054
FXUS61 KCAR 250031
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
831 PM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the region tonight. High pressure will
build across the region Wednesday into Friday. Low pressure will
cross the region Saturday then exit across the Maritimes
Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
8 PM Update: Showers and storms that developed along the sea
breeze this afternoon have since dissipated, leaving the
forecast area dry tonight as all other convection remains to the
southwest. Temperatures and dewpoints remain elevated, and minor
adjustments were made to low temperatures tonight based on
current observations and trends. Additionally, the extreme heat
warnings and heat advisories were allowed to expire. Otherwise,
the previous forecast remains on track.

Previous Discussion:
This evening, Maine stays between the warm front and the cold
front in a surface low pressure system to our northwest. Mid-
level high pressure to our south has been funneling warm air
into the region all day, leading to some high temperatures in
the 90s. Two weak surface troughs developed through the center
of the state, providing some weak lifting throughout the day.
Eastern most one is currently through Downeast, and the western
most one comes in from Quebec. Heat indexes in the north and
the immediate coast in the mid-to-upper 90s, and in inland and
central Maine potentially up to 105. Excessive heat warnings and
advisory are currently in effect. Do your best to avoid
strenuous outdoor activities, and ensure to stay hydrated!

There is a potential for some convection/thunderstorms during
the evening, mainly from any lift these surface troughs provide.
There is currently some storms developing along these troughs
Downeast and in Canada, and these storms have been developing
fast when they get lifted into the favorable environment. There
is a strong surface cap that is the primary reason for
convection inhibition. That being said, anything that could lift
up in the atmosphere could be in a very convectively favorable
environment. Favorable DCAPE and dry air aloft could cause some
gusty winds coming down to the surface if convection occurs.
Southwesterly winds with some heavier gusts into the evening.

Tonight, cold front passes through, bringing some cooler
temperatures and relief from the heat today. Overnight low
temperatures in the 70s Downeast, and in the 50s/60s in the
north. Crown of Maine may be a little cooler due to some
overnight clearing. During the day tomorrow, ridging builds in
from the northwest, leading to dry and clear conditions. High
temperatures in the 70s in the north, and mid-80s Downeast. Dew
points do drop overnight, however, so not expecting as muggy
conditions as today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will remain ridged across the region Wednesday night
through Thursday night. Expect mostly clear skies Wednesday night.
Mostly clear/partly cloudy Thursday through Thursday night.
High pressure begins to exit across the Maritimes Friday, while
low pressure across the Great Lakes begins to draw a warm front
toward the region. Expect increasing clouds Friday. Could also
have a slight chance of showers late across western areas.
Expect near normal, to slightly below normal, level temperatures
Thursday/Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure begins to approach Friday night with increasing shower
chances or a steadier rain developing. Low pressure should cross the
region Saturday with showers or a steadier rain, then exit
Saturday night with showers. Generally expect partly sunny
skies Sunday, though could also still have the slight
chance/chance of a shower. A cold front could begin to cross the
region Monday into Tuesday with low pressure possibly
developing along the front. However, uncertainty with the timing
of the front still exists. Expect a chance of showers, slight
chance of thunderstorms, Monday/Tuesday. Expect below normal
level temperatures Saturday. Near normal, to slightly below
normal, level temperatures Sunday. Slightly above normal level
temperatures Monday/Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
VFR conditions continues through tonight and the day on
Wednesday. Light W winds overnight will shift NW behind a cold
front beginning early Wednesday morning, with the front
traveling from north to south. Ahead of the front, northern
terminals from KHUL north could see brief LLWS around 30 kts
this evening. NW winds on Wednesday will increase 5 to 10 kts.
Northern terminals could gust to 20 kts Wednesday afternoon.

SHORT TERM:

Wednesday night through Friday. VFR. North/northwest winds 5 to 10
knots Wednesday night. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots Thursday through
Friday.

Friday night..VFR early. MVFR/IFR late with a chance of showers or
rain. South/southeast winds 5 to 10 knots.

Saturday...MVFR/IFR with a chance of showers or rain.
South/southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots.

Saturday night...VFR/MVFR, occasional IFR. A chance of showers.
Southeast/east winds 5 to 10 knots.

Sunday...Occasional MVFR early. Otherwise, VFR. A chance of
showers. Southeast/east winds 5 to 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas below Small Craft Advisory criteria
tonight into tomorrow. Seas stay at or below 3 ft over the outer
waters, and at or below 2ft for the inner waters. Slight chance
for some scattered showers/thunderstorms over the outer waters
tonight. Winds from the SW at 10-15kt, with gusts up to 20kt
possible, and shift to the NW by tomorrow.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels
Wednesday night through Friday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Near record highs occurred today, June 24, with a couple
records broken:

Site           High Temp      Prev Record

Caribou           90          93 (1995)
Houlton           92          92 (1995)
Millinocket       94          97 (1912)
Bangor            98          93 (1995)

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...AStrauser/Brennan
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...AStrauser/Brennan/Norcross
Marine...AStrauser/Brennan/Norcross
Climate...AStrauser/Brennan