Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 310819
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
319 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2020

Biggest news in the short term lies with unseasonably chilly
temperatures Sunday and Monday, and the high potential for a
widespread freeze Sunday night.

High pressure which should bring a frosty start to some parts of
the forecast area this morning, will shift off to the east during
the course of the day, allowing surface winds to become more
southerly. This, along with ample sunshine, will allow afternoon
temperatures to recover into the lower 60s at many locations.

However, a moisture-starved cold front will drop southeast
through the region later tonight. Though no more than some clouds
are expected to accompany the front, it will serve to usher in
some chilly air for Sunday and Monday, with temperatures only
making it into the lower half of the 50s. A few locations up
along the I-64 corridor may not even make it out of the 40s on
Sunday, despite a good deal of sunshine. In addition to the
unseasonably cool air Sunday, northwest winds will likely gust
from 25 to 30 mph at times, adding a bigger chill to the air.

The breezes will subside Sunday night, as a ridge of high pressure
builds east from the Plains. The decreased winds along with clear
skies will likely set the stage for a widespread freeze Sunday
night into early Monday. Freeze Watch headlines have already been
posted, and these will likely be upgraded to Freeze Warnings
later today or tonight.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2020

A stretch of mostly sunny and mild weather is expected most of next
week. A deep 500 mb trough will depart the East Coast on Tuesday,
resulting in strong height rises across the central states. A broad
upper-level ridge will then become established over most of the
conus for the rest of the work week. This ridge will be associated
with dry and mild weather.

At the surface, a large ridge of high pressure will become
stationary from the southern Appalachians eastward into the
Atlantic. The high will produce a south to southwest flow of mild
air, resulting in a gradual moderation in temps. Highs will rise
from the lower 60s Tuesday to near 70 by Friday. Overnight lows will
be in the 40s.

The only potential fly in the ointment is a weak 500 mb trough on
the southern fringe of the westerlies. This trough will pass east
across the Plains on Wednesday night, based on gfs and ecmwf
ensemble means. Aside from a period of cloudiness, this feature
should have little impact on our sensible weather.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2020

VFR conditions are expected to continue. Light winds will become
5-10 kts southerly tomorrow, veering towards southwesterly during
the evening ahead of a cold frontal passage. High clouds are
expected to increase through the day, with higher coverage in
Western Kentucky. Additional clouds will accompany the cold front
which will approach from the northwest just after the forecast
period.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Freeze Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for
     ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...Freeze Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for
     MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.

IN...Freeze Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for
     INZ081-082-085>088.

     Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...Freeze Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for
     KYZ001>022.

     Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...ATL


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