Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 231137
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
540 AM MDT Tue Apr 23 2019

...Aviation Section Update...

.SYNOPSIS...

Tuesday, expect gusty winds throughout the area with the strongest
winds occurring along The Northern Rocky Mountain Front, adjacent
plains and into central Montana. Isolated showers will fall in the
mountains, while precipitation attempting to fall over lower
elevations is expected to evaporate before reaching the ground.
Warmer temperatures will prevail today and tomorrow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tuesday through Thursday...Tuesday, westerly cross-barrier flow
results in gusty winds throughout the Team tfx forecast area, with
the strongest winds expected along the Northern Rocky Mountain
Front, the adjacent plains and into central Montana. Moisture ahead
of the next low pressure system is advected into The Treasure State.
Expect cloudy skies and mountain showers. Moisture falling over
lower elevations is forecast to fall as virga...evaporating before
reaching the ground. Warm temperatures on Tuesday will continue into
Wednesday along with gusty winds. Wednesday will see a greater
chance of valley precipitation with a chance of thunderstorm
activity in southwest Montana. Thursday, a weak ridge builds into
the area from the west supporting subsidence and drying. The
northwesterly flow ahead of the ridge will favor some cooler
temperatures.

Friday through Tuesday...A trough moves into the area weakening the
ridge and dominating this weather story. A cooling trend will begin,
and overnight lows will fall below freezing. As of this time,
confidence is high on the approach of this system, cooling
temperatures and a forecast of rain by day and a rain/snow mix,
becoming snowfall, by night. There is some uncertainty, however, in
precipitation beginning and end times. The National Weather Service
National Blended Model favors precipitation beginning Friday morning
and continuing into Tuesday. Not all numerical models are as bullish
on precipitation duration. We continue to monitor this approaching
system and adjust our forecast, as needed, as we get closer in time
to the event.
-Fogleman

&&

.AVIATION...
Updated 540 AM MDT Tue Apr 23 2019 (23/12Z TAF Period)

Westerly cross-barrier flow results in gusty winds throughout the
Team tfx forecast area. The strongest winds will be expected along
The Northern Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains. Expect
turbulence particularly near mountains. Light precipitation is
expected in The Great Divide, as well as the mountains of central
Montana. Most precipitation over lower elevations will evaporate
before reaching the ground; however, some light rain may reach the
surface, intermittently. Expect mountain obscurations to occur
during this TAF period. VFR conditions prevail at all TAF locations.
-Fogleman

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A small stream flood advisory remains in effect for the central and
northern portions of Meagher County. Recent rainfall and snowmelt
continue to allow for the North Fork of the Smith River to exceed
bankful on the north side of the city of White Sulphur Springs.
Additional minor flooding from small streams is possible over the
northern portions of the county. Thus the flood advisory will
continue until further notice.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  65  45  62  37 /  10  10  10   0
CTB  63  39  60  33 /   0   0  10  10
HLN  66  42  62  34 /   0  10  10   0
BZN  66  39  62  32 /   0  10  30  10
WEY  58  32  57  27 /  20  10  50  10
DLN  65  39  62  33 /   0   0  10   0
HVR  70  42  62  36 /  20   0  20  20
LWT  66  43  61  36 /  20  10  20   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Small Stream Flood Advisory for central Meagher County until further
notice.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls


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