Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 031120

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
520 AM MDT Wed Jun 3 2020

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure centered across the southern Rockies and
desert southwest will gradually expand northward late in the week.
The first in a series of Pacific storm systems will cross the area
late Friday into Saturday, followed by additional activity into
next week. Much cooler and wetter conditions can be expected with
these systems.


.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY)...High pressure is centered over
northern Mexico this morning, with the ridge extending up into
Arizona and New Mexico. Upstream, a cutoff low remains in place off
the SoCal/Baja coast. Meanwhile, a more zonal flow aloft is
currently in place over northern Utah. Aside from the ridge
amplifying a bit tomorrow, expect this pattern to continue through
tomorrow night.

A relatively dry airmass remains in place over Utah, with a slight
uptick in PWATs from yesterday. Patchy mid and high clouds are in
place to start the morning, with some weak high-based showers
evident on radar, mostly associated with a deformation axis between
the upstream low and a weak shortwave trough rippling by to the
north. Given some of this midlevel moisture, expect some isolated
convection to develop this afternoon, mostly weak and producing
little in the way of measurable precipitation. Otherwise,
temperatures will trend warmer today given the ridge position.

Temperatures will continue to warm tomorrow as the flow turns more
southwesterly. However, the airmass will trend a bit drier across
the south, while a pocket of midlevel moisture remaining across the
north will lead to isolated diurnal convection there.

The upstream low will start to eject inland on Friday. Ahead of
this, south-southwest flow will strengthen, drawing increased
moisture from the south. Highest PWATs are expected to occur in
eastern Utah, where values are progged to reach an inch or more.
This moisture, combined with a warm and somewhat unstable airmass,
will lead to increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms Friday
into Saturday. However, there are still differences in timing, with
the GFS still tracking the ejecting storm faster across the area
compared to the EC, Canadian, and NAM. As such, have trended the
forecast to focus PoPs more on the Friday evening and especially
overnight hours. Even so, any convection that develops in the
afternoon and early evening could see some organization, so strong
gusty winds and small hail will be possible. Also, as the airmass
moistens, heavy rain will be possible as well, especially later
in the day, with some of the stronger thunderstorms.

.LONG TERM (After 12z Saturday)...At the beginning of the long term
period, the storm system that brought rain and thunderstorms will be
moving out of Utah as a strong Pacific low pressure system moves
into northern California. Lingering rain chances will continue
across northern Utah and winds will begin to increase by Saturday
evening ahead of an approaching cold front.

Another round of rain with isolated thunderstorms will be possible
primarily across northern Utah as this next storm system swings
through. The biggest chance with this next storm system will be the
quick drop in temperatures as we head through the end of the weekend
and into next week. Current forecast highs on Monday are in the 60`s
across much of central and northern Utah. There could be enough cold
air and lingering moisture around during the morning hours on Monday
and Tuesday for some high elevation snow across the northern Wasatch.


.AVIATION...Minimal impacts can be expected across the SLC complex
as VFR conditions will continue through the valid TAF period. Winds
will primarily be out of the south, but will become light and
variable at points during the day.





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