Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FXUS61 KRNK 302340
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
640 PM EST Mon Jan 30 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach the region tonight and cross the area on
Tuesday. This same front will become stalled, oriented nearly west
to east south of the region through mid-week. This feature will be
the focus for several rounds of precipitation, the northern extent of
which will cross our area, keeping us on the wet side until Friday
and Saturday when drier and cooler weather arrives.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 640 PM EST Monday...

   Winter Weather Advisory for western Greenbrier County WV in
effect from 4 AM to 1 PM Tuesday...

Some low to mid clouds are observed across the area, mostly
along and west of the Blue Ridge. Higher clouds are moving
towards the central Appalachians from the west and southwest
ahead of the approaching cold front. Cloud cover will continue
to increase through the night. Precipitation has not quite
reached the area, but some light echoes can be seen on radar to
the northwest of western Greenbrier County WV. No significant
changes made for this evening`s update, forecast remains on
track.

Previous discussion below...

As of 115 PM EST Monday...

A cold front will approach the region tonight with milder than
normal air for overnight temperatures immediately in advance of it.
Its associated precipitation is not expected to arrive until late
tonight across portions of southeast West Virginia, where initially
it is expected to fall in the form of light rain. With the cooling
effect of the rain, and also advection of colder air into the region
behind the front, we are expecting a gradually erosion of a warm
nose aloft, and strengthening of the cold nose at the surface. We are
expecting the precipitation at the higher elevations of western
Greenbrier County to transition from rain, to freezing rain, to
sleet, with mixes of all of the above equally possible. Pure snow,
or a mix of any of the above with snow, is looking less probable as
some degree warm nose is expected to remain until Tuesday afternoon.
However, by that time the bulk, if not all, of the precipitation is
expected to be east of the advisory area. Not a lot of wintry
weather is expected, at most a few hundreths of an inch of freezing
rain and up to one-tenth of an inch of sleet. However, the bulk of
this light wintry weather starting around daybreak and continuing
through the morning hours, impacting the morning commute.

For the remainder of the forecast area, light rain will overspread
the region Tuesday morning. Rain will taper off across the mountains
from west to east during the afternoon, but continue as patchy rain
in the afternoon across the Foothills and Piedmont

Temperatures tonight will average 15 to 20 degrees above normal with
highs on Tuesday near to slightly above normal.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM EST Monday...

     Unsettled Weather Through Mid-Week...

Surface front will bisect the forecast area for mid-week. Front
is of Arctic origin so tendency will be for cold air to under
cut warmer air aloft...leaving the forecast area in a situation
where surface temperature will determine P-Type. Several waves
of low pressure are forecast to ripple east along the
front...passage a of a weak wave Wednesday morning providing
upwards of a tenth of an inch QPF...and a bit stronger wave for
Thursday with the potential for a quarter inch QPF. Both events
will run into p-type issues, the northern part of the CWA
(along/north of 460) having a higher probability for a wintry
mix, vs. the southern part of the CWA which will favor more of a
cold rain. Of greatest certainty is the cloud cover... not
expecting any sun through Thursday.

The on-and-off precipitation and cloudiness through most of the
period will keep temperatures generally near to slightly below
normal for late January into early February.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 245 PM EST Monday...

     Surge of Cold Air For End of Week...
     Wintry Mix Sunday?...

Arctic front will move south of the region Friday introducing
a cold dry airmass...temperatures taking a noticeable tumble
for the weekend. Brisk northwest winds will also introduce
colder wind chills for Friday night into Saturday. The weather
looks dry for both Friday and Saturday...High Pressure settling
over the eastern CONUS. Return flow on the back side of the High
in combination with a disturbance moving across the Great Lakes
and another along the southeast Atlantic Coast may bring a
light wintry mix to the area Sunday. The forecast models are not
showing any phasing of the two separate areas of energy, so
only low chance threat for precip attm.


.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 630 PM EST Monday...

VFR conditions are present across most of the area. Mid to high
clouds are moving eastward over the central Appalachians ahead
of the approaching cold front. Low clouds and some fog are
observed in far southwest VA and into the mountains of NC and
TN.

Through the night and into the early morning hours of Tuesday,
cloud cover will increase from the west and south, and ceilings
will lower to MVFR and IFR as precipitation begins, and then
continues through most of the day. Precipitation will be mainly
rain for most of the region, but a wintry mix is possible for
the mountains of southeast West Virginia Tuesday morning.
However, have only included rain in the TAFs for KLWB and KBLF
since temperatures cold enough to support widespread coverage of
winter precipitation may not reach as far east and south as
those sites. Patchy fog is possible within areas of rain. The
rain doesn`t look to move east and out of the area until after
the end of the current TAF period.

Winds will be mostly westerly around 5 to 10 knots, but
turn northeasterly following the frontal passage late Tuesday
afternoon.

Forecast confidence is average.


Extended Aviation Outlook...

The region will remain within a pattern conducive to multiple
rounds of precipitation traversing the area through Thursday.
Each with the potential for providing widespread coverage of
sub-VFR conditions.

Mainly VFR, but gusty, conditions are expected Friday into
Saturday.


&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EST Tuesday for
     WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/AS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...DS/AS


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