Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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939
FXUS63 KPAH 110422
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1122 PM CDT Sat Apr 10 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sat Apr 10 2021

Strong gusty winds have developed under a dry slot associated with
the low pressure system over the mid Mississippi Valley. Abundant
sunshine has warmed temps enough to promote mixing to around 7000
feet, based on the rap model sounding for kpah. Gusts to around 30
kt will continue through sunset. These winds have been handled
with a special weather statement. Winds will be slow to subside
this evening, since the low pressure center is deepening and low
level lapse rates are forecast to remain steep well into the
night.

The deepening surface low over northern Illinois tonight will
wrap moisture east/southeast across parts of our region. Radar
mosaics indicated the leading edge of light rain was near the I-44
corridor this afternoon. The consensus of short range guidance
pops keeps most of the rain north of a kcgi to Madisonville line
tonight. With increasing clouds and brisk winds, lows tonight will
be around 50 despite cold advection aloft.

Sunday may start out rather cloudy, with some light rain showers
continuing in sw Indiana and the I-64 corridor of Illinois. The
clouds and rain will pull away to the northeast as the storm
system lifts northeast. Highs will range from the mid 60s in parts
of sw Indiana to the lower 70s in southeast Missouri, where sun
will be prevalent.

Sunday night and Monday, a weak cold front will pass southeast
across our region with very little moisture to work with. A period
of cloudiness will accompany the front, along with a wind shift to
northwest. Highs Monday will be in the 65 to 75 degree range from
north to south.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sat Apr 10 2021

During the midweek period, a merged low pressure system in the Great
Lakes area is progged to eject eastward toward the Atlantic seaboard
in response to ridging building over Manitoba/western Ontario. In
addition, the medium range models suggested ridging aloft will
increase across the central Plains through the daylight hours Wed in
response to a large low pressure system moving eastward out of the
Rockies. This will keep the PAH forecast area under fairly fast west-
northwesterly flow aloft into late in the week, with high pressure
maintained at the surface.

By early Fri, measurable pcpn may flirt with westernmost parts of
the region as northern stream mid level shortwave energy merges with
part of the elongating trof out west, but measurable pcpn (mostly
just showers) appears most probable in the extended period to be on
Sat (Day 7) as deeper moist southerly flow would have increased
across the MS River valley by then.

Surface winds are forecast to have a solid northerly component
through the extended forecast period. As a result, temps near
seasonable levels, with no wild swings to above or below average,
can be expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1122 PM CDT Sat Apr 10 2021

For the 06z Sunday WFO PAH TAF issuance, the movement of the
surface and upper low will have a significant impact on the KMVN,
KEVV, and to a lesser degree the KOWB TAF sites. A rapid downturn
to MVFR ceilings will occur at KMVN at the beginning of the
forecast period, with KEVV following suite by 09z Sunday. Recovery
to VFR ceilings will not occur until late in the forecast period
for these aforementioned TAF Sites.

KCGI and KPAH should remain in VFR category through the period as
the main core of the lower ceilings will stay north of these TAF
locations.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...Smith



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