653
FXUS64 KBMX 111110
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
610 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT SAT MAY 11 2024

Quiet weather conditions expected through the weekend across
Central Alabama, with sunny skies and less humidity. Surface high
pressure will build into the area today, with northwesterly flow
in the low and mid levels. Highs will be in the mid 70s to lower
80s. With light winds and partly cloudy skies, temperatures will
fall into the 50s again tonight. As weak upper level ridging
arrives from the west tomorrow, winds aloft become westerly with
an increase in high clouds. Highs will be a couple of degrees
warmer, in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

14

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT SAT MAY 11 2024

An upper-level low is progged to advance east from the Central and
Southern Plains toward the Lower Mississippi Valley on Monday. This
will coincide with low-level moisture advection and isentropic
ascent across the Deep South. As such, PoPs increase with the
expectation of widespread rain showers and embedded thunderstorms
throughout the day. The progression of the disturbance aloft will be
slow once in the region, so chances for showers/storms will linger
into Tuesday. Most thunderstorm activity is expected across our
south where best instability is forecast, though additional embedded
thunderstorms will be possible across all of Central Alabama. We`ll
need to monitor for strong/severe thunderstorms on Tuesday as
there`s some opportunity for instability/shear overlap coincident
with the trough axis moving across the Tennessee Valley. The trough
axis will pass to our east Tuesday night with a subsequent dry slot,
ending rain chances.

Mid to late next week looks fairly reasonable with temperatures a
few degrees within normal values. Flow aloft is progged to be in a
complex split flow configuration with several embedded perturbations
across the CONUS. There`s no obvious signal for trouble for our
area, through rain chances are back on the increase at the end of
the period owing to a southern stream disturbance moving across the
Gulf Coast.

40/Sizemore

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 AM CDT SAT MAY 11 2024

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period as high
pressure builds into the area. High clouds continue to move across
the southern counties this morning. Otherwise, clear skies are
expected. Light winds to start the period will increase from the
northwest at 7-10kts through the day. Winds diminish this
evening.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain free conditions continue through the weekend, as drier air
remains over the area. Minimum RH values will range from 35 to 45
percent this afternoon, with northerly 20ft winds becoming
northwesterly at 6-8mph. Tonight, max RH values will be above 85
percent. Light and variable 20ft winds are expected Sunday as high
pressure moves across the area. Min RH values Sunday afternoon
will range from 30 to 45 percent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     77  52  80  57 /   0   0   0  10
Anniston    77  54  80  59 /   0   0   0  10
Birmingham  78  59  82  62 /   0   0   0  20
Tuscaloosa  80  59  83  63 /   0   0   0  30
Calera      78  58  81  62 /   0   0   0  20
Auburn      77  59  80  63 /   0   0   0  10
Montgomery  79  58  81  63 /   0   0   0  20
Troy        79  58  81  62 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....40
AVIATION...14