Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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727 FXUS61 KCTP 180852 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 452 AM EDT Sat Aug 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... An upper-level disturbance will drift over the region today and keep our weather unsettled with scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms. A few of the storms that impact the same locations within a few hour period could result in some localized minor flooding. Slightly cooler conditions and more comfortable humidity will move in for the second half of the upcoming weekend with Monday being the driest day of the next several. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A slow-moving, positive tilt, mid and upper level trough axis moving over far wrn PA early this morning will be accompanied and preceded by a an extensive plume of moderate to high precipitable water air in the 1.6-2.0 inch range. Expect to see the regional radar scopes light up with numerous small clusters of relatively slow moving showers and TSRA that could bring localized moderate to heavy rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1.0 inch within an hour - leading to minor flooding in the form of ponding of water, and perhaps a few small streams hitting or exceeding bankfull in a few locations. PWAT values will average in the 40-45 mm range today into this evening. Afternoon high temps will vary from the L-M 70s across the northern and western mtns. to the low-mid 80s throughout the Susq Valley. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/... After numerous showers and thunderstorms diminish over and to the east of the Susq Valley this evening, the upper trough axis (and one or two weak sfc fronts drifting slowly to the SE across the region) will lead to lingering, mainly scattered showers across most of the CWA. The anticipated abundance of clouds again tonight will help to keep min temps 4-6 deg F above normal - generally in the 65-70F range from the Central Mtns SE across the Lower Susq Valley. Temps will dip into the much more comfortable 55-60F range across the northern mtns of PA. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The better day of weekend still appears to be Sunday, as the area is a bit more stable. However, conditions won`t be pop free, as some showers and a thunderstorm are possible during the afternoon hours. Drier weather on Monday before southerly flow increases with a return to more showers on Tuesday and Wednesday. A real cold frontal passage is expected, likely on Wednesday, which will bring drier air and even some lows into the 50s over a large area for the first time in a long time. Before the frontal passage look for an increase in thunderstorms. The end of the week will be drier with temperatures at or a few degrees below average. Longer term it looks like ridging builds back in for warmer weather by next weekend. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Scattered rain showers dot central PA early this morning with the nightly gradual decline to MVFR and IFR. Lower scattered layers beginning to appear so have inched those sites downward through the next several hours. As has been the case for what seems like the entire summer, conditions will improve through the morning hours with scattered showers and -TSRA developing by afternoon. If you`ve been flying across central PA the past few days, you will find familiarity with today`s forecast and conditions. .Outlook... Sun- Mon...Mainly VFR, although isold convection possible mainly south. Tue-Wed...Restrictions developing with showers and thunderstorms. Improving later Wed. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lambert NEAR TERM...Lambert SHORT TERM...Lambert/La Corte LONG TERM...Ross/Lambert AVIATION...La Corte/Tyburski is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.