Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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FXUS65 KPSR 271746

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1046 AM MST Fri Jan 27 2023

.UPDATE...Updated Aviation discussion.


Below normal temperatures are expected through at least the middle
of next week. Dry, tranquil weather conditions are expected heading
into this weekend. Another more impactful weather system will likely
bring increased precipitation chances as well as colder temperatures
and some breezy conditions for early next week. Temperatures are
then expected to warm up for the latter part of next week.


Early morning objective analysis and water vapor imagery showed the
shortwave trough that moved through the region yesterday continues
to push toward the south into northern Mexico. Gusty winds have
since subsided across the region with clear skies persisting. A dry
air mass remains in place as northerly flow aloft continues over the
Southwest. At the surface, dew points across the area at this hour
are generally in the teens. The dry air mass with clear skies and
light winds will promote optimal radiational cooling this morning
and allow for temperatures to dip into the 30s for many lower desert
communities. Colder rural, outlying areas across the lower
elevations will likely see low temperatures this morning fall to
around the freezing mark. Some Phoenix suburbs, such as Queen Creek,
may also see temperatures this morning flirt with the freezing mark.

An amplified upper level ridge over the eastern Pacific will
continue to promote a dry northerly flow over the region heading
into the weekend with tranquil weather prevailing. Temperatures will
warm several degrees each day through the weekend with the NBM
showing highs in the mid 60s by Sunday.

Heading through the weekend and into the start of next week, the
amplified ridge over the eastern Pacific will further extend
northward into Alaska and slightly retrograde westward. As this
occurs, it`ll allow for another trough to dive down through the
western CONUS into the first part of next week. Ensemble cluster
analysis reveals improving agreement, with some continued
disparities amongst the members in regards to the position and
amplitude of this trough, but overall confidence continues to
increase that this trough will bring some sensible weather impacts
to our area. The favored solution among the global ensembles shows
this trough diving south toward southern California early next week,
which would promote some moisture advection into our area. GEFS and
EPS ensemble mean currently show PWAT values climbing to around
0.50" across the region. The bump in moisture along with the
dynamics with this system is expected to promote precipitation
chances across the area. The latest NBM shows PoPs increasing
upwards of 50-60% in the Monday-Tuesday timeframe across south-
central Arizona. Significant QPF is not expected to occur with this
system. Some snow is expected across the southern Gila County high
terrain but accumulations look to remain minor.

Aside from the rain chances, breezy conditions are expected to once
again increase ahead of the trough starting Sunday. The latest ECMWF
EFI shows some potential for anomalous winds across the area,
particularly across parts of southeast California and southern
Arizona. This trough will also lead to well below normal
temperatures for the beginning of next week. NBM deterministic shows
high temperatures Monday and Tuesday only topping out in the mid to
upper 50s across much of the lower deserts.

After the departure of the trough, ensemble clusters show upper
level ridging is favored to build into the western CONUS for the
latter part of next week. This would allow for temperatures to warm
up and finally return to near normal readings for this time of year.


.AVIATION...Updated at 1742Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, KDVT; and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No significant weather will impact the region through Saturday
morning under clear skies. Around the Phoenix metro, E/NE winds will
be preferred into mid afternoon with moderate confidence of the
traditional westerly switch by late afternoon. NW directions will be
most likely in SE California through the afternoon. In all areas,
speeds will remain light with prolonged periods of light and variable
winds common.


Lighter winds are expected over the next couple of days as dry,
tranquil weather conditions prevail. A weather system early next
week is expected to bring precipitation chances along with another
round of breezy conditions to the region. Gusty winds are expected
to increase Sunday while precipitation chances begin increasing
Monday and linger into Tuesday. Min RHs will be in the 15-25% range
and Max RHs will be in the 40-60% range through Saturday before
trending upward heading into early next week. Temperatures will
continue to remain below seasonal normals through at least early
next week before a warming trend is expected to occur during the
latter part of next week.




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