018
FXUS64 KOUN 041136
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
636 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

A cold front has moved into far NW parts of the fa and will continue
to move across parts of the area today. Showers and thunderstorms
will continue to develop and move across the area through the
morning hours with the highest chances near/behind the front. Gusty
winds and maybe some small hail will be possible with the stronger
storms. Locally heavy rain will also be possible.

Additional showers/storms could develop in the area later this
afternoon near any lingering boundaries. Meanwhile, showers/storms
are also expected to develop SW of the fa this afternoon then spread
NE into the area this evening. Storm development will continue
overnight into Sunday as a shortwave moves across the southern
Plains. Some severe storms will be possible late this afternoon and
continue through the overnight hours with large hail and damaging
winds possible but the biggest concern tonight will likely shift to
flooding. Heavy rain is expected this evening into Sunday,
especially across the southern half or so of the fa. Will continue
with the current Flood Watch but flooding will be of particular
concern in those areas that have already received heavy rainfall
over the last week.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Showers/storms are expected to continue into Sunday as the shortwave
continues to move across the southern Plains with heavy
rain/flooding the primary concern although some of the storms could
also produce some strong winds and hail. Rain chances will gradually
decrease from west to east Sunday.

Monday: It still looks like there could be a significant severe
weather event in the area on Monday. Models show a negatively tilted
trough approaching the region Monday. At the sfc, a dryline is
expected to move into western parts of the fa by late afternoon.
Ahead of the dryline, a moist, unstable airmass is expected to be in
place. Storms are expected to develop near the dryline late Monday
afternoon/evening. The highest chance for storm development will be
in northern parts of the fa closer to the upper support with storm
coverage expected to decrease the farther south you go. Severe
storms are expected with large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes
all possible.

Tuesday and Wednesday: Moisture will linger in SE parts of the fa.
Heating and any disturbances in the flow could lead to storm
development late afternoon/evening on both days in southeast parts
of the fa but chances are currently low.

A frontal boundary is expected to move across the area middle/late
next week which will shunt the better moisture south of the fa that
could lead to at least a brief break in the active weather pattern
before more widespread rain chances potentially return next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Stratus deck behind a cold front will be increasing across western
Oklahoma as well as a second stratus deck in the warm sector
lifting up from north Texas will both result in terminals reducing
to MVFR conditions between 12-18Z and continue through much of the
rest of this forecast period. Cold front nearly along the I-44
corridor will continue its push shifting surface winds out of the
north behind the front with wind speeds around 10-15 kts with
gusts up to 20 kts. Expecting isolated thunderstorms behind the
cold front which could affect our terminals through 18Z with a
second round coming up from western Texas after 00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  74  58  72  62 /  70  80  80  20
Hobart OK         72  57  74  61 /  60  90  60  20
Wichita Falls TX  78  62  76  64 /  50  90  60  10
Gage OK           71  50  74  57 /  20  50  40  20
Ponca City OK     71  54  69  59 / 100  70  70  20
Durant OK         80  65  76  64 /  50  80  90  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for OKZ006>008-011>013-
     018>020-023>048-050>052.

TX...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...68