Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 191512
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1012 AM CDT Wed Sep 19 2018

.UPDATE...
Another hot and humid day expected across the region as an upper
level ridge remains over the region today. Yesterday, most of the
afternoon highs across the area reached the mid to upper 90s, so
decided to bump highs into that range for this afternoon. Also,
can`t rule out a few isolated showers/t-storms during peak
daytime heating, so a blanket 20 percent pops for the entire
region seems reasonable for today. Other than that, the current
forecast package is on track. /20/


&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 552 AM CDT Wed Sep 19 2018/

AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail throughout the period for most sites.
VCTS is mentioned during the afternoon and early evening hours
for all sites as convection will increase with daytime heating.
Towards the end of the forecast period, there will be some patchy
fog creating MVFR conditions at select sites beginning around 06Z
and lasting through the early morning hours tomorrow. /35/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 404 AM CDT Wed Sep 19 2018/

SHORT TERM.../Today through Thursday/

The upper level high pressure will be centered just
north/northeast of the ArkLaTex today which will allow for
afternoon temperatures to reach the mid 90s once again. Heat
indices will be in the lower 100s this afternoon and possibly
again on Thursday. Rain chances today will be slim and confined
mainly to the afternoon and early evening timeframe. Low
temperatures will be in the mid 70s area-wide, making for another
muggy night.

The upper level high will shift further east on Thursday allowing
return flow from the Gulf of Mexico to make its way back into the
area. Rain chances will increase slightly for Deep East Texas and
Central Louisiana tomorrow afternoon and evening. High
temperatures on Thursday will not be quite as warm as today which
will start a downward trend that will last into the weekend. /35/

LONG TERM.../Thursday Night through Wednesday/

The upper-level ridge over the region will have shifted well east by
Friday. A sudden fetch of organized se flow will bring about
quick tstm development across most of the area around midday.
Meanwhile, an upper trough to the nw will begin to bring nwly flow
aloft and rain chances to increase to likely category across nrn
portions of area as a frontal boundary gets close to the cwa. With
flow over southern plains becmg more swrly in low lvls, will see
a stalling of this boundary thru the wknd with high chance or
better pops thru the wknd and possibly including the overnight
with the instability enhancement of the upper lvl flow from north.
With the convection and cloud cover across the region, aftn highs
will be slightly cooler with temperatures in the upper 80s to
around 90 degrees. This front will gradually wash out as upper
ridging builds back in from the east but mainly over the nrn gulf.
Rain chances may briefly abate to begin the workweek with
possible return to 90 plus temps, however, a much stronger long
wave trough will begin to take shape signaling possible end to the
unseasonal summer heat going into late September. With the
convection and cloud cover across the region, aftn highs will be
slightly cooler with temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90
degrees. /20/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  97  76  94  74 /  20  10  20  10
MLU  98  75  95  73 /  20  10  20  10
DEQ  97  72  93  72 /  20  10  20  10
TXK  97  76  93  73 /  20  10  20  10
ELD  98  75  94  73 /  20  10  20  10
TYR  96  75  92  74 /  20  10  20  10
GGG  97  75  92  74 /  20  10  20  10
LFK  95  75  91  74 /  20  10  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

20


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