Text Products for AFD Issued by PAH

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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FXUS63 KPAH 031923
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
223 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

A strong cold front is still on track to knock temperatures back
from summer to fall. In the meantime, temperatures this afternoon
are again pushing 90 in a few locations. Widespread diurnal
cumulus clouds will melt away as quickly as they formed, once we
approach sunset.

A broad 500 mb trough will move east from the Plains, spreading
some mid and high clouds across our region tonight and Wednesday.
There is a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms in the Ozark
foothills mid to late afternoon Wednesday. The clouds will be
slow to thicken east of the Mississippi, which will likely allow
temps to climb well into the 80s there.

Late Wednesday night, a cold front will move into central
Missouri from the northwest. The corridor of strongest low-level
moisture transport will shift east into the Ozark foothills and
portions of southern Illinois, well ahead of the front. This
should promote numerous showers in those areas. There will be
little in the way of buoyancy for thunder, but possibly just
enough for a few thunderstorms.

The bulk of the rainfall will occur on Thursday, when the axis of
highest precipitable water values will shift southeast into the
lower Ohio Valley. The 12z gfs indicates precipitable water values
peaking around 1.75 inches during Thursday across our area. The
500 mb trough axis will pass across the mid Mississippi Valley
late in the day. This trough will provide plenty of mid-level
forcing. Slow movement of the showers and isolated storms will
result in a decent potential for one-inch rainfall amounts in
southern IL and southeast MO.

On Thursday night, the departure of the 500 mb trough axis and the
plume of deep moisture will bring a gradual decrease in rainfall.
The surface cold front will lag the 500 mb trough slightly. By
late Thursday night, the front will reach the Pennyrile region of
west KY. Although frontal precip will diminish, it is still
possible western KY and sw Indiana will end up with around a half
inch or so.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

Friday through Saturday, a strong 500 mb shortwave will move
southeast across the Missouri Valley. This shortwave will interact
with the 500 mb trough to our east, resulting in a deep 500 mb
low over the eastern Great Lakes. There will likely be a period of
cloudiness and even some showers across our area Friday afternoon
and night. The main effect will be to drag down some very cool
air. Highs Saturday will struggle to reach 60, with a brisk
northwest breeze. Saturday night lows will likely drop below 40 in
some areas that are sheltered from the wind. The potential for
patchy frost cannot be ruled out, depending on whether winds
diminish sufficiently. There is also a small chance that
wraparound low clouds could moderate temps.

The closed upper-level low will very slowly depart the northeast
US early next week. A confluent northwest mid-level flow behind
the base of the departing trough should keep skies mainly clear
early next week. Temps will warm up as surface winds turn into
the southwest. Highs Tuesday are currently forecast to be in the
mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1142 AM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

VFR conditions will continue through Wed morning. Diurnal cumulus
clouds have been slower to form today than recent days. Expect
scattered cu this afternoon, with bases above 4k feet. Winds will be
south 5 to 9 kt.

After diurnal cu dissipate with loss of heating around 00z, mainly
clear skies are forecast tonight into Wed morning. Winds will be
light southeast tonight, becoming south 5 to 10 kt Wed morning. Some
patchy ground fog cannot be ruled out late tonight, but it should be
even less impactful than this morning.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...MY
National Weather Service Regional Headquarters
