Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 170930 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 530 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019 .SYNOPSIS... An extended period of dry, pleasant, and mostly sunny weather is expected to last through the rest of the week. The prolonged dry spell will feature patchy valley fog in the morning, followed by comfortable afternoons and cool nights with light winds and low humidity. Temperatures are forecast to rise above average this weekend with an increasing chance for rain by early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A drier northeast flow associated with high pressure over southern Ontario will drive clouds and spotty showers out of south central PA into the Blue Ridge and Shenandoah Valley this morning. Where skies are clear, expect patchy valley fog to reduce visibility through sunrise before mixing out. Today will begin a multi-day stretch of mostly sunny, dry and pleasant weather in central PA. Did not deviate much from NBM guidance other than to lower dewpoints in the afternoon based on pattern recognition and forecast soundings. Cool and comfortable tonight with lows in the mid 40s to low 50s and fog developing in the valleys. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Dry weather pattern continues through midweek with high pressure remaining firmly in control to the west of Humberto. High temperatures should fade a few degrees Wed-Thu as low level flow turns more to the east. Min temps should also tick lower and may touch the upper 30s in the usually colder spots across the northern tier. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A building upper level ridge with above normal heights signals a rebound in temperatures to above normal levels by this weekend. Consensus medium range deterministic models and ensemble guidance generally agree to keep the weekend rain-free as cold front approaches from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. POPs are maximized on Monday tied to the frontal passage. MaxT departures peak around +10 to +15 degrees Sun-Mon which is well- above normal but not close to record territory. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions prevail across most central Pennsylvania airfields in the wake of the passage of a weak area of low pressure which crossed the region on Monday. That frontal boundary is now draped across the central Virginia. Weak easterly flow may produce some MVFR ceiling restrictions across the mountains of the west and north through 12-14Z. Expect mid low to mid cloud deck to give way to scattered cloud later this morning as sfc high pressure builds across the airspace...with widespread VFR conds. .Outlook... Wed-Sat...AM valley fog possible central/northern PA, otherwise no significant weather expected. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Steinbugl SHORT TERM...Steinbugl LONG TERM...Steinbugl AVIATION...Jung/Gartner

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