Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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168
FXUS65 KREV 060816
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1216 AM PST Wed Nov 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

* Coldest temperatures of the season so far are expected today
  into Thursday morning behind this front.

* High pressure raises concerns for air stagnation from Thursday
  into the weekend, with valley inversions and hazy skies likely.

* Confidence is increasing for a couple of storms to impact the
  region this weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A dry backdoor cold front passage early this morning is evident from
recent mountain observations, with our easterly wind prone Sierra
locations gusting well over 100 mph. Expect winds to continue
ramping up through mid-morning, before tapering off through the
remainder of the day as the associated trough continues digging
southeast out of our region. Winds are also increasing across the
Tahoe Basin early this morning, with gusts to 30-35 mph expected to
result in choppy lake conditions on Tahoe through late morning.

Bundle up as you head out the door this morning, as lows will be in
the teens to mid-20s across the region. Not to mention the increased
northeasterly winds today, which will make it feel that much colder.
Wind chills for Sierra communities will be near zero to single
digits, and in the teens across western Nevada this morning. Highs
will only top out in the 40s this afternoon. Another cold morning is
on tap for Thursday, though the lack of wind will make it feel a bit
less insufferable.

High pressure builds in briefly Thursday into Friday, with
temperatures returning back to normal by Friday. Lighter winds under
this pattern leading to limited mixing will allow for strengthening
valley inversions each morning, resulting in hazy skies for urban
areas.

Biggest change from previous forecast is increasing connivance
for a couple of systems to impact the region Saturday into early
next week. The first looks relatively weak, with a more northerly
track keeping the best chances for precipitation near the Oregon
border. More likely, we`ll just see a slight enhancement in
southwesterly winds on Saturday afternoon from this system. A
second, stronger and colder system drops into the Pacific
Northwest late Sunday into Monday. Still some uncertainty with
this system, but models are coming into better agreement in recent
runs. The EC, which was favoring the drier scenario, continues to
slide towards a wetter scenario. Though exact impacts still
remain uncertain, we`re looking at a better shot for notable
mountain snow and valley rain around the Sunday-Tuesday time
period and increasing winds on Sunday ahead of this system.
Whitlam

&&

.AVIATION...

* FL100 winds will continue to increase overnight into early
  Wednesday morning, peaking around 12z at 50-60 kts and gradually
  trending down through the remainder of the day.

* Decreasing high clouds expected overnight, though some increased
  low clouds (<5 kft) to develop across the Sierra and areas near
  the Oregon border through the morning. Expect Sierra terminals to
  see wind gusts to 20 kts between this time, with LLWS and mountain
  wave turbulence a good bet through around 18z Wed. All other
  terminals will see easterly wind gusts generally 20 kts or less.

* Winds taper through this afternoon with clearing skies promoting
  widespread VFR conditions into Thursday.

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Lake Wind Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning NVZ002.

CA...Lake Wind Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning CAZ072.

&&

$$