuesday through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A few vicinity storms are possible at BNA and MQY this afternoon.
CSV isn`t completely in the clear, and could see a vicinity storm
later this afternoon. Occasional broken 3kft to 5kft cigs will be
possible throughout the afternoon. CKV will likely stay dry and
VFR for the remainder of the day. Best chances of early morning
fog with MVFR to IFR conditions will be at CKV and CSV. Additional
storm development is possible early Sunday morning through the
afternoon with the best chance of direct impacts from storms at
MQY and BNA. Expect low cloud cover to develop again across
Middle Tennessee in the morning.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      75  88  74  86  66 /  30  40  60  80  70
Clarksville    74  89  74  83  63 /  20  40  70  80  60
Crossville     70  82  70  81  64 /  30  50  50  80  80
Columbia       73  87  72  86  66 /  30  40  60  80  70
Lawrenceburg   73  86  72  85  66 /  40  50  50  80  70
Waverly        74  89  73  84  65 /  20  30  70  80  60

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......MacDonald
AVIATION........11


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