Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 201854
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
254 PM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A large area of high pressure will build into the area and
dominate our weather through at least Monday. A gradual warming
trend will ensue and get us back to near normal temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Clouds have reached a stasis for the moment, but should be
dissipating as we lose the heating/mixing/instability. Dewpoints
did not dry out as much as expected, but are still only in the
20s. The gradient slackens even more tonight, and with
decoupling, we should be able to crack the freezing mark almost
everywhere again tonight. Some wind may be left on the ridges,
but most of the populous areas will drop aob freezing overnight.

We have another plot of counties added to the areas in the
growing season for Saturday morning/tonight as the normal last
freeze is past there. In near-perfect timing, it happens
coincident with our mins expected to drop aob 32F. So, We will
hoist another freeze warning for the morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
The only mar to Saturday will be a shield of high clouds which
should slip overhead. They may not be thick enough to cause any
forecast trouble, but it is in the back of my mind that they
could knock a deg or two off the maxes. So, I will hold off on
changing the temps at all, even though model guid would nudge us
up a few degs. Less wind and the sun will make it feel like
spring.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The next weather maker is advertised to begin affecting the
region around Tuesday and beyond. An upper low currently over
southern Utah is made to track east under the upper ridge that
extends from the Midwest up into Canada. As the low emerges onto
the plains it takes on a sort of rex-blocky appearance as it
crawls eastward.

Models are in good agreement in eventually opening up this low
as it approaches the east coast, reforming the long wave trough
over the eastern US by the end of the week. The good news is
that what looks like it could end up being several days of
unsettled weather, it will be mild enough that the precipitation
type will be rain.

High temperatures are expected be colder than normal throughout
the forecast period. But being only a few degrees below normal
will feel relatively nice given the almost constant much below
normal temperatures we have endured so far this month.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure building into PA this weekend will keep VFR
conditions across the region into at least Monday.
Winds will remain gusty until late aft or evening, and then drop
off, esp across the west and lower elevs in the east.

Just high clouds tomorrow with little sfc/llvl mstr to make
anything more than few cu.

Outlook...

Sun-Mon...No sig wx expected.

Tue...Rain/low cigs possible PM.

Wed...Rain/low cigs.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Saturday for PAZ026>028-
035-036-049>052-056-057-059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...La Corte/Lambert
AVIATION...Dangelo


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