Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 160918

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
218 AM MST Sun Jun 16 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Mostly dry conditions with seasonable daytime heat
this week.


.DISCUSSION...Latest IR/WV satellite shows mostly clear skies across
southeast Arizona. Fairly dry with westerly flow as PWAT values
remain less than 0.50". There is just enough moisture in the White
Mountains where there will be a few build-ups and a slight chance of
an isolated thunderstorm or two this afternoon. Otherwise, dry
conditions for the remainder of the forecast area.

A very quiet weather regime for mid June will remain in place for
the week ahead. Flow pattern will keep the west to southwest flow
aloft through the week. Heights will build ever so slightly by
around Thursday to bump temperatures up slightly but we`re generally
looking at seasonable temperatures this week. Some minor model
differences by next weekend with regard to the extent of troughing
across the western US but regardless we`ll remain dry with some
minor cooling and an uptick in some breezes.


.AVIATION...Valid through 17/12Z.
Isolated -TSRA/-SHRA may occur across the White Mountains northeast
of KSAD this afternoon. Otherwise, mainly scattered cumulus clouds
with bases 10k-15k ft MSL across the White Mountains. Clear skies or
a few clouds above 25k ft MSL elsewhere into this evening, then
scattered to potentially broken clouds above 20k ft MSL by daybreak
Monday. Surface wind this afternoon and early this evening swly to
nwly 8-15 kts with gusts near 20 kts. Surface wind variable in
direction mainly under 10 kts at other times. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...There is a slight chance of thunderstorms this
afternoon across the White Mountains northeast of Safford.
Otherwise, dry conditions during the upcoming week. 20-foot winds
will generally be 15 mph or less into next Saturday. The strongest
speeds will mainly occur east of a line from Nogales to Safford.
Occasional gusts to 20-25 mph will occur during the afternoon hours
due to strong surface heating.






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