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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCTP 250041
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
841 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A large area of high pressure will keep rain-free weather over
the region for most of the weekend. Summer-time heat and humidity
will also be building with time.

A progressive cold front is expected to provide a threat for
showers or thunderstorms from late Sunday into early Monday.

Drier and somewhat cooler weather should follow for later
Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Scattered cumulus should dissipate with the loss of heating this
evening. The arrival of ridging at the surface and aloft
should ensure fair weather overnight. However, a calm wind
and mainly clear skies is likely to promote patchy late night
valley fog, as the latest SREF and NAMNest suggest. Low
temperatures at daybreak should range from the mid 50s over the
northern mountains, to the mid 60s in the Lower Susquehanna
Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Patchy valley fog could linger in the deeper valleys of north
central Pa until mid morning. Otherwise, upper level ridging
should support fair and warm conditions Saturday. Given the
progged weak capping inversion, can`t completely rule out a late
day shower developing over the elevated heat source of the
Laurels or perhaps Sullivan County, but will keep POPs below
10pct.

Expect highs to be several degrees above those of today due to
return southwest flow on back side of high pressure moving off
of the east coast. Mid to upper 80s are expected in most
locations by mid afternoon.

After a fair and warm Saturday night, focus will shift to a
deepening upstream trough over the Grt Lks. Falling heights,
combined with heating of an increasingly moist/unstable air
mass, should result in developing convection during the PM
hours. Model 850mb temps near 17C support highs from the mid 80s
over the higher terrain of the Alleghenies, to around 90F in the
Susq Valley.

Weak mid level flow and associated deep layer shear, combined
with only modest ensemble mean capes, suggest a low risk of
organized severe weather late Sunday for most of central Pa.
However, SPC has painted a MRGL risk over northwest Pa, where
models indicate a late day surge of low level moisture and
higher capes, combined with slightly strong mid level winds. NBM
POPs appear reasonable late Sunday, ranging from around 70pct
over Warren County, to around 10pct over Lancaster County.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Latest guidance indicates the fropa and highest POPS (80-90+)
will occur Sunday night into early Monday morning. Depending
on the speed and amplification of the aforementioned nrn stream
upper shortwave, the front could hang up temporarily across the
Lower Susq Valley into Monday afternoon, but otherwise expect a
gradual improving trend Monday over Central and NW PA.

Dry weather with comfortable temps and humidity will be featured
for Monday night through Wed morning. Tue morning should feel
especially refreshing with low temps in the low to mid 50s for
much of the area.

Afterward, a weak and moisture-challenged Sfc front and upper
trough will bring a low probability for a shower or TSRA Wed
afternoon, but areal coverage will be quite limited and not
worth venturing above 10-15 percent this far out.

Sfc high pressure will slide off the eastern Seaboard Thursday
and 500 mb heights build to over 588 DAM Thu and Fri with PWATs
averaging 1-1.3 inches. This will yield mainly dry conditions
and above normal daytime temps and overnight lows.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
For the 00Z TAF package, have a small period in late tonight
for some fog and lower CIGS. Most likely spots to get these
conditions are UNV, if a weak northeast flow can develop;
and IPT, if a thin lower clouds can form late.

Any lower visibilities and CIGS would quickly burn off on
Saturday, given the early sunrise times. Also the airmass
has had another day to dry out.

Outlook...

Sun...Late day and night-time showers and thunderstorms
possible, along with associated restrictions.

Mon...Morning showers and associated restrictions possible.

Tue-Wed...Mainly VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Jurewicz
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Fitzgerald
LONG TERM...Lambert/Evanego/Travis
AVIATION...Martin