Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 301842

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
242 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020

An upper trough will bring cooler conditions to the region for
much of the week. Scattered light showers are expected tonight
and Tuesday, especially across the northern half of the state.
Wednesday will be mostly cloudy as well with a few more showers,
but we`ll finally see drier air arrive from north to south to
scour out out the clouds as the day wears on. Thursday through
Saturday will be mainly dry, but a chance of showers may return
late in the weekend.


Upper trof and secondary cold front crossing into northeast Pa
this afternoon had isold lightning accompanying low topped
covective showers earlier on. Garden variety instability showers
are scattered about the northwest half of central PA and will
last into the evening before decreasing. Cooler air filters over
the Commonwealth tonight, as the filling upper low and inverted
sfc trof settle over the state. This will keep a good deal of
clouds and still some isold to sct v light showers in the
forecast. Highest elevations could be wet snow but not expecting
any accums given marginal temps and very light intensity. Lows
will range from the lower 30s northwest to the lower 40s


Clouds stay in place Tuesday as filling upper low remains in
place. Isold to sct showers are once again expected...and have a
better chance of being mixed with snow across the northern half
of central PA as well as the higher elevs. Highs range from the
mid 40s north to the lower 50s south.


1045 am update... On the large-scale, an upper low over the
northeastern states at the start of the period (mid-week), will
gradually open up and lift out from Thursday-Saturday, as a
narrow upper ridge axis approaches from the Midwest. Later in
the weekend, the aforementioned upper ridge axis will begin to
flatten out just west of the Commonwealth, allowing some
northern stream short-wave energy and an associated cold front
to approach.

As for the daily sensible weather, Wednesday will feature chilly
temperatures and isolated-scattered showers, particularly for
the northern tier, underneath the cold core aloft. Thursday
through much of Saturday look dry, as a surface ridge axis
extending southward from a large eastern Canadian anticyclone
shifts across the Commonwealth. Temperatures through this period
will moderate with time, and should reach the lower 60s in some
areas by the weekend. Our next chance of showers may come
Saturday night and Sunday, tied to the approach of a weak cold
front mentioned earlier in the discussion.

Bottom line, no major storms or anomalous temperature regimes
are foreseen for central PA over the next week or so.


MVFR Cigs prevail for most as upper low settles over N central
PA. Times of showers will be seen through the early evening,
with MVFR cigs contg tonight and just isold shwrs mainly across
the north. Tuesday will see mostly cloudy conds with MVFR
cigs and sct shra.


Tuesday night Wednesday...Thickening clouds and rain, possibly
mixed with wet snow across the higher terrain.

Thursday...Improving conditions in northwest flow.

Friday...Chance of a shower across the northwest, otherwise dry.




LONG TERM...Jurewicz
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