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000
FXUS61 KCTP 040742
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
342 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Very light rain showers affecting central and eastern
Pennsylvania will tend to dissipate overnight. A warming trend
is expected over the weekend into early next week with little to
no rainfall expected. Wetter weather looks probable for the
middle of next week, then a cool down for late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Band of light rain will drift to the southwest across the area
before gradually dissipating in the predawn hours. Gusty winds
northwest will begin to subside as well, becoming light by
Saturday morning. Cloud cover should limit fog formation and
help to hold low temps in the mid 30s to low 40s by daybreak on
Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Monring clouds should break for some peaks of sunshine on
Saturday. High temps will be a few degrees warmer, ranging from
the low 50s north to around 60 degrees in the south-central
valleys.

Clouds will thicken again Saturday night ahead of an
approaching cold front, with a chance of a few rain showers by
Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Weak upper ridging will be in place overhead early in the
period. This will likely dry up most of what remains of meager
moisture moving in with a cold front on Sunday. Have left just a
shadow of some PoPs, mainly in the SW, for the daylight hours
on Sunday.

Dry and cool Mon AM, as sfc high broadens over the area. Temps
should be a notch warmer for many locations Mon aftn, but some
clouds should return from the SW by the end of the day.

Increased PoPs a bit Monday night into Tuesday over most of the
area, as Gulf moisture works in from the SW. Dry, confluent,
WNW flow aloft may initially keep much of the precip to our
south. However, a system moving along the nrn stream may join up
with this moisture and give us a better rainfall later Tues
into Wed. Dynamics are lacking and phasing of the nrn and srn
streams is questionable at this range. Both the operational
ECMWF and GFS show a period of disorganized but unsettled
weather.

After this, the models begin to diverge. The EC brings a cold
front quickly across central PA late Thurs. The GFS, on the
other hand, tracks a significant area of low pressure up the
Ohio Valley and into the eastern Great Lakes Thursday night
into Friday, bringing a soaking rain to the area.

Both models agree on a significant cool-down for the end of
next week, and we could even see some wet snowflakes across
northwestern PA next Fri or Sat.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A nearly stationary mid/upr level trough with very weak flow
within its apex was leading to an elongated band of moderate
rain showers from near KUNV and points south, along and just to
the west of the route 322 corridor.

last few runs of the HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh) model
indicate that this band of showers will be sinking south and
diminishing during the mid morning hours. Elsewhere, bkn-ovc
mainly MVFR cigs and VFR vsbys will occur through this
afternoon. Cigs will remain in the IFR range at KBFD through 15Z
today.

CIGs slowly lift tonight to mainly VFR.

Light northerly wind early today will slowly veer around through
the northeast (or become light and variable this afternoon),
before becoming east to southeast tonight.

.Outlook...

Sun...Weak CFROPA with a few PM light rain showers possible.

Mon...No significant weather expected.

Tue-Wed...Showers likely over the southwest/western 1/3 of the
airspace.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl/Evanego
NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Evanego
SHORT TERM...Evanego
LONG TERM...Dangelo/Evanego
AVIATION...Lambert