Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 241118

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
518 AM MDT Wed Apr 24 2019

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Tuesday)
Issued at 349 AM MDT Wed Apr 24 2019

Upper level analysis has generally zonal flow across the northern
CONUS with cut off low across northwest Mexico. Skies are partly
to mostly cloudy across the Northern Plains. At the surface, low
pressure is located across southern Manitoba with cold front
draped across Montana. Temperatures across the forecast area at
4am are in the 40s and 50s, with calm to light westerly winds.

Warm weather will continue today before the Montana cold front
pushes through the area during the day. Chances for showers and a
few thunderstorms will increase by the afternoon over northeast
WY and far western SD, then spread east across the rest of the
area in the evening. Best chances for precip will be across the
Black Hills area into southwestern SD. Showers will linger across
far southern portions of SD into the overnight hours. Lows
tonight will be in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

The rest of the week looks to be a bit cooler, but still near to
slightly above average as west-northwest flow aloft persists. A few
showers are possible late Thursday night over the Black Hills
area into southwest SD with a weak disturbance. Models are in
good agreement on an unsettled pattern for late week through early
next week as a series of shortwave disturbances cross the region,
but differ some on the exact timing and track of these systems.
The best chances for rainfall right now look to be late Friday
into Friday night and again late sunday into Monday. Cooler air
will move into the area with the late weekend system, with snow
showers a possibility later Sunday night into the first part of
next week, especially across the higher elevations of the forecast


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued At 514 AM MDT Wed Apr 24 2019

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop over
northeastern Wyoming and the Black Hills area this afternoon and
spread across much of the rest of western South Dakota this
evening. Mainly VFR conditions are expected, but some local MVFR
CIGS are possible with the showers and thunderstorms especially
over the higher terrain of the Black Hills.




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