455
FXUS61 KCTP 141735
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
Issued by National Weather Service Binghamton NY
135 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Daily chances for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms
  through Saturday as temperatures trend above average.
* A cold front will bring cooler temperatures and less
  rainy/more sunny weather later this weekend and early next
  week.
* Next weather maker arrives for the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Shower activity has waned considerably this morning as shortwave
energy continues to drift east of the area. Rainfall totals
yesterday and overnight were highest across south central PA -
as expected - with widespread 2-4" amounts and local totals
exceed 5". River Flood Warnings remain in effect for the
Youghiogheny at Confluence and Aughwick Creek at Shirleysburg
and several other streams/creeks saw significant rises
overnight.

With an upper low continuing to swirl nearby today, diurnally
driven showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two are expected
once again this afternoon. HREF PMM QPF depicts only widely
scattered accumulation with amounts greater than 1" unlikely at
this time. Mostly cloudy skies and a cool/moist easterly flow
will limit instability and help keep temperatures in the 60s for
all but south central PA, where the low 70s are likely.
Drizzle/ridge shrouding fog is expected through the day with
little improvement expected.

Overnight, shower activity should taper off even further, but
lowering ceilings/inversion height will support continued
drizzle/low clouds and perhaps some fog. Low temperatures by
daybreak Thursday will be in the upper 50s and low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The upper trough that has brought unsettled weather for the
better part of the week will weaken and lift northeast Thursday
and Friday. However, an upstream trough in the northern stream
will be approaching from the Great Lakes region. This energy,
plus a warm frontal approach Thursday, then a cold frontal one
Friday, will bring more diurnally favored showers and storms.

Latest hi-resolution model guidance is beginning to come into
range for thunderstorm evolution Thursday night into Friday
morning ahead of the approaching warm front. Ample shear and
sufficient lift from the front could support a line of strong
thunderstorms racing across the Great Lakes later Thursday into
Friday morning. Storms could bring some gusty winds on Friday
morning as the parent lo occludes and deepens in the upper
Midwest. SPC has placed the western two-thirds of PA in a
Marginal Risk of severe weather for early Friday morning.

Afternoon highs Thursday and Friday will trend warmer each day
(70s-lower 80s), given the anticipation of breaks of sunshine
and winds shifting to come out of the southeast (Thursday) and
then southwest (Friday).

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The next system to watch will be an incoming short-wave in the
northern stream tracking from the Upper Midwest across the
Northeastern CONUS this weekend. The combination of that short-
wave and a surface frontal complex will bring lingering
convection on Saturday.

Still some uncertainty on Sunday with a cyclonic flow aloft and
the passage of a secondary surface cool front. Thus, there
remains enough uncertainty to justify the mention of at least
scattered showers for the second part of the weekend. Upper
ridging will build in toward the start of next week, but
uncertainty remains with how quickly the brighter/drier
conditions build in. On the optimistic side, Sunday evening
could see plenty of sunshine. Pessimistically, sunshine may wait
until Monday.

Early next week, model trends favor at least a brief period of
drier conditions, with short-wave ridging aloft and a surface
anticyclone building down from south-central Canada. The break
in the clouds/rain will be relatively short-lived with another
storm system approaching by the middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Extensive cloud cover and cool temperatures will keep the chance
of showers less today. Main area of convection just east of
our area. Few showers just south of far western PA. Thus used
VCSH in the 18Z TAF package.

Expect low CIGS into Thursday morning, with some fog overnight.

As the sfc and upper level low edge just to the east of our
area Thursday morning, expect conditions to improve some by
early afternoon on Thursday.

Outlook...

Fri...Morning storms (some could be strong), improving
conditions in the afternoon.

Sat...Mainly VFR, isolated PM showers/storms.

Sun...Some improvement, as a series of cold fronts move
southeast of the area.

Mon...Mainly dry with VFR conditions. Perhaps a shower
early at BFD and JST, with MVFR CIGS early at these sites.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for PAZ033-034.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Jurewicz/Banghoff
NEAR TERM...Jurewicz/Banghoff
SHORT TERM...Jurewicz/Banghoff
LONG TERM...Jurewicz/Banghoff
AVIATION...Martin