Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 221950
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
250 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019

Models show an area of low pressure sliding east into the Great
Lakes region tonight. The associated cold front will extend from
lower Michigan to just northwest of the PAH forecast area into
north Texas by 12z Tuesday. As the surface low moves slowly east,
the frontal boundary will lay out across our region and be the
focus of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms beginning on
Tuesday. Models vary a little as to when chances will begin, but
generally it looks like we should see scattered showers in our
northwest two thirds of counties by Tuesday afternoon, with
chances gradually becoming more widespread Tuesday night and
continuing into Wednesday night. Small chances of thunderstorms
will be right along and south of the front, so this will give us
thunder chances mainly in our southern two thirds of counties
Tuesday afternoon, and our far southern counties Wednesday
afternoon, with thunder chances fizzling by sunset both days.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019

An area of low pressure in east Texas along the front Wednesday
night will move east into Thursday night with the help of a well
defined mid/upper level trof. This will result in a surge of
moisture across our region along with more significant movement of
the frontal boundary on Thursday. This will will be our best
chance of showers/storms and more substantial rainfall amounts.
Rainfall amounts Thursday will be a quarter to around half of an
inch, with totals for Tuesday through Thursday night from three
tenths along Interstate 64 to close to an inch in southeast
Missouri.

For Friday into Saturday, models show weak high pressure sliding
across the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys. This will
give our region dry conditions and slightly above seasonal
temperatures.

By Saturday night, models show a surface low moving north of our
area. GFS is farther north, taking the low into the central Great
Lakes region, while the ECMWF takes it across extreme southern
portions of the Great Lakes. The ECMWF produces more QPF for the
PAH forecast area, while the GFS is just a glancing blow. By
Sunday, ECMWF has the associated front south of our area, while
the GFS lays the front across our counties. The models lift the
front back north by Monday due to another approaching surface low,
leading to some precipitation potential especially for our
northern counties. Due to the models differences and low
confidence, will just continue with on and off low chances of
showers and a few storms for now for Saturday night into Sunday,
and wait and see where the models go with this system.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019

Scattered mid and high clouds are expected into tonight. Mid
clouds will increase from northwest late tonight ahead of an
approaching cold front. MVFR cigs may make it to KEVV by late in
the TAF period. No vsby restrictions expected. South to southwest
winds at 10 to 15 kts with gusts around 20 kts will decrease to 5
to 10 kts after 01z, then become southwest to west at 5 to 10 kts
after 13z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...RST


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