Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 181754
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1254 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions to prevail through the remainder of today into the
overnight hours, before MVFR/IFR cigs develop at some sites around
or just after sunrise. Low clouds to mix out by mid to late
morning, with VFR returning prior to the end of the pd. Otherwise,
sly winds generally 5-10 kts will continue througout the 18Z
cycle. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1114 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019/

UPDATE.../Today/
Broad ridging aloft will keep our relatively benign weather
pattern going today. With that, we can expect temps to max out in
the mid 90s areawide, with heat index values in the upper 90s to
just over 100 degrees. While it will feel hot, we should stay
below the 105 degree Heat Advisory threshold. Temps/heat index
fcst is reasonably on track, so no updates needed there. Otherwise,
while a rogue shower can`t be entirely ruled out, coverage likely
not enough to warrant 20 PoPs. Will also leave PoPs as-is. /12/

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 413 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019/

SHORT TERM.../Today through Friday/

Upper ridging and hot temperatures will best describe the short
term portion of the forecast. A split ridge was anchored this
morning from East Texas and Northern Louisiana north and east into
Northeast Arkansas and Southeast Missouri with this ridge
expected to shift north and east towards the Middle Red River
Valley of S OK and N TX.

Given this ridge placement, subsidence from the top down and lower
PWAT values across our region should result in a sufficient
mixing down of dewpoints this afternoon. While there will be a few
locations who likely see heat index temperatures of near 105
degrees this afternoon, these conditions will not be widespread
for the above mentioned reasons and therefore a Heat Advisory will
not be issued with this package. Having said that, still expect
to see values near 100 to 104 across most locations with afternoon
ambient temperatures in the middle 90s both today into Friday.

Left pops out of the forecast today even through progs are picking
up on a weak seabreeze boundary today that will come northward
from the SE TX/S LA coast. Did include slight chance pops across
our extreme southern zones for Friday Afternoon with the
possibility that this boundary may make it a little further
northward with isolated showers and thunderstorms a possibility.

Prelims to follow...13.

LONG TERM..../Friday night through Wednesday night/

We will continue with very warm and humid conditions through this
weekend as the Bermuda ridge holds sway for a bit longer. However,
Sunday shows quick falls of heights aloft in the models as the
Westerlies take a dip over the mid West U.S. The low to mid 90s will
keep us on the edge of criteria with heat index uncomfortable, but
overall below 105.

The next cold front will be moving across the mid West and will dive
Southward on Monday into the midSouth with a fresh 1025mb high over
ND/SD. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some nocturnal will
likely accompany this frontal boundary with light NW flow aloft
setting us up to see this front move to our South during Tuesday as
now 1024mb high over IA/MO will continue to dry out the muggy air
with Northeasterly winds. So yes, now more of a backdoor passage
compared to yesterdays depiction.

Either way, we will look forward to some 80s again in late July next
week and even low dropping into the 60s areawide for midweek as the
1022mb high holds position over MO/IL. The WPC QPF total for our area
is averaging around an inch with less for I-30 and some 2 inch
totals for our South.

/24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  76  95  75 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  95  76  94  75 /  10  10  10   0
DEQ  94  73  94  74 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  93  77  94  75 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  94  75  94  74 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  95  77  95  75 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  96  77  95  75 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  94  74  94  75 /  10  10  20   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

12/13/24



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