Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 240831 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 431 AM EDT Thu Jun 24 2021 .SYNOPSIS...
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Pleasant and rain-free conditions will prevail in Central PA into the weekend thanks to a large area of high pressure. As the high slides to the east and off the Middle Atlantic Coast, it will create a southerly flow of increasingly moist air. The chance for precipitation will increase this weekend with scattered, mainly afternoon, thunderstorms into early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Vort max overhead is producing a patch of high/mid clouds. This should be dissipating through the next few hours. Patchy fog is visible in the usual spots already. Much like yesterday, it should dissipate quickly. The rest of the day will be uneventful as more high clouds try to approach from the west, but will get blocked by the steadily rising heights. Thw wind will be out of the S/SE at 5-12 MPH, adding a couple of deg C to the 8H temps. Mixing should help maxes stay rather homogeneous across the whole CWA. Everybody except the higher elevations of the Laurels and Endless Mtns should get within a deg or two of 80F. Those ridgetops will stay in the m70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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As the sfc high overhead drifts east and off the coast, expect to see a gradual warming trend through late this week with rising 500mb heights and 850mb temps. There will also be an increase in humidity/dewpoints. Overnight lows may climb more than the aftn maxes over the next few days with dewpoints well into the 60s on Saturday. The anticyclones aloft and at the sfc will bog down, and move little through the weekend. This should fend off all precip until at least Fri night when a small chc of showers starts up in the far NW. The chcs increase only slightly Sat and Sat night, mainly over the west, as the trough out to the west finally digs a bit. There is a hint of some diurnal destabilization on Sat. Thus, isolated showers are possible across the CWA.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The latest ECENS and GEFS both indicate there will be a deepening upper trough over the western Grt Lks/Plains states this weekend into early the following week. A deep southerly flow at the interface of this trough and an upper ridge off of the east coast will likely draw a plume of tropical moisture northward into the region, resulting in an increasing chance of scattered diurnal convection Sun-Wed. ECENS and GEFS 2m temp plumes support warm, humid nights Sun-Wed with ensemble mean 850mb temps around 17C translating to highs from the low 80s along the spine of the Alleghenies to near 90F across the Susq Valley. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Expect VFR conditions to prevail through Friday. High clouds will increase from west to east tonight and persist into the weekend. There is a very slim chance that low clouds/cigs sneak into the southeast airspace late tonight. Low clouds/sub-VFR cigs are more likely in the southeast airspace Friday night into Saturday morning. Showers and thunderstorms crossing Lake Erie late Friday night are likely to reach the NW airspace into early Saturday morning. Outlook... Sat-Mon...Scattered P.M. thunderstorms likely with localized restrictions. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo NEAR TERM...Dangelo SHORT TERM...Dangelo LONG TERM...Gutierrez/Wagner AVIATION...Steinbugl

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