Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 170423 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1123 PM EST Sat Nov 16 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A high pressure area to our north will set up shop across northern New England and the Canadian Maritimes. A very light wintry mix is possible Sunday night into Monday over far eastern PA as a moderately strong area of low pressure moves up the coast, but well off-shore. Near normal temperatures and generally dry weather is expected for at least the first half of the upcoming week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Mainly clear skies, very dry air and light wind will allow temperatures to fall steadily tonight. Although a light easterly breeze will likely keep readings from falling as far as they could if surface high were directly over Pa. A blend of latest guidance supports lows ranging from the teens over much of the forecast area and low 20s in the south. Given the exceptionally low late day dewpoints, would not be surprised to see single digits minimums in some of the perennial cold spots across the northern tier. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Model soundings make a good case for skies becoming mostly cloudy Sunday across the eastern half of the state, the result of an increasingly moist southeast flow overrunning dome of cold air at the surface. The cloud cover and cold air damming signature in the surface pressure fields support undercutting NBM guidance. Have gone close to the Superblend numbers with a bit heavier weighting to the cooler NAM MOS. The system deepening off the coast should move very little through the day Sunday, and we will keep the fcst dry for the daytime. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... *Not as cold but below-average temperature bias *Potential for light wintry mix off and on next week Looking to the week ahead, expect temperatures to gradually trend milder but with a below-normal bias. The latest long term temperature outlooks favor below average readings through the end of the month. There remains some variability in the model guidance (low confidence forecast) concerning the precipitation type and occurrence next week. Coastal storm off Virgina Capes deepens and moves north toward Cape Cod. Precipitation on the west side moves into Eastern Central PA. Some freezing rain is possible. Upper level trough or low moves east across PA may trigger some snow showers primarily over the mountain areas north and west. Need to monitor the winter wx risk with potential travel impact to the Monday morning commute.POPS are only slight or chance and any amounts are light. Temperatures warm on Monday making most areas likely changing to rain. Tuesday low POPs due mainly to uncertainty as first storm exits to east. Northern stream disturbance/upper level low or clipper moves across PA Tuesday night into Wednesday bringing more chances for rain and snow showers over the northwest. A brief period of lake effect/upslope precipitation on the back end of this is possible hence low POPs continue. Next bigger system moves across the Great Lakes Thursday and Friday. May start as a mix Thursday morning and then switch over to rain. Thursday night some snow may work in over the higher terrain in the north. Lake effect is possible on the back side of this system by late Friday. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions will continue until at least Sunday night, even for the SE where high clouds come in tonight and lower clouds spread overhead later Sunday. But, the clouds on Sunday should also be VFR. The wind should become a little lighter overnight. Only JST seems like they could stay a little stronger, and could have G15KT thru the overnight. The pressure gradient does tighten slightly over the SE (LNS, MDT) Sunday. That could increase their wind again after a night of light wind. The system off the east coast should remain far enough away to make no impact at all for most of the area. However, a few spits of drizzle/light rain, or even a very light mix could impact eastern PA late Sun night and Monday. However, the track of the storm appears to be moving east with each new model cycle. An upper trough pushing in from the OH valley could touch off a brief SH and some lake effect SH are possible Mon-Tues. .Outlook... Tue...Sct SHSN NW. Wed-Thu...No Sig Wx. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Dangelo/Fitzgerald LONG TERM...Watson/Steinbugl AVIATION...Dangelo/Gartner

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