Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA

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FXUS66 KOTX 221758
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1058 AM PDT Mon Apr 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be mild and dry with clouds on the increase during the
afternoon. A quick moving cold front will bring breezy conditions
and the chance for showers Tuesday. Dry and warm weather will
return Wednesday and Thursday, but cooler and showery conditions
are expected Friday and into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Wednesday Night: Weakly positively tilted shortwave
ridge lingering in place a bit Monday gets flattened out by trof
passage. The remaining zonal flow holds in place over Eastern
Washington and Northern Idaho through Wednesday night with
additional weak trof passages through it. Moisture remains limited
with each of these trof passages, and with the zonal flow pops remain
minimal to none over most lowland and valley locations within the
lee of the Cascades and the hither terrain of North Idaho today and
tomorrow along with intervals of breezy conditions accompanying each
trof passage especially Tuesday afternoon, otherwise moisture is
limited enough to maintain a dry forecast for Wednesday.  This
pattern supports forecast temperatures a few degrees on the warm
side of climo. /Pelatti

Thursday: Broad high pressure will remain over the western US
through Thursday. Expect pleasant weather with afternoon
temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s with light winds.

Friday: There is decent model agreement that a pattern change
will begin on Friday. A fast moving cold front is expected to
break down our high pressure ridge. Temperatures will likely begin
to trend cooler on Friday, but should remain above average with
highs mainly in the 60s. The progressive nature of the front and
strong mid-level westerlies will likely shadow much of central
Washington. At this time, it looks like showers will mainly be
confined to the Idaho Panhandle, the eastern third of Washington,
and the high terrain of the Cascades. Depending on the timing of
the front, Friday has the potential to be breezy. West or
southwest winds of 15 to 20 mph with gusts as high as 30 mph look
plausible according to the evening run of the GFS and Canadian.
The quicker and slightly weaker ECMWF suggests a little less wind.

Saturday and Sunday: A broad trough over the Pacific Northwest
into the Northern Rockies will likely produce unsettled weather
over the weekend. At this time, it looks like there will be
strong enough mid and upper level westerly wind that showers
chances will be minimal across central Washington with scattered
rain and mountain snow showers over the ID Panhandle, the
Cascades, and mountains of northeast Washington. Look for
high temperatures to drop into the mid 50s to low 60s by Sunday.
Pockets of frost will be possible over the weekend and early next
week. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Moisture off of the Pacific will result in increasing mid
to high level clouds with rain showers mainly near the Cascade crest
and Idaho Panhandle.  The GFS and other global models support just
light precipitation over the Idaho Panhandle and thus the GFS is going
with VFR conditions for all TAF sites.  The NAM and some higher
resolution models show CIGS lowering to MVFR at KPUW/KCOE due to
more moistening of the boundary layer with a bit more rain.  But
this doesn`t agree with the other model guidance so this TAF package
maintained VFR conditions for all TAF sites.  JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        66  49  67  41  65  40 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  66  48  65  41  64  40 /   0  20  20  10   0   0
Pullman        63  49  65  43  61  40 /   0  10  40  10   0   0
Lewiston       71  54  72  50  69  46 /   0  10  20   0   0   0
Colville       73  43  73  35  73  34 /   0  20  10   0   0   0
Sandpoint      65  47  64  40  63  39 /   0  30  40  10   0   0
Kellogg        64  48  61  43  61  40 /   0  30  50  20   0   0
Moses Lake     73  51  74  43  71  43 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      70  50  68  43  68  43 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           70  47  70  40  70  41 /  10  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.

&&

$$


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