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000
FXUS61 KCTP 191918
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
318 PM EDT Wed Sep 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build southeast into Pennsylvania, bringing
fair weather and light winds today and tonight. A cold front
will push through the Commonwealth late Friday and Friday night.
A new area of high pressure is expected to move in for the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A nice afternoon is in progress with warm temps, light winds
and a bright sky. Dewpoints are still in the mid 60s over the
southeast, but over the bulk of the region they have dropped
back into the 50s to lower 60s.

With high pressure building across to our north, drier air will
continue to seep in from the north. It should be a comfortable
night for sleeping for a change with lows in most areas in the
50s. Most importantly the dewpoints will also be in the 50s to
only around 60.

With clear skies and light winds, areas of dense fog are
possible late tonight into early tomorrow morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
High pressure will nose down from New ENgland all the way to the
Carolinas Thursday. 12Z models now make for a rain free day, so
we backed off the previously low POPs. Highs in the 70s will
still be near to several degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A mild and humid (for late-September) Thursday night is in
store, before a cold front approaches from the Great Lakes on
Friday.

Showers and possibly a few strong storms storms will arrive
late in the day across NW PA. This activity should diminish as
it continues southeastward across the commonwealth Friday
night.

Cooler, less humid air will arrive behind the front for the
upcoming weekend. The frontal boundary will stall just south of
the Mason-Dixon line, and could keep some clouds over southern
PA.

Eventually, the front will begin to return northward, although
there is some model disagreement as to how quickly it returns.
Southern PA runs the risk of getting wet Sunday or Sunday
night, while showers should return northward across the
remainder of the commonwealth on Monday.

The pattern will looks to remain unsettled for the first half
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Widespread VFR will continue into the overnight. A NNW flow
5-15kt will decrease to under 5kt overnight. The mainly fair
skies and light winds will lead to more valley fog late tonight
through mid morning Thursday.


.Outlook...

Fri...Early morning cig reductions likely. SHRA/TSRA aftn/eve.
CFROPA late.

Sat...Morning fog poss. Otherwise no sig wx.

Sun-Mon...VFR after morning fog.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...La Corte
SHORT TERM...La Corte
LONG TERM...Evanego
AVIATION...La Corte