Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 200525
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1125 PM CST Mon Nov 19 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1125 PM CST Mon Nov 19 2018

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 230 PM CST Mon Nov 19 2018

Extensive low cloud cover continues across the region this
afternoon, with KVWX in long pulse showing some drizzle across the
tristatewx area. A weak surface ridge will move across the area
this evening ahead of another boundary seen up across northern MO
into east KS. This weak ridge will back winds to the southwest and
may allow some clearing to work into parts of the area this
evening, before clouds spread back in late tonight into Tuesday
morning. How far east will be a tricky call. Basically we used a
950mb NAM/RAP rh depiction coupled with some other hi res cloud
guidance. Evening shift can adjust as needed. Used a MET/MAV MOS
blend for temps tonight.

Strong high pressure will build across the area Tuesday and
persist through Wednesday night. This coupled with inactive NW
flow aloft and dry airmass will result in dry weather. The high
will reinforce the chilly air across the area for Tuesday. Then
temps moderate Wednesday as our flow take on a more westerly
component.

.LONG TERM...(Thanksgiving Day through Monday)
Issued at 230 PM CST Mon Nov 19 2018

At the start of the period, a fairly amplified upper ridge axis will
exist over the central part of the country. This upper level ridge
will shift east on Thursday and Thursday night. Weak high pressure
will be situated our area and help to provide dry conditions for the
Thanksgiving holiday. An 850 mb ridge will allow temperatures to
rise into the lower to mid 50s for highs on Thursday.

On Thursday night, as the upper ridge begins to shift east of the
area, the flow becomes southwesterly. At the surface, as the weak
high moves east, the gradient will tighten as our next system moves
into the Plains states. By 12Z Friday, an upper trough will be
situated in the Central Plains states. Throughout the morning on
Friday, this trough will trek eastward. While a stray shower may
impact the far western reaches of the area, the bulk of the
precipitation will arrive during the afternoon and evening hours on
Friday. Highs will be a few degrees cooler on Friday as the trough
moves into the area. Rainfall totals do not look too awful high,
ranging from a quarter to a half inch on average.

The precipitation should move east of the area during the overnight
hours on Friday with only lingering showers in the far
northeast/east by first thing Saturday morning. The upper flow will
become southwesterly on Saturday as another upper level trough digs
into the northern Plains into the northern Rockies. Some decent warm
air advection will take place which will aid in boosting
temperatures into the mid to upper 50s Saturday afternoon with quiet
weather.

While the latest models show differences this far out, it appears
that aforementioned system will impact the area by around Sunday.
However, right now, timing does not look too bad with more rain
arriving starting either Sunday morning or afternoon and exiting
sometime Sunday night. Depending on how much precipitation is left
on Sunday evening, we could have a rain/snow mix as it ends. Some
finer tuning to be done with this system but will keep a good chance
going for now. Highs on Sunday will drop down into the lower to
possibly mid 50s as the upper trough passes overhead.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1125 PM CST Mon Nov 19 2018

The back-edge of a mass of MVFR ceilings will continue to push
southeast and should clear all of the TAF sites in the next 2
hours. Behind it there is an area of lower VFR ceilings ahead of
the advancing cold front. Winds may go slack ahead of the front
overnight, so some isolated fog will be possible across the region
where skies are able to clear for an hour or more. Northwest winds
will pick up with the frontal passage 10Z-12Z, but stay under
10kts. Another area of MVFR ceilings will push in as well. These
clouds will clear from west to east mid-late morning. Some
guidance indicates IFR ceilings will be possible. VFR conditions
are expected from 18Z on with diminishing northwest winds.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...CN
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...DRS


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