727
FXUS63 KPAH 071024
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
524 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 20-50% chance of intermittent showers and
  thunderstorms today through Saturday, with the greatest risk
  of storms peaking this evening.

- An increase in heat and humidity over the weekend will likely
  result in 4 consecutive days of heat index values exceeding
  100 to around 105 degrees.

- After a brief period of dry conditions Sunday into Monday,
  unsettled weather returns for the middle of the week along
  with near to slightly below normal temperatures in the latter
  half.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 113 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

A broad upper level trough with embedded shortwaves will become a
bit more amplified though this evening, providing modest
forcing for a 20-50% chance of intermittent showers and
thunderstorms. The greatest risk peaks this evening, especially
across portions of southern Illinois and southeast Missouri
when storms capable of causing heavy downpours and lightning
will be possible. Despite weak shear, cannot rule out a stray
strong gusty storm given DCAPE over 1000 J/kg combined with
7.5-8.0 C/km 0-3km lapse rates and a 30-40K theta-e difference.
Low rain chances shift east of the Mississippi and linger
through most of Saturday before diminishing. Total rainfall
between a tenth of an inch to a half inch remains progged with
locally higher amounts.

As an upper level ridge builds more east over the weekend, the heat
and humidity will be on the increase. Daily high temperatures
ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s with dewpoints in the
low to mid 70s will potentially yield 4 consecutive days of heat
index values rising above 100 to around 105 degrees, and may
eventually require a Heat Advisory in the future. A few
locations may even reach 100 today, but the potential for
convection and cloud debris will likely keep this too limited to
warrant any headlines for the duration criteria. While a brief
lull in the unsettled weather will occur Sunday into Monday with
tranquil conditions, the ridge quickly breaks down towards the
middle of the week with daily chances of showers and
thunderstorms making a return beginning late Tuesday into
Wednesday. Temperatures eventually trend near to slightly below
normal in the latter half of the week as a cold front sweeps
through.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 524 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Scattered mid-level cu around 5-6 kft AGL will develop later
today with diurnal heating. A weak disturbance will bring a
PROB30 for isolated to scattered convection coverage this
afternoon into the evening. Confidence is slightly better in
southeast Missouri including KCGI in seeing a storm, but not
enough for TEMPO mention. High-level clouds thicken tonight and
should help to mitigate ground fog again for most of the region.

Winds today will be south around 7-10 kts, diminishing below 5
kts after sunset.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DW