Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
000
FXUS64 KLZK 200509 AAA
AFDLZK
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1209 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024
Surface cold front has pushed thru the region, and notably cooler
and drier air was filtering into the region. Overnight lows tonight
will bottom out in the 40`s across the north and in the western
mountains, and generally in the lower 50`s elsewhere.
The front will stall south of the forecast area, while another
shortwave ripples across the area. With abundant moisture in place,
additional showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible tomorrow.
The weather should start to improve on Sunday as high pressure
builds into the area in earnest.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY/TUESDAY:
An upper lvl trof will be in the process of exiting the region over
the Ohio River Valley region of the CONUS with overall slight
ridging in place before the next trof approaches the state on
Tuesday. In tandem with these upper lvl features, the sfc features
of a sfc high pressure center moving into the region and the next
cold front on the doorstep to Arkansas from the northwest will keep
quiet and dry weather across most of the state to begin the work-
week through mid-week with the outside possibility of some showers
and thunderstorms across northern Arkansas on Tuesday due to the
pending cold front arrival to the Natural State from the northwest.
Temperatures over this period begin with lows below normal (a
portion of northern Arkansas may experience temperatures in the
upper 30s on Sunday night/Monday morning) with a slight increase
each day into the 40s/50s across the state near normal. Likewise,
high temperatures will on Monday will begin below normal in the
60s/70s on Monday afternoon, but rebound quickly for the remainder
of the period into the 70s across the state near normal for this
time of the year.
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY/NEXT FRIDAY:
An unsettled weather pattern begins with copious chances for showers
and thunderstorms. An upper lvl positively tilted trof axis
approaches the state, then overall ridging will slide eastward to
include northwesterly flow over Arkansas. At the sfc, a cold front
that will move through the state on Tuesday night will begin to
meander back across the ARK-LA-TEX region as a stationary front
keeping increased POP chances elevated, especially across western
Arkansas on Wednesday into Thursday. By next Friday, the stationary
boundary will lift northeastward as a warm front across the entire
state and POP chances along with the opportunity for thunderstorm
activity will increase. Temperatures over this three day period will
trend near normal to slightly above normal with lows in the 50s/60s
statewide transitioning into afternoon high temperatures that will
be in the 70s/80s, expect a gradual increase each day with respect
to both low and high temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024
MVFR CIGs are expected to continue through the TAF period at all
but Nrn terminals. Nrn sites should remain VFR. On Sat, SHRA/RA
will overspread roughly the Srn half of AR with MVFR VIS within
precipitation as well as continued MVFR CIGs. Some isolated TSRA
will be possible over far Srn sites. Precipitation is expected to
extend beyond the TAF period as an upper level system passes W to
E across the region. Winds on Sat will be E/NE between 10-20 kts.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 64 46 66 42 / 30 20 0 0
Camden AR 56 46 64 40 / 90 80 20 0
Harrison AR 63 41 63 39 / 20 10 0 0
Hot Springs AR 57 47 66 42 / 80 60 10 0
Little Rock AR 62 50 67 45 / 70 50 10 0
Monticello AR 58 49 63 44 / 90 90 20 0
Mount Ida AR 58 45 66 40 / 80 60 0 0
Mountain Home AR 66 42 65 39 / 20 10 0 0
Newport AR 64 48 64 42 / 30 20 10 0
Pine Bluff AR 58 49 64 43 / 80 70 10 0
Russellville AR 62 46 68 42 / 50 30 0 0
Searcy AR 62 46 66 40 / 50 30 0 0
Stuttgart AR 59 50 63 44 / 70 50 10 0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...67