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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCTP 202320
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
720 PM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A large area of high pressure will build into the area and
dominate our weather through at least Monday. A gradual warming
trend will ensue and get us back to near normal temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Scattered cumulus across the northeast corner of the forecast
area will collapse at sunset. Otherwise, expect a clear and cool
evening with a diminishing breeze as high pressure builds in
from the Great Lakes. Conditions favorable for radiational
cooling, including clear skies, light wind and dry air, should
result in most of the region falling below freezing late
tonight. The only exceptions are likely to be the urban areas
and hilltops in the Lower Susq Valley. A freeze warning is in
effect for the southeast part of the forecast area, where the
growing season has officially begun.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
The only mar to Saturday will be a shield of high clouds which
should slip overhead. They may not be thick enough to cause any
forecast trouble, but it is in the back of my mind that they
could knock a deg or two off the maxes. So, I will hold off on
changing the temps at all, even though model guid would nudge us
up a few degs. Less wind and the sun will make it feel like
spring.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure continues through the weekend and into next week.
Mornings will remain chilly, but afternoon temperatures
moderate toward seasonal normals with readings reaching the mid
50s to mid 60s by Monday.

The next weather maker is advertised to begin affecting the
region on Tuesday and continue through midweek. An upper low
will track east under the upper ridge that extends from the
Midwest up into Canada. As the low emerges onto the plains it
takes on a sort of rex-blocky appearance as it crawls eastward,
and latest model runs slow this system down from previous
timing so grids adjusted accordingly.

Models are in good agreement in eventually opening up this low
as it approaches the east coast, reforming the long wave trough
over the eastern US by the end of the week. The good news is
that what looks like it could end up being several days of
unsettled weather, it will be mild enough that the precipitation
type will be rain. Lighter amounts will creep in from the south
on Tuesday, with a period of moderate rain likely Tue night into
early Wed before the system lifts to the NE.

Showery precip could persist into Thu as cyclonic flow returns
aloft with potential for a shortwave to slip through during the
day. Milder pattern continues late week ahead of next trough
approaching for next weekend.

High temperatures are expected to remain slightly colder than
normal throughout the forecast period. But being only a few
degrees below normal will feel relatively nice given the almost
constant much below normal temperatures we have endured so far
this month.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure building into PA this weekend will generally keep VFR
conditions across the region into at least Monday.

With winds becoming light overnight, clear skies, and presence
of some low level moisture from the rain/snow of the last few
days, short range ensembles are hinting at some low stratus and
fog developing across the northern and western mountains after
08z tonight. For now, have hinted at some lower cloud
development in KBFD and KIPT TAFs, with scattered stratus
mentioned, but with no restrictions. Will continue to monitor
trends in models, along with observations, and assess as the
evening progresses whether restrictions are warranted
overnight.

Just high clouds tomorrow with little available in the low
levels to make anything more than few cu.

Outlook...

Sun-Mon...No sig wx expected.

Tue...Rain/low cigs possible PM.

Wed...Rain/low cigs.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Saturday for PAZ026>028-
035-036-049>052-056-057-059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...Jung/Dangelo