Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 242337
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
737 PM EDT Tue May 24 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A moist southeasterly flow will keep plenty of clouds over
Central PA and the Susquehanna Valley for the next few days.

Upper level low pressure will approach Pennsylvania late this
week, then slowly lift across the region over the upcoming
weekend. The upper low is likely to exit the area by Memorial
Day, as anomalous upper level ridging expands eastward from the
Ohio Valley.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Drier air moving in from the east is trying to poke some holes
in the overcast. As forecast, though, it is having trouble doing
so. There will be breaks, esp over the east as dewpoints dip
into the 40s. Some high clouds will also drift overhead, too.
The cloud cover and a flow off the cool Atlantic should hold
temperatures a few deg F above normal across Northern PA and a
few Deg cooler than normal over the Lower Susq Valley - or
within 1-2F of 50.

Any locations where clouds break overnight will likely see
patchy late night valley fog thanks to light winds and high
relative humidity.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A building upper level ridge along the east coast should ensure
mostly cloudy skies and mainly dry weather for both Wednesday
and Thursday.

The persistent low-level southeast flow off of the Atlantic
will help to maintain relatively cool conditions.

Will continue to trim the NBM`s max temps both days as a result
of its warm bias in easterly flow/cold air damming scenarios.
Model RH profiles indicate that the thickest layer of strato cu
will likely reside across the Central and Scent Mtns Wednesday.


As high pressure retreats off of the coast, increasing low
level moisture advection is progged to result in stratus
expanding northward over the area Wednesday night into Thursday,
with even some patchy drizzle possible over parts of eastern Pa,
where progged RH in the sfc-850mb layer nears 100pct. Scattered
Thursday PM showers are possible over the Allegheny Plateau in
vicinity of a slow-moving warm front over western Pa.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Ensembles continue to be in good agreement during this extended
period for a slowly filling closed low to eject from the Ohio
Valley and cross the Commonwealth Friday into Saturday. This is
somewhat slower than previous day`s solutions, and means that
Saturday morning will be murky to start across especially
central and eastern areas as drier air slowly works in from the
west.

Over the long holiday weekend, confidence has increased with more
GEFS members latching onto a more progressive and optimistic
scenario for the remainder of the holiday weekend. This makes
rising heights and improving weather increasingly likely for
Sunday and Monday. NBM consistency is notable here, with gradual
improvement still advertised on Saturday, followed by largely
dry and seasonably warm weather holding for Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Ceilings expected to be steady-state or lower a few to several
hundred more feet late today and this evening with MVFR or low
end MVFR the rest of this afternoon and early tonight.

Spotty light rain/drizzle is expected across the Central and
Scent Mtns this evening and tonight.

A return to VFR is possible by early Wednesday morning, but may
be delayed if low clouds are slow to move out.

Outlook...

Wed...MVFR cigs could persist At KJST/KAOO/KUNV into the midday
hours with bkn-ovc VFR cigs (Bases 4-6 kft AGL) elsewhere due
to continued easterly/southeasterly flow.

Thu...Predominantly VFR, with brief restrictions possible in
scattered SHRA/TSRA.

Fri-Sat...Reductions likely in SHRA/TSRA as low pressure
approaches from the Ohio Valley.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Fitzgerald
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Fitzgerald/Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Fitzgerald
LONG TERM...Jurewicz/DeVoir
AVIATION...Lambert/Evanego/Gutierrez


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