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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCTP 240831
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
431 AM EDT Thu Jun 24 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
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Pleasant and rain-free conditions will prevail in Central PA
into the weekend thanks to a large area of high pressure. As
the high slides to the east and off the Middle Atlantic Coast,
it will create a southerly flow of increasingly moist air. The
chance for precipitation will increase this weekend with
scattered, mainly afternoon, thunderstorms into early next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Vort max overhead is producing a patch of high/mid clouds. This
should be dissipating through the next few hours. Patchy fog is
visible in the usual spots already. Much like yesterday, it
should dissipate quickly.

The rest of the day will be uneventful as more high clouds try
to approach from the west, but will get blocked by the steadily
rising heights. Thw wind will be out of the S/SE at 5-12 MPH,
adding a couple of deg C to the 8H temps. Mixing should help
maxes stay rather homogeneous across the whole CWA. Everybody
except the higher elevations of the Laurels and Endless Mtns
should get within a deg or two of 80F. Those ridgetops will stay
in the m70s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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As the sfc high overhead drifts east and off the coast, expect
to see a gradual warming trend through late this week with
rising 500mb heights and 850mb temps. There will also be an
increase in humidity/dewpoints. Overnight lows may climb more
than the aftn maxes over the next few days with dewpoints well
into the 60s on Saturday.

The anticyclones aloft and at the sfc will bog down, and move
little through the weekend. This should fend off all precip
until at least Fri night when a small chc of showers starts up
in the far NW. The chcs increase only slightly Sat and Sat
night, mainly over the west, as the trough out to the west
finally digs a bit. There is a hint of some diurnal
destabilization on Sat. Thus, isolated showers are possible
across the CWA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The latest ECENS and GEFS both indicate there will be a
deepening upper trough over the western Grt Lks/Plains states
this weekend into early the following week. A deep southerly
flow at the interface of this trough and an upper ridge off of
the east coast will likely draw a plume of tropical moisture
northward into the region, resulting in an increasing chance of
scattered diurnal convection Sun-Wed.

ECENS and GEFS 2m temp plumes support warm, humid nights Sun-Wed
with ensemble mean 850mb temps around 17C translating to highs
from the low 80s along the spine of the Alleghenies to near 90F
across the Susq Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Expect VFR conditions to prevail through Friday. High clouds
will increase from west to east tonight and persist into the
weekend. There is a very slim chance that low clouds/cigs sneak
into the southeast airspace late tonight. Low clouds/sub-VFR
cigs are more likely in the southeast airspace Friday night
into Saturday morning. Showers and thunderstorms crossing Lake
Erie late Friday night are likely to reach the NW airspace into
early Saturday morning.

Outlook...

Sat-Mon...Scattered P.M. thunderstorms likely with localized
restrictions.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Gutierrez/Wagner
AVIATION...Steinbugl