Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000
FXUS61 KCTP 221800
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
100 PM EST Tue Jan 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...

Milder air will stream into the region through mid week ahead of
a wavy frontal system. A weak low may develop on the trailing
cold front and lift northeast across the Mid Atlantic states
early Thursday. Another Arctic airmass will move into the region
Thursday night and early Friday, with the cold air expected to
hang around into the weekend.



&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Satellite is showing the first of the mid and high clouds out
ahead of the wavy front moving out of the Midwest. The rest of
the day and most of the overnight will remain dry with the
increasing clouds.

The main issue with the upcoming front and precip will be the
potential for a light icing event. The latest HREF holds off the
bulk of the precip until after sunrise for most areas. We
issued an advisory for freezing rain starting at 06Z over the
far NW, but held off the remainder of the CWA until after 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...

Clouds will continue to increase tonight. Moisture will
increase sufficiently between 06-12z for some ZR/IP to develop
over the Northwest Mountains, but it appears that precip will
hold off until after 12z elsewhere. A period of light freezing
rain and/or sleet appears likely during the morning over the
south-central areas. The light icing will likely linger through
mid afternoon over the NE.

The milder air eventually wins out with highs ranging from the
lower to middle 40s south, but still some mid to upper 30s
across the north/northeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Focus for precip through midweek will be a trailing cold front
from initial Great Lakes low pressure, and then a strengthening
wave developing along the southern part of the front and
tracking northward up the Mid Atlantic/New England coast. There
is still uncertainty in strength/timing/track of the frontal
wave but currently there is potential for at least some wintry
weather to the north/west of the low track.

Another shot of arctic air should arrive by the end of the week
with some lake effect snow showers. The GFS is faster vs. ECMWF
with the next system into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Widespread VFR expected into tonight with thickening mid level
clouds spreading from west to east.

LLWS is likely late tonight into early Wednesday morning
especially across the western 1/3 of the airspace. Precip should
move into the far northwest airspace btwn 06-12Z as freezing
rain or sleet, continuing westward throughout the morning and
afternoon. Far southern terminals should remain mild enough to
be just rain.

Central and northern terminals will also see conditions lower to
sub-VFR, by sunrise at BFD. Probably not until mid to late
morning over central and northeastern terminals.


Outlook...

Thu...Cold fropa with rain changing to snow west to east.
Turning windy and colder Thu night with snow showers.

Fri...MVFR/VFR with scattered snow showers and gusty NW winds.

Sat-Sun...VFR/MVFR with chance of snow.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday for
PAZ006-011-012-017>019-024>028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>058.
Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday for
PAZ004-005-010.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...La Corte
SHORT TERM...La Corte
LONG TERM...DeVoir/Steinbugl
AVIATION...La Corte



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