084
FXUS62 KKEY 130228
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1028 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 912 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

Currently - A sloppy surface high stretches from Mid-Atlantic
states to north of the eastern Bahamas. This along with day time
heating has resulted in a weak pressure field across the Keys area
and brought about light mostly east to southeasterly breezes.
Meanwhile, zonal flow is in place through the mid and upper levels
while a west to east lower level ridge stretches across our
broader area. This evenings sounding indicated a good amount of
moisture with precipitable water around 1.7 inches and surface dew
points in the mid 70s. However, a couple of important subsidence
inversion and associated drier layers, the lowest of which is
based around 950 mb, has squashed shower development across the
broader area. There has even been a dearth of stratocumulus.

Short Term Update - Winds will firm up slightly out of the east
to southeast through the overnight period. This will be due the
dissipating effects of day time heating over Florida and the
previously mentioned surface high strengthening slightly. No
change is expected in the overall synoptic makeup driving our
weather. Stable conditions, thanks to the inversions, should
prevail despite some suggestion by guidance that lower level lift
and boundary layer moisture may increase slightly. The warm season
is definitely here with overnight lows to be near 80 despite the
lackluster flow. Dew points will remain in the mid 70s, for now.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 912 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

A weak ridge stretching southeastward from the eastern United
States, along with dissipating day time heating, will result in
winds becoming more uniformly east to southeast and strengthening
slightly. With that said, winds will remain light to gentle and
virtually no changes made in the evening marine update.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 912 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals through the
overnight period. Surface winds will be light and broadly easterly
to start, but strengthen slightly out of the east to southeast
through the night.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...11
Aviation/Nowcasts....11
Data Acquisition.....JAM

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