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000
FXUS61 KCTP 170930
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
530 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
An extended period of dry, pleasant, and mostly sunny weather is
expected to last through the rest of the week. The prolonged dry
spell will feature patchy valley fog in the morning, followed by
comfortable afternoons and cool nights with light winds and low
humidity. Temperatures are forecast to rise above average this
weekend with an increasing chance for rain by early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A drier northeast flow associated with high pressure over
southern Ontario will drive clouds and spotty showers out of
south central PA into the Blue Ridge and Shenandoah Valley this
morning. Where skies are clear, expect patchy valley fog to
reduce visibility through sunrise before mixing out. Today will
begin a multi-day stretch of mostly sunny, dry and pleasant
weather in central PA. Did not deviate much from NBM guidance
other than to lower dewpoints in the afternoon based on pattern
recognition and forecast soundings. Cool and comfortable tonight
with lows in the mid 40s to low 50s and fog developing in the
valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Dry weather pattern continues through midweek with high
pressure remaining firmly in control to the west of Humberto.
High temperatures should fade a few degrees Wed-Thu as low
level flow turns more to the east. Min temps should also tick
lower and may touch the upper 30s in the usually colder spots
across the northern tier.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A building upper level ridge with above normal heights signals
a rebound in temperatures to above normal levels by this
weekend. Consensus medium range deterministic models and
ensemble guidance generally agree to keep the weekend rain-free
as cold front approaches from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. POPs
are maximized on Monday tied to the frontal passage. MaxT
departures peak around +10 to +15 degrees Sun-Mon which is well-
above normal but not close to record territory.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions prevail across most central Pennsylvania
airfields in the wake of the passage of a weak area of low
pressure which crossed the region on Monday. That frontal
boundary is now draped across the central Virginia.

Weak easterly flow may produce some MVFR ceiling restrictions
across the mountains of the west and north through 12-14Z.

Expect mid low to mid cloud deck to give way to scattered cloud
later this morning as sfc high pressure builds across the
airspace...with widespread VFR conds.

.Outlook...

Wed-Sat...AM valley fog possible central/northern PA, otherwise
no significant weather expected.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Jung/Gartner