Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 240453
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1253 AM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure crosses the Gulf of Maine tonight, then exits
across the Maritimes Sunday. High pressure crosses the region
Monday through Tuesday. A warm front crosses the region
Wednesday. Low pressure will approach later Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1253 AM Update: The storm continues on track with the previous
forecast as the low slowly turns NE and begins to track along
the coast towards the Canadian Maritimes. Current KCBW radar
correlation coefficient shows the rain/snow line just making it
into southern Aroostook county and beginning to shift east as
the trough axis begins to shift. Reports of mainly sleet have
been coming in from around the Bangor area and freezing rain to
the south and east, with rain that is heavy at times along the
immediate coast. Further north, snowfall rates have approached 2
inches per hour across Ashland, Presque Isle, and even into
parts of Caribou. Even further north and towards the St. John
Valley, precip rates drop drastically, with much less snow
expected through the end of the storm. Winds will begin to
increase through the second half of the night, with gusts
approaching 30 mph by daybreak. This increase in winds will
likely lead to areas of blowing snow, especially across the
north where snow character has been fluffy in nature. Snow and
ice totals were adjusted slightly with this forecast based on
current observations and trends.

Prev discussion:
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM CONTINUES TONIGHT

A low pressure system will continue to impact Northern and
Eastern Maine late this afternoon and tonight. This system
continues to have a tropical connection, which is pulling in
plenty of moisture into the region. There continue to be
multiple significant hazards with this system.

At this time, precipitation is falling as snow over most of the
area, with some places closer to the coast mixing with sleet,
freezing rain or rain. Increasing warm air aloft will allow this
line to move northwest this evening. Current thinking is that
snow will mix with sleet and freezing rain at least briefly up
to a line from about Dover-Foxcroft to just south of Houlton.
Areas to the northwest will remain all snow through this system.

At the surface, a coastal front will set up from around Coastal
Hancock County to Central Washington County. To the southeast of
this line, southeasterly surface winds will bring in warmer air.
This will result in precipitation changing to plain rain. High-
resolution guidance is indicating the potential for heavy
rainfall, thus kept the Flood Watch in effect for Coastal
Downeast. Southeasterly winds could gust up to 40 mph tonight at
the coast.

To the northwest of the front, northeasterly surface
winds will keep cold air in place at the surface. This will
allow for a wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain for the
Bangor region and much of Interior Downeast. Heavy precipitation
rates will not allow for efficient ice accretion, but up to
one-third of an inch of ice could accumulate in a narrow
corridor. Thus, kept the Winter Storm Warnings in place for
Bangor and Interior Downeast. Colder air behind the system will
allow precipitation to change back to snow before ending late
tonight. Any leftover standing water will refreeze before
daybreak Sunday.

Snow will continue to fall heavy at times across northern areas
through much of tonight. Snow rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour
will be common, perhaps slightly higher at times. Most of the
North will receive at least one foot of snow, and some locations
could see upwards of two feet of snowfall. Some brief mix with
sleet could cut down on totals close to a Dover-Foxcroft to
Houlton line. Areas near the Quebec border may also see slightly
less snowfall due to lower QPF. Snow will finally taper off
just before sunrise Sunday. However, patchy blowing snow will
become a concern as gusty northwesterly winds develop behind the
system.

Dry weather will prevail for Sunday with high pressure building
in. However, the pressure gradient between the departing low
and the incoming high will make for gusty northwest winds. Wind
gusts could reach 25-35 mph at times. High temperatures on
Sunday will be in the 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure centered north of Maine ridges across the region
Sunday night through Monday with mostly clear skies. High pressure
drifts northeast from the Gulf of Saint Lawrence Monday night while
still ridging south across the forecast area. At the same time, an
inverted trof will extend northward toward Nova Scotia from low
pressure located well to the south. Expect mostly clear skies north,
mostly clear/partly cloudy Downeast, Monday night. Moisture
expands northward along the inverted trof Tuesday with
increasing clouds across the forecast area. Could also have a
slight chance of rain late Downeast. Near normal, to slightly
below normal, level temperatures are expected Monday. Near
normal, to slightly above normal, level temperatures are
expected Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Expect a chance of snow across northern areas Tuesday night, with
the chance of a rain/snow mix Downeast. Moisture persists in the
vicinity of the inverted trof Wednesday while another system
approaches from the west. Precipitation will persist Wednesday,
though amounts are uncertain. Early snow will mix with, or change
to, rain across northern areas during the afternoon. Across Downeast
areas an early snow/rain mix will transition to rain. Mostly
rain is expected across the entire region Wednesday night. Low
pressure intensifies across the Mid-Atlantic region Thursday
while moisture expands northward along an offshore frontal
boundary. Precipitation should expand across the region
Thursday. Expect most of the precipitation Thursday in the form
of rain. A snow/rain mix could develop again across northern
areas Thursday night. The intensifying low lifts toward Nova
Scotia along the offshore frontal boundary Friday. An early
snow/rain mix is possible again early Friday, though again
expect most of the precipitation in the form of rain.
Uncertainty with the low track increases Saturday. Precipitation
should persist Saturday. Again, expect an early snow/rain mix
will transition to rain. Slightly above normal level
temperatures are expected Wednesday. Above normal level
temperatures are expected Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR at all terminals through tonight. Moderate
to heavy snow expected at all Aroostook terminals overnight,
and a mix of fzra, snow, sleet and rain at Downeast terminals.
BHB is likely to be mostly heavy rain which will switch briefly
to frozen precip right at the end of the storm. Brief LLWS
possible across all Downeast terminals through the early morning
hours just prior to 12z. Rapid improvement to VFR from SW to NE
this morning as precip exits the area. Winds becoming NW 10 to
20 kts with gusts 25 to 30 kts early, then diminishing through
the afternoon. VFR conditions will continue through the night
tonight, while winds become light and variable in the north and
northerly around 5 kts Downeast.

SHORT TERM:
Sunday night...VFR. North/northwest winds 5 to 10 knots.

Monday through Tuesday...VFR. North/northeast winds around 10 knots.

Tuesday night...VFR/MVFR. A chance of snow north, with a chance
of rain and snow Downeast. East/northeast winds 5 to 10 knots.

Wednesday...VFR/MVFR, occasional IFR. A chance of snow and
rain. East/northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming variable.

Wednesday night...MVFR/IFR. Rain likely. Variable winds 5 to 10
knots.

Thursday...VFR/MVFR, then MVFR/IFR. A chance of rain. Variable
winds 5 to 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A Gale Warning remains in place for all waters
tonight and through Sunday. SE winds 20-30 kts gusting to 40
kts this evening. A brief lull late tonight, before winds shift
to the N-NW 20-30 kts, with gusts up to 45 kts. These gusts will
continue into Sunday. In addition, rain will fall over the
waters for much of tonight, before ending by sunrise Sunday.
Seas 4 to 7 feet on the intra-coastal waters, and 8-11 feet on
the outer waters tonight and Sunday.

SHORT TERM: A Gale Warning is in effect for all the waters
Sunday night through Monday. Gale conditions should then
persist Monday night through Tuesday. A slight chance of rain
Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Storm Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for
     MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-031-032.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for
     MEZ029-030.
     Flood Watch until 5 AM EDT early this morning for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT Monday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$


Near Term...AStrauser/Clark
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...AStrauser/Clark/Norcross
Marine...AStrauser/Clark/Norcross


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