Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 141950
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
250 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018

Our active weather pattern has begun. Latest surface analysis
shows a surface low over north central Kansas, with an associated
frontal boundary extending into northern Missouri then southeast
into the PAH forecast area. Shower activity has increased and
spread east over the last couple of hours, and a couple of
thunderstorms have finally developed in southern Illinois just
out ahead of the initial showers.

Latest ECMWF/GFS show the surface low making slow eastward
progress, moving it near KUIN by 00z Thursday, and into southern
Lower Michigan by 00z Friday. The slow movement of the low keeps
the initial frontal boundary in our area into tonight, keeping
chances of showers and some thunderstorms across our area. Then
with the low just north of our region into tomorrow night, chances
will increase from west to east tomorrow into tomorrow night. Went
with high chance to likely pops for this time period.

The trailing cold front will then be just west of our region on
Thursday, and it will make just a little eastward progress into
Thursday night. Convection will be mainly ahead of the front, so
we will see widespread good chances of showers and storms on
Thursday, but by Thursday night our northwest counties will see a
break in the activity if the models have a good handle on the
frontal position.

Temperatures will be within a couple degrees of seasonal through
the period. With dew points in the lower 70s, afternoon heat
indices mainly in our southern counties will be in the middle to
upper 90s. Cloud cover will make it feel a bit more comfortable.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018

To start off the long term period, we will be dealing with an upper
trough over the eastern half of the CONUS, and an upper ridge in the
west. The issue for Friday`s forecast right now, is the timing of a
decent looking shortwave heading into the area. Latest guidance
shows this wave be to our northwest 12Z Friday, which will push
through the area Friday into Friday night, resulting in scattered
showers and storms. Although slight fluctuations in timing will be
likely, it appears that the better chances will be Friday night, so
will indicate highest POPs in this time frame.

Again, timing for the departure of the rain on Saturday will need
future modifications but we should see the more widespread type
coverage of precipitation begin to taper off from west to east as
the upper trough shifts east. The slower GFS/ECMWF would suggest
that eastern sections of the CWA will have the better coverage of
any lingering precipitation on Saturday morning. However, a weak
boundary will accompany the upper level shortwave and it is forecast
to hang up a bit over the area on Saturday. Lingering moisture,
instability and this boundary in place are likely the reason for
models indicating some type of isolated to scattered convection
Saturday afternoon across the entire area. Will maintain inherited
chance type POPs and make very little adjustments to that. Aside
from lingering convective chances in the evening, we should see
things settle down overnight.

On Sunday, we will transition from northwesterly flow aloft to some
weak ridging. Any chances for showers or storms should be limited on
Sunday, but not zero, as enough moisture and instability may allow
for some activity. Another organized system will take aim on our
area early next week, but there are some pretty substantial timing
differences that hold us back from getting too high with POPs just
yet.

PWs will increase for Friday so heavy rainfall with become a threat
with the convection that develops. PWs then drop off late in the
weekend, only to surge again with our next system early next week.
Weak wind fields should ward off any organized severe weather during
the period however. As far as temperatures, relatively normal
readings are expected with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018

On and off shra/isolated tsra are possible mainly at KPAH/KCGI
into early evening, with chances lowering overnight, so only
included VCSH until around 00z. KEVV/KOWB could see an isolated
shra late afternoon/early evening, but chances too low to include
in TAF. All TAF sites will have increasing chances of
shra/isolated tsra after 12z, and included VCSH. Kept conditions
VFR at all sites, but brief MVFR skies/vsbys possible in/near
showers. Winds will be south to southwest around 6 kts or less.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...RST


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