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035
FXUS61 KCTP 200928
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
528 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain will clip the southeast half of central PA today as low
pressure (Post Tropical Cyclone Nestor) continues to move
northeast along the Southeast U.S. coast. Dry weather is
expected tonight through Monday before another period of rain
moves across the region on Tuesday. Dry weather returns for
Wednesday and will likely last into the second half of the
week. Near normal temperatures are forecast through late
October.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Latest radar and hires models are bullish trend for both
coverage and duration of light rain across the southeast 1/2 of
the CWA through today. However, no significant changes to QPF
with maximum amounts 0.25-0.50" still expected over the far
south central and southeast counties. Locations to the northwest
of a line from Clearfield to Wellsboro should stay dry.

Extended duration of light rain now expected to last through the
afternoon and into the evening before shifting eastward.
Cloudy skies and persistent light rain will keep max temps in
the mid to upper 50s. The warmest readings will be over the far
northwest mtns where more sunshine should allow temps to reach
the low to mid 60s.

Partial clearing early tonight may be outdone by low clouds
developing late and expanding into early Monday morning. Not a
sure bet, but the HREF and hires model forecast soundings
generally support this idea, so will hedge in that direction.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The extent of low clouds and rate of dissipation beneath
inversion/high pressure ridge axis may impact maxT on Monday
with risk to the downside (current fcst may be too high).
Otherwise, expect a dry start to the week.

Model spread continues to narrow (confidence increasing) in the
next rain event on Tuesday. Expect a band of rain with heavier
downpours moving west to east during the day. The GFS is still
rather progressive and weak overall with much lower QPF vs.
consensus. A secondary frontal wave of low pressure is progged
to develop near the Delmarva Tuesday evening which should slow
down the system progression enough to continue rain over the
far eastern zones into the first part of Tuesday night. A blend
of NBM/WPC QPF results in widespread 0.50-1" soaking rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Turning mostly sunny and cooler for midweek. Light rain/showers
should be confined to the eastern Great Lakes through late week
based on the latest ensemble guidance. Model spread has
increased significantly with the weekend system and therefore
confidence is low/below average concerning precip trends. There
will be some minor daily fluctuations above/below climo, but
overall expect temperatures to be near normal heading into the
end of the month.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00z update... VFR will continue overnight, with mainly high-
level cloudiness spreading across central PA.

Early Sunday morning, generally in the 12-15z time frame, lower
clouds and light rain will move into KLNS and KMDT, associated
with a storm system off the mid-Atlantic coast. At this point,
it appears that at least a brief period of IFR is likely at
these two sites during the late morning and early afternoon
period.

Elsewhere over central PA, although a more solid overcast will
be present on Sunday, VFR/unrestricted conditions are still
foreseen, with much higher ceiling bases expected.

.Outlook...

Mon...AM valley fog anticipated, otherwise VFR.

Tue...Rain/low cigs possible.

Wed and Thu...No sig wx expected.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Jurewicz/DeVoir