Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 271756
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1156 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1001 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023

Late morning obs have indicated that a return to southerly sfc
flow is in full effect and with it we are warming up quickly
across the FA. Light mid-level clouds continue to drift across
southern zones at this hour as the 1030mb sfc ridge is located
along the coast of SE LA/MS/AL/NW FL. Winds are slightly weaker
across SW and S zones this morning as the pressure gradient
remains weakest in the region. The further north in the CWA you
travel the tighter the PG as the northern extent of the sfc ridge
is compressed against the southern side of a broad sfc low across
NE MN and the northern coast of Lake Superior.

With this, southerly sfc winds have been strongest helping to aid
in the warm air advection thus amplifying the rise in temperatures
as fast as they`ve been across E/TX, NW/LA and SW/AR. A prime
example of this is the difference between the 14z obs at Texarkana
where it was 37F to the latest 16z obs where at last check was
50F. That being said, depending how far north that mid-layer of
coverage gets will dictate some of the warming by the peak
afternoon period. For now with this update have gone ahead and
increased highs by one to two degrees for areas along and north of
the I-20 corridor where skies remain cloud free and southerly
flow is strongest. No major change to areas east of I-49 and the
current cloud covered zones well to the south of I-20.

/53/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 307 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023

Surface high pressure has settled over the area this morning,
resulting in mostly clear skies and light winds. This will allow
widespread frost to develop across the region this morning, as
temperatures will fall to near or just below freezing areawide.
However, the sfc high will start to push east of the region today,
allowing for SSW winds to return by this afternoon. Dry conditions
will remain, but we should see warmer afternoon temps, with highs
today in the upper 50s to lower 60s areawide.

This evening, sfc cyclogenesis will be developing across Eastern
Colorado. This will shift our winds to more of a southerly
direction, bringing in low-level moisture and low clouds, along
with warmer overnight lows Friday night into Saturday morning.
Temperatures should stay above freezing across the entire region,
as lows will range from the lower 40s in our western zones, to mid
to upper 30s across the Ark-La-Miss region.

On Saturday, the sfc low in Eastern Colorado will start to shift
eastward into the Southern Plains. Low-level moisture and warm air
advection will be on the increase, as the low-level jet and
southerly winds will ramp up across the region. Winds should stay
just below the sustained 20 mph Wind Advisory threshold, but it
will still be a gusty day, with sustained winds between 15-20 mph,
along with gusts as high as 30 mph. Rain chances will also return,
as isentropic ascent spreads across the western half of the region.
The best rain chances will be north of a line from Lufkin Texas
to Hope Arkansas, although rain could move as far east as NW
Louisiana and South-Central Arkansas. Even with rain and cloud
cover, still expecting afternoon highs generally in the 60s. /20/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 307 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023

Very progressive pattern will continue across the Southern
Plains/Lower Miss Valley as a series of shortwaves will keep the
long term unsettled.

WSW flow aloft will help to steer a weak disturbance eastward into
the Southern Plains Saturday Night. A very strong pressure gradient
will exist ahead of this disturbance resulting in rather breezy
conditions and dewpoints well into the 50s across our entire region.
This warming trend will be brief however as the leading edge of
colder air will accompany this weak disturbance with a frontal
passage Sunday into Sunday Night. Along with this disturbance will
be scattered to numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms Saturday
Night into Sunday with the precipitation briefly coming to and end
from northwest to southeast in the wake of the frontal boundary late
Sunday into Sunday Night.

SW flow aloft will continue in the wake of this initial, weak
disturbance as a longwave trough becomes cutoff across Baja before
ejecting out across the NW Mexico and the Four Corners Region of the
Country Tue/Tue Night. Weak upper forcing in this SW flow aloft will
result in increasing showers across mainly our western half on
Monday but areawide Monday Night into Tuesday. The frontal boundary
which pushed through our region Sunday and Sunday night will not
return north, but instead, will settle across the SE TX/SW LA coast
resulting in a mostly cold rain during early to mid week. Will need
to watch across our far northern zones for the possibility of some
light freezing rain, assuming of course that temperatures will fall
to freezing across this region which is certainly possible, mainly
north of the I-30 Corridor Tue Night.

As the upper trough to our west begins to slowly fill as it lifts
out into the Southern Plains Wed through Thu, periods of rain will
continue across our region. Much like Tue Night, there will be a
possibility of light freezing rain across the Middle Red River
Valley of far NE TX, SE Ok and SW AR Wed Night as well but again,
this will greatly depend on sfc temperatures as fcst mins Wed Night
are right at freezing.

Precipitation should finally come to an end during the day Thu/Thu
Night from northwest to southeast with the passage of the trough,
finally allowing for our region to dry out.

These periods of light freezing rain next week do not appear to be
significant as temperatures attm appear to be barely reaching
freezing, if they get there at all. It must be noted that NBM Min
Temps are on the lower side of guidance for much of next week which
were kept for this forecast. Obviously, sfc temperatures becoming
much colder across our far northern zones than what is currently
forecast would result in more impacts from the freezing rain and is
something we will continue to monitor very closely as we move into
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1143 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023

VFR conditions expected to continue across the early stages of
the 27/18z TAF period. Mostly clear skies across the airspace
this afternoon/evening as high pressure continues to dominate.
Southern terminal winds are weaker than northern terminals as the
pressure gradient continues to be weakest near KLFK, around the
same location where mid-level clouds have been most consistent
around FL200. I-20 corridor terminal winds and north continue to
trend between 10-15kts with occasional gusts as seen to the west
of the airspace. Winds should taper off towards the middle parts
of the period near 28/00z ahead of reinforcing southerlies near
the late stages of the period as VCSH and some -RA appear likely
between the 12-18z period of the cycle with lowering CIGs. This
will likely be the primary weather piece in future TAF packages.

/53/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  43  64  58  64 /   0  30  90  60
MLU  37  63  55  64 /   0  10  70  80
DEQ  36  57  49  56 /   0  50  80  20
TXK  42  61  55  58 /   0  40  90  30
ELD  38  60  53  61 /   0  20  90  50
TYR  44  64  57  60 /   0  50  70  30
GGG  42  64  57  62 /   0  40  80  40
LFK  44  68  59  67 /  10  30  80  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...53


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