835
FZAK80 PAFC 070008
ICEAFC

Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters
National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program
308 PM AKST Friday 6 December 2024

FORECAST VALID...Wednesday 11 December 2024

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...Moderate to low.

SYNOPSIS...High pressure will persist across the Chukchi and
Beaufort Seas through Monday. A low from the north Pacific Ocean
will track north into the Bering Sea on Sunday, and then low
pressure will generally linger across the Bering Sea through Wednesday.
Low pressure will spread north into the Chukchi Sea on Tuesday and
Wednesday while higher pressure persists across the Beaufort Sea.

-BEAUFORT SEA-

PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-
PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-
PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-
PKZ859-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett from 15 to 75 nm-
PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 15 to 80 nm-
PKZ861-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point from 15 to 75 nm-

Ice covered.

FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast
confidence is high. Winds will be northerly to easterly through
Saturday, then easterly Sunday through Wednesday. Expect pack ice to
move with the Beaufort Gyre to the west around 10-15 nm/day through
Saturday and then with the easterly winds from Sunday through
Wednesday. Expect a shear zone to form between the growing shorefast
ice and the rest of the pack. Thickening ice conditions will persist
through Wednesday.

-CHUKCHI SEA-

PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-
PKZ809- Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-
PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm-
PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-
PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-
PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm-
PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm-
PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm-
PKZ859-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett from 15 to 75 nm-
PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-
PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm-

Ice covered.

PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm-

In the Chukchi Sea, the main ice edge extends from near Diomede to
67 7N 167 16W to 67 12N 169 18W to 66 44N 170 34W to 66 12N
169 25W to 65 55N 169 21W.

From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from
near Diomede to 70 nm southwest of Kivalina to 110 nm west-southwest
of Kivalina to 150 nm southwest of Kivalina to 145 nm south-southwest
of Kivalina to 15 nm northwest of Diomede.

FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast
confidence is high. Northerly winds will persist through early
Saturday and then shift primarily easterly through Wednesday.
Easterly wind strength will increase noticeably out of the Kotzebue
Sound on Monday and Tuesday. As winds shift more easterly, expect
large polynyas to form along the west facing coastlines, especially
from Utqiagvik through Cape Lisburne. Any shorefast ice in this area
will be vulnerable to break off. Thickening ice conditions will
persist through Saturday before a pause due to stronger winds and a
warmer air mass overhead.

-BERING SEA-

PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Peirce out to 15 nm-
PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm-
PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm-
PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm-
PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm-
PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-
PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm-
PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm-
PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm-

Ice covered.

PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 NM-
PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 nm-
PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm-
PKZ816-South side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-
PKZ817-North side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-
PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm-
PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm-
PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm-

In the Bering Sea, the ice edge extends from near Pilot Point to 58
58N 166 29W to 62 50N 168 41W to 65 48N 169 11W and continues
southwest into Russian waters. The ice edge is open water.

From land-based points in Alaska, the ice edge extends from near
Pilot Point to 50 nm south of Cape Mendenhall to 105 nm west of
Sheldon Point to 7 nm west of Diomede and continues southwest into
Russian waters. The ice edge is open water.

FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence
is moderate. The storm track to the east of Bristol Bay, then into
the Bering Sea will pause growth first in the Bristol Bay area
through the period, then for most of the Bering Sea on Monday as a
large system moves into the eastern Bering Sea along with a warmer
air mass. Light to moderate northerly and easterly winds will
persist through the weekend from the Bering Strait through Norton
Sound to the Yukon Delta. Stronger easterly winds on Monday through
Wednesday will continue the ice edge moving westward, opening a
large polynya along eastern Norton Sound. The warmer air
accompanying the system will likely melt some of the newly formed
ice in the area.

For the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay, from the weekend into early
next week, expect a large retreat in sea ice, more so for Bristol
Bay as easterly and southerly winds affect the coast.

-COOK INLET-

PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-

SYNOPSIS...The Cook Inlet region will remain between high pressure
over interior Alaska and low pressure south of the Gulf of Alaska
through Monday. A low will move north toward the eastern Kenai
Peninsula Tuesday and Wednesday.

The main ice edge extends from the East Foreland to the West
Foreland. The majority of ice in the upper Inlet runs right along
the coast from the East Foreland to Turnagain Arm.

FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is
high. Lighter northerly winds will persist through the forecast
period, and temperatures will gradually moderate to the 20s and
lower 30s. Warmer air overhead will continue to stall sea ice growth
and melt existing ice.


&&
Fenrich