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000
FXUS61 KCTP 200409
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1109 PM EST Sun Jan 19 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough will swing through the northeast CONUS
early in the upcoming week. High pressure will then settle over
the region for the second half of the week bringing perhaps
the coldest air of the season.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LE still enduring clouds and -SHSN as of 02Z. There are some
large breaks in the cloud deck over Warren and McKean Cos,
though. After chatting with BUF and CLE, we agreed that we can
probably drop the LES flags as additional accums will be very
minor, maybe no more than a dusting. Clearing may come
begrudgingly but the HRRR soundings for BFD show the inversion
crashing into the ground around sunrise. Kept sky cover a little
more pessimistic than total clearing, though. The llvl flow will
still be out of the NW all night and into the daylight. Expect
mins in the teens and upper single digits. The north may be the
spot to bust (too cold of a forecast) if the clouds do not go
away appreciably. But, they only have to dip 5-6F to get to the
curr fcst mins. Holding the line.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Aside from some early day snow showers over the northwest
mountains and Laurels, Monday will be cold and dry and feature
max temps similar to today`s (Sunday), that will range from the
upper teens to lower 30s in the SE. These temps are about 6-7F
below climate normals for Mid January.

Upper ridge and elongated surface high build over the eastern
U.S. early in the upcoming  week, keeping the rest of the
workweek mainly dry with chilly temps 5-10 degrees below normal
through midweek. Tuesday and Wednesday mornings will feature
some of the coldest air of the season so far.

Temperatures should moderate to near normal by Wed afternoon, as
the main axis of the high pressure system moves east of our
area.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
After a couple of cold days, temps should rise back to normal on
Wed and keep climbing a few degrees each day. Even after The
potential precip next weekend, temps do not look like they would
go back below normal. CPC 6-10 day temperature out look is well
above normal, and the 8-14 day is near to above normal for
central PA.

Prev...
An upper level shortwave trough will move into the Pac NW on
Tuesday and dig southeastward into the Great Plains region by
Friday morning. Some model discrepancies between the ECMWF,
with a more amplified solution, and the GFS with more zonal
flow. In the 12z Sun ECMWF run, the upper low closes off by
Saturday morning and passes south of our area, keeping us in the
colder air as some wintry precip spills into the southern half
of PA Saturday night. In the 12z Sun GFS run, the upper trough
passes over Erie, PA with a broad frontal system moving across
the area, with a wintry mix at onset going over to rain as
warmer air moves in Saturday, and then back to snow showers
behind the cold front Sat night. Ensemble guidance tending
towards the GFS so far. Not a surprise given the pattern we have
been in, with generally zonal flow and storm tracks going west
of us.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR conds will continue overnight across western two thirds of
airspace, with IFR at KBFD/KJST. Snow showers diminishing but
low cigs will take longer to dissipate.

VFR conds will dominate starting around sunrise Monday most
sites and by mid morning across the northern and western mtns.

.Outlook...

Tue...Mainly dry, but still a chance of snow showers across the
northwest.

Wed-Thu...Mainly dry.

Fri...Rain/wintry mix Fri aftn and night. Restrictions psbl.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...DeVoir
LONG TERM...Dangelo/Colbert
AVIATION...Gartner/Banghoff