Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 282140
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
240 PM MST Fri Feb 28 2020

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front moves across the region Saturday, with windy conditions
expected for most areas and strongest winds along the Rocky
Mountain Front and adjacent plains of north-central Montana. A
period of snow showers will accompany the frontal passage, mainly
across the mountains with isolated to scattered showers occurring
elsewhere. A few additional snow showers are possible across
north-central Montana Saturday night as a colder airmass and some
moisture move in from the north. Cooler temperatures on Sunday
will return to near or above seasonal averages next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Low pressure and cold front approaching the west coast this Friday
afternoon will move onshore this evening and rapidly translate east
across the Northern Rockies tonight with surface low pressure
emerging east of the Rockies in southern Alberta Friday morning.
The low tracks east across the Canadian Prairies through the day
Saturday while the associated cold front sweeps east across MT.
Gusty winds will be the main impact with the frontal passage on
Saturday through some snow showers are also expected across the
mountains, mainly near the continental divide. Winds increase
tonight along the Rocky Mtn front ahead of the approaching system
and latest model guidance has come up some with winds aloft over
NW portions of the forecast area through Saturday morning,
resulting in the likelihood of gusts reaching near 60 mph across
areas immediately east of the Rocky Mtn front and extending east
along the Canadian border across Glacier and Toole counties, where
a High Wind Warning will be been issued. Elsewhere across north-
central MT, Wind gusts of 40-50 mph will be possible following the
frontal passage Saturday morning as the front arrives and
continuing through the afternoon. Wind gusts in SW MT should
mainly be in the 30-40 mph on Saturday with higher values across
ridgetops and passes.

Winds turn northwesterly Saturday night as low pressure continues
east across the Canadian Prairies with moisture wrapping around the
back side of the low and moving south across north-central MT late
Saturday night through Sunday morning for a few snow showers,
mainly in northerly upslope favored locations. While most areas
will see little to no snow accumulation with this system some
mountain areas could see 1 to 3 inches of snow between the frontal
passage and later wrap-around snow showers with the greatest amounts
expected along the continental divide north of Marias Pass.

A cooler airmass from Canada slides south behind the exiting system
Saturday night, cooling temperatures back to near or even somewhat
below seasonal averages temporarily on Sunday before ridging
redevelops and temperatures warm back to above seasonal averages
Monday. The next system moves quickly SE to flatten the ridge by
Monday bringing another increase in winds and a chance for
showers as the system moves quickly SE across the region late
Monday. This looks like a repeating phenomenon through much of next
week as a series of weather disturbances move rapidly ESE across
the Northern Rockies and MT, bringing bouts of showery precipitation
and gusty winds while temperatures remain close to or slightly
above seasonal averages. Hoenisch

&&

.AVIATION...

Updated 1100 AM MST Fri Feb 28 2020 (28/18Z TAF Period)

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail though Saturday
morning. Expect gusty winds today at terminals across north-
central Montana, and across most sites on Saturday. Some stronger
winds are possible along the Rocky Mountain Front to the KCTB area
on Saturday morning. A passing cold front may bring some
increased clouds cover and mountain snow showers later Saturday
morning into Saturday afternoon, and perhaps some MVFR ceilings in
the southwest. Periods of LLWS and mtn wave turbulence are likely
along and east of the Continental Divide, especially late tonight
into Saturday as the next weather system moves into the region.
Anglin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  39  44  23  36 /   0   0  20  10
CTB  34  41  20  37 /   0   0  30   0
HLN  32  41  23  38 /  10  20  10  20
BZN  30  42  21  35 /  10  40  30  20
WYS  18  32  10  28 /  10  50  70  30
DLN  29  42  21  32 /  10  20  20  10
HVR  36  47  21  36 /   0   0  10   0
LWT  36  43  20  31 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning from 6 PM this evening to noon MST Saturday
Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to noon MST Saturday
Eastern Glacier...Toole.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls


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