Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 040742 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 342 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Very light rain showers affecting central and eastern Pennsylvania will tend to dissipate overnight. A warming trend is expected over the weekend into early next week with little to no rainfall expected. Wetter weather looks probable for the middle of next week, then a cool down for late next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Band of light rain will drift to the southwest across the area before gradually dissipating in the predawn hours. Gusty winds northwest will begin to subside as well, becoming light by Saturday morning. Cloud cover should limit fog formation and help to hold low temps in the mid 30s to low 40s by daybreak on Saturday. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Monring clouds should break for some peaks of sunshine on Saturday. High temps will be a few degrees warmer, ranging from the low 50s north to around 60 degrees in the south-central valleys. Clouds will thicken again Saturday night ahead of an approaching cold front, with a chance of a few rain showers by Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Weak upper ridging will be in place overhead early in the period. This will likely dry up most of what remains of meager moisture moving in with a cold front on Sunday. Have left just a shadow of some PoPs, mainly in the SW, for the daylight hours on Sunday. Dry and cool Mon AM, as sfc high broadens over the area. Temps should be a notch warmer for many locations Mon aftn, but some clouds should return from the SW by the end of the day. Increased PoPs a bit Monday night into Tuesday over most of the area, as Gulf moisture works in from the SW. Dry, confluent, WNW flow aloft may initially keep much of the precip to our south. However, a system moving along the nrn stream may join up with this moisture and give us a better rainfall later Tues into Wed. Dynamics are lacking and phasing of the nrn and srn streams is questionable at this range. Both the operational ECMWF and GFS show a period of disorganized but unsettled weather. After this, the models begin to diverge. The EC brings a cold front quickly across central PA late Thurs. The GFS, on the other hand, tracks a significant area of low pressure up the Ohio Valley and into the eastern Great Lakes Thursday night into Friday, bringing a soaking rain to the area. Both models agree on a significant cool-down for the end of next week, and we could even see some wet snowflakes across northwestern PA next Fri or Sat. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A nearly stationary mid/upr level trough with very weak flow within its apex was leading to an elongated band of moderate rain showers from near KUNV and points south, along and just to the west of the route 322 corridor. last few runs of the HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh) model indicate that this band of showers will be sinking south and diminishing during the mid morning hours. Elsewhere, bkn-ovc mainly MVFR cigs and VFR vsbys will occur through this afternoon. Cigs will remain in the IFR range at KBFD through 15Z today. CIGs slowly lift tonight to mainly VFR. Light northerly wind early today will slowly veer around through the northeast (or become light and variable this afternoon), before becoming east to southeast tonight. .Outlook... Sun...Weak CFROPA with a few PM light rain showers possible. Mon...No significant weather expected. Tue-Wed...Showers likely over the southwest/western 1/3 of the airspace. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl/Evanego NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Evanego SHORT TERM...Evanego LONG TERM...Dangelo/Evanego AVIATION...Lambert is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.