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000
FXUS61 KCTP 081944
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
344 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
The weather pattern will trend drier and increasingly warmer
for the first part of the new week. The heat and humidity will
be ramping back up in the coming days. The return of the
hot/humid conditions eek will help fuel isolated afternoon and
evening thunderstorms by mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Weak capping inversion in place early on today, along with more
of a westerly flow, has prevented any large clusters of showers
and storms from forming this afternoon.

Still have a slight chance of showers and storms across the east
until early evening, for anything that forms for a brief time.
Eastern areas have seen a decrease in dewpoints, but have had
more heating so far.

Patchy fog is possible later tonight, even with less southeast
flow than the last 2 nights, given light winds and recent the
rainfall.

I did not make any large changes to the low temperatures
tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Looking at a dry day on Sunday. While a weak wind max moves
southeast from the upper Great Lakes, 500 mb heights rise at the
same time, thus the 2 parameters likely to offset each other.
Thus I held off on the mention of showers for Sunday.

Temperatures will trend toward the hot side again. Dewpoints not
real high for Sunday or even Monday, thus for the most part we will
stay below heat advisory criteria. The highest dewpoints would be
after Sunday anyway.

I did put patchy fog in again for Sunday night. While the fog
may be less likely than in recent nights, the airmass is
becoming more humid with time.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Flat flow or even a very slight ridging overhead to start the
period will be followed by a minor trough and attendant front
for mid-week which will lead to a daily chance for showers and
thunderstorms through the end of the week. The best chance for
showers or thunderstorms will be in the afternoon and evening,
with convection diminishing after sunset. Some areas of central
Pennsylvania are still experiencing abnormally dry conditions
and could use the rain, while other areas, mainly east of the
Susquehanna have received 4 or more inches of rain over the last
week.

Heat Index values take a run at the upper 90s in the Lower
Susq. through the middle of next week, then temperatures will
trend closer to normal through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
It took unitl late morning and early morning, but all sites VFR
now.

An isolated shower at times on the radar. Anything that forms
should be gone by sunset.

Main thing later tonight and Sunday night will be patchy fog.

Expecting dry weather and VFR conditions for Sunday and most
likely again for Monday.

Outlook...

Mon...Mainly VFR. Patchy low clouds and fog possible early in
the morning.

Tue-Thu...Increasing potential for showers and thunderstorms,
along with associated restrictions.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Martin
NEAR TERM...Martin
SHORT TERM...Martin
LONG TERM...Travis
AVIATION...Martin