Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 180351
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
951 PM CST Sun Feb 17 2019

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight/

The back edge of the isolated areas of -RA have exited the SE
sections of Ncntrl LA this evening, with cold advection beginning
to filter drier air SE into E TX/SW AR /NW LA in wake of the cold
fropa earlier today. However, the 12.3-10.35um satellite imagery
depicts an extensive elevated AC/cirrus shield across much of
Cntrl and E TX/SE OK/SW AR/NW LA, associated along the 170kt+ upper
jet beneath the broad troughing aloft noted over the Desert SW
and Nrn MX. The short term progs have initialized well on this
elevated cloud cover (particularly at H400), which shifts the
densest part of this cloud cover E into Lower E TX/much of N
LA/far Srn AR by daybreak Monday. Despite the ongoing cold
advection, believe that the cloud cover will help limit the temp
fall overnight, with the exception of areas generally NW of the
I-30 corridor of NE TX/SW AR where this shield should thin late.

Have made some considerable adjustments to the sky grids, mainly
to beef them up across the Wrn 2/3rds of the region tonight
through Monday. Have also dropped pops tonight over the Ern zones
where the -RA has shifted E of the area, and did bump min temps
up a tad where the thicker AC/cirrus shield will spread E
overnight. Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast is in good
shape.

Zone update already out...grids will be available shortly.

15

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 537 PM CST Sun Feb 17 2019/

AVIATION...
Low MVFR cigs will linger over Ncntrl LA through mid-evening, before drier
air begins to sweep SE behind a cold frontal passage which has
shifted SE into SE MS/SE LA, resulting in a return of VFR
conditions at MLU between 03-05Z, as well as the SE sections of
Ncntrl LA. Elsewhere, VFR conditions are expected through the
18/00Z TAF period. Areas of high based AC with an extensive cirrus
shield will persist across the region overnight through Monday,
within a broad SWrly flow aloft in place from the Srn Rockies into
the Srn Plains and MS Valley. With sfc ridging continuing to
build S into the Lower MS Valley into the Ncntrl Gulf, N winds
5-8kts tonight will become ENE 9-12kts after 14Z. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  38  53  40  48 /   0   0  50  90
MLU  36  54  40  53 /   0   0  50  90
DEQ  28  50  35  41 /   0   0  20  90
TXK  32  48  36  42 /   0   0  30  90
ELD  33  50  37  46 /   0   0  30  90
TYR  36  51  39  44 /   0   0  40  90
GGG  36  53  39  46 /   0   0  40  90
LFK  37  60  44  54 /   0   0  60  90

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

15


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