-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
211
FXUS61 KCTP 121727
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
127 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Increased PoPs to near 20 pct in the Laurels and near 30 pct
  around the Poconos and Endless Mountains this afternoon as
  popup showers/thundershowers remain possible, but any storms
  should be small and weak.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
-- Changed Discussion --
1) Today will mostly be a dry day, but we still can`t rule out
an isolated shower or stray thundershower in the Laurels and
near the Poconos.

2) Hot and humid pattern set to return for the middle of the
week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.DISCUSSION...
-- Changed Discussion --
KEY MESSAGE 1: Today will mostly be a dry day, but we still
can`t rule out an isolated shower or stray thundershower in the
Laurels and near the Poconos.

With drier air in place today and building high pressure
providing a subsidence inversion above the boundary layer,
today is still on track to be a mainly dry day. However,
isolated showers can not be ruled out particularly over the
Laurel Highlands or near the Poconos, where the higher terrain
will partially offset the stability of the subsidence inversion.

Model soundings show just enough instability in some of the
higher RH members to allow lifted parcels to buoyantly rise
above the -10C environmental isotherm, so a stray thundershower
is possible, but the drier members have much shorter parcel
traces that would yield nothing more than isolated showers. With
highs in the low 80s and dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s,
overall should be a pleasant mid July day.

---------------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Hot and humid pattern set to return for the
middle of the week.

Dry conditions are expected to prevail for the first half of
the week with a strong ridge expected to develop over the middle
of the country. Increasing heat/humidity is forecast across
central Pennsylvania although there remains some uncertainty
with respect to how warm temperatures and/or humidity get across
the region. Current forecast favors the hottest temps returning
Tue to Thu with highs 85-95F and max heat index 90-100F,
potentially rising above 100F on Wednesday. Rain chances
show up Thursday and into the weekend, but PoPs remain low at
this time as the occurrence of rain will depend on the timing
and proximity of fronts and upstream convective systems.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure over southern Ontario will keep a weak easterly
flow over the area into Monday.

Still an isolated shower possible into this evening, but left
out of the 18Z TAF package.

With weak winds and still wet ground, some potential for low
clouds and fog tonight, but left out for now. Models don`t
indicate much potential. Also quite dry aloft as one gets
into northern PA, so mixing this afternoon should help dry
things out some.

Next chance of widespread showers and storms late Thursday
into next weekend. Perhaps a few showers and storms late
Wednesday across the north and west, but this activity more
limited in area and time.

Outlook...

Tue-Thu...Mainly VFR, with areas of late night/AM fog.

Fri...Chance of showers and storms.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Colbert
KEY MESSAGES...Dangelo/Colbert
DISCUSSION...Dangelo/Colbert
AVIATION...Martin