Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 061908
SPC MCD 061908

Mesoscale Discussion 1969
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0108 PM CST Mon Dec 06 2021

Areas affected...Parts of southwestern Georgia...southern
Alabama...southeastern Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 061908Z - 062115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Some intensification of thunderstorm development is still
possible late this afternoon, particularly across parts of south
central through southeastern Alabama by 3-4 PM CST.  While this may
be accompanied by the risk of a few strong wind gusts and/or,
perhaps, a tornado, it still seems unlikely that a severe weather
watch will be needed.  Trends, however, will continue to be

DISCUSSION...There has been some weak boundary-layer destabilization
ahead of the line of more vigorous thunderstorm development, which
continues to advance southward near/just ahead of the cold front.
Convection along the line appears to have been periodically enhanced
by subtle mid-level perturbations/speed maximum within the weak
branch of westerlies emanating from the subtropical Pacific.
However, the primary mid-level short wave impulse, within the
mid-latitude westerlies, is passing well to the northeast of the
region, and deep-layer mean wind fields are generally maintaining
modest strength or slowly weakening across the Gulf Coast vicinity.

Still, a lingering belt 30-40 kt west-southwesterly to westerly flow
in the 850-700 mb layer, coincident with the line of storms, may be
sufficient to maintain continuing risk for a few strong surface
gusts and/or an isolated tornado through the remainder of the
afternoon.  With further boundary-layer destabilization still
possible, there might be some intensification of ongoing storms,
particularly across parts of south central through southeastern
Alabama by 21-22Z.

..Kerr/Hart.. 12/06/2021

...Please see for graphic product...


LAT...LON   31008966 31448840 32238777 32348648 32478537 32858477
            32728434 31018525 30608760 30769048 31008966 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.