Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000 FXUS61 KCTP 250041 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 841 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A large area of high pressure will keep rain-free weather over the region for most of the weekend. Summer-time heat and humidity will also be building with time. A progressive cold front is expected to provide a threat for showers or thunderstorms from late Sunday into early Monday. Drier and somewhat cooler weather should follow for later Monday and Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Scattered cumulus should dissipate with the loss of heating this evening. The arrival of ridging at the surface and aloft should ensure fair weather overnight. However, a calm wind and mainly clear skies is likely to promote patchy late night valley fog, as the latest SREF and NAMNest suggest. Low temperatures at daybreak should range from the mid 50s over the northern mountains, to the mid 60s in the Lower Susquehanna Valley. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Patchy valley fog could linger in the deeper valleys of north central Pa until mid morning. Otherwise, upper level ridging should support fair and warm conditions Saturday. Given the progged weak capping inversion, can`t completely rule out a late day shower developing over the elevated heat source of the Laurels or perhaps Sullivan County, but will keep POPs below 10pct. Expect highs to be several degrees above those of today due to return southwest flow on back side of high pressure moving off of the east coast. Mid to upper 80s are expected in most locations by mid afternoon. After a fair and warm Saturday night, focus will shift to a deepening upstream trough over the Grt Lks. Falling heights, combined with heating of an increasingly moist/unstable air mass, should result in developing convection during the PM hours. Model 850mb temps near 17C support highs from the mid 80s over the higher terrain of the Alleghenies, to around 90F in the Susq Valley. Weak mid level flow and associated deep layer shear, combined with only modest ensemble mean capes, suggest a low risk of organized severe weather late Sunday for most of central Pa. However, SPC has painted a MRGL risk over northwest Pa, where models indicate a late day surge of low level moisture and higher capes, combined with slightly strong mid level winds. NBM POPs appear reasonable late Sunday, ranging from around 70pct over Warren County, to around 10pct over Lancaster County.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Latest guidance indicates the fropa and highest POPS (80-90+) will occur Sunday night into early Monday morning. Depending on the speed and amplification of the aforementioned nrn stream upper shortwave, the front could hang up temporarily across the Lower Susq Valley into Monday afternoon, but otherwise expect a gradual improving trend Monday over Central and NW PA. Dry weather with comfortable temps and humidity will be featured for Monday night through Wed morning. Tue morning should feel especially refreshing with low temps in the low to mid 50s for much of the area. Afterward, a weak and moisture-challenged Sfc front and upper trough will bring a low probability for a shower or TSRA Wed afternoon, but areal coverage will be quite limited and not worth venturing above 10-15 percent this far out. Sfc high pressure will slide off the eastern Seaboard Thursday and 500 mb heights build to over 588 DAM Thu and Fri with PWATs averaging 1-1.3 inches. This will yield mainly dry conditions and above normal daytime temps and overnight lows.
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&& .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... For the 00Z TAF package, have a small period in late tonight for some fog and lower CIGS. Most likely spots to get these conditions are UNV, if a weak northeast flow can develop; and IPT, if a thin lower clouds can form late. Any lower visibilities and CIGS would quickly burn off on Saturday, given the early sunrise times. Also the airmass has had another day to dry out. Outlook... Sun...Late day and night-time showers and thunderstorms possible, along with associated restrictions. Mon...Morning showers and associated restrictions possible. Tue-Wed...Mainly VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Jurewicz NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Lambert/Fitzgerald LONG TERM...Lambert/Evanego/Travis AVIATION...Martin

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