Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 182053
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
153 PM PDT Thu Apr 18 2019

.SYNOPSIS...

Temperatures will remain above normal through Friday as high pressure
moves across the region. A low pressure system will then bring cooler
conditions Saturday with a chance for showers and a few thunderstorms.
Drier and warmer conditions expected for early next week. The warmer
temperatures will lead to increases in cold and swift water in
area rivers and streams.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Model simulations today are showing a slight slowing of the next
shortwave trough for Friday into Saturday. The only real changes
made to the forecast were to slightly slow this trough progression
down and decrease winds slightly in response for Friday.

Morning inversions are likely again Friday as mid slopes stay
above freezing overnight. the cooler valleys of western Nevada
are likely to dip into the 30s overnight with some locations
again dropping to just above freezing. Mixing increases Friday
ahead of the next trough so highs are likely to bounce to near 80
in the western Nevada and northeast California valleys while highs
reach the upper 60s to lower 70s in the Sierra valleys.

As stated above...the model simulations have slowed the trough for
Friday just a bit. That really only slows the onset of showers
and thunderstorms for northeast California and far northwest
Nevada a couple of hours late Friday afternoon.

The better chances for precipitation develops Saturday as a closed
low drops over the area. The development of a deformation axis is
also likely and could bring decent rain amounts to the far
northern part of the forecast area...greater than 0.25 inches.
South of Interstate 80 far less precipitation is expected.

High temperatures will cool Saturday as the upper low moves over
the region...but there will still be a decent amount of mid level
instability so the mention of thunderstorms was kept in the
forecast. This instability slides east by the evening. By the
overnight hours most of the instability will shift into central
Nevada away from our forecast area.

The cooling of highs into the 50s and 60s will slow the snow melt
by Saturday. The warmer temperatures of the two previous days will
accelerate the melt...but not so much that flooding starts to
occur.

Ridging starts to build again Sunday with a rebound in temperatures.
Highs are likely to climb back into the upper 60s and lower 70s
for the lower valleys.

.LONG TERM...Monday through next week...

High pressure ridge ramps up across the west for next week. Clear
skies will allow for plenty of sunshine, warmer temperatures and dry
conditions. Brisk north winds may keep temperatures a bit cooler for
Monday, but overall a warming trend will begin. Daytime high
temperatures will warm each day with lower valleys reaching into the
upper 70s to possibly low 80s and upper 60s for the Sierra
locations.

High pressure across the region will produce subsidence (sinking
air) across the Sierra and western Nevada, which will allow those
overnight surface inversions to strengthen each day through the
week. High pressure will weaken and push east for late next week as
another trough slides into the Pacific Northwest. Recent simulations
are showing the potential for this trough to develop into a cutoff
low off the west coast, which could result in increased potential
for showers and thunderstorms across the region for the weekend.
-Edan

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions with light winds are likely through most of Friday.
A trough of low pressure starts to drop into the area Friday
afternoon. This should bring an increase in winds aloft and at
the surface along with showers and possibly a few thunderstorms.
The greatest coverage of showers will be Saturday...and this will
also be the day with the best chance for lower ceilings and
visibilities...but not below MVFR.

VFR conditions return by late Sunday and continue through much of
next week.

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno


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