Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
168 FXUS65 KREV 060816 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1216 AM PST Wed Nov 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... * Coldest temperatures of the season so far are expected today into Thursday morning behind this front. * High pressure raises concerns for air stagnation from Thursday into the weekend, with valley inversions and hazy skies likely. * Confidence is increasing for a couple of storms to impact the region this weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... A dry backdoor cold front passage early this morning is evident from recent mountain observations, with our easterly wind prone Sierra locations gusting well over 100 mph. Expect winds to continue ramping up through mid-morning, before tapering off through the remainder of the day as the associated trough continues digging southeast out of our region. Winds are also increasing across the Tahoe Basin early this morning, with gusts to 30-35 mph expected to result in choppy lake conditions on Tahoe through late morning. Bundle up as you head out the door this morning, as lows will be in the teens to mid-20s across the region. Not to mention the increased northeasterly winds today, which will make it feel that much colder. Wind chills for Sierra communities will be near zero to single digits, and in the teens across western Nevada this morning. Highs will only top out in the 40s this afternoon. Another cold morning is on tap for Thursday, though the lack of wind will make it feel a bit less insufferable. High pressure builds in briefly Thursday into Friday, with temperatures returning back to normal by Friday. Lighter winds under this pattern leading to limited mixing will allow for strengthening valley inversions each morning, resulting in hazy skies for urban areas. Biggest change from previous forecast is increasing connivance for a couple of systems to impact the region Saturday into early next week. The first looks relatively weak, with a more northerly track keeping the best chances for precipitation near the Oregon border. More likely, we`ll just see a slight enhancement in southwesterly winds on Saturday afternoon from this system. A second, stronger and colder system drops into the Pacific Northwest late Sunday into Monday. Still some uncertainty with this system, but models are coming into better agreement in recent runs. The EC, which was favoring the drier scenario, continues to slide towards a wetter scenario. Though exact impacts still remain uncertain, we`re looking at a better shot for notable mountain snow and valley rain around the Sunday-Tuesday time period and increasing winds on Sunday ahead of this system. Whitlam && .AVIATION... * FL100 winds will continue to increase overnight into early Wednesday morning, peaking around 12z at 50-60 kts and gradually trending down through the remainder of the day. * Decreasing high clouds expected overnight, though some increased low clouds (<5 kft) to develop across the Sierra and areas near the Oregon border through the morning. Expect Sierra terminals to see wind gusts to 20 kts between this time, with LLWS and mountain wave turbulence a good bet through around 18z Wed. All other terminals will see easterly wind gusts generally 20 kts or less. * Winds taper through this afternoon with clearing skies promoting widespread VFR conditions into Thursday. && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Lake Wind Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning NVZ002. CA...Lake Wind Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning CAZ072. && $$