Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 231124

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
624 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Updated for 12Z Aviation Discussion.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 352 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018/


Currently...A weak mid level shortwave is moving through the
region producing some light showers ahead of a developing warm
front. Temps range from the mid 40s to lowers 50s with light

Today...The shortwave will move through before sunrise and most
of the shower activity will lift out as the warm front begins to
move northeast across the area. By this afternoon the warm front
should be situated from Northeast Arkansas to Northeast
Mississippi. Temps will climb toward the 70 degree mark south of
the front with temps remaining in the 50s and 60s north of the
front where the better chances for showers will remain.

Tonight...The warm front will become stationary near the KY/MO
borders with the best chances for rain along the front and north.
Lows will be in the 50s.

Weekend...Surface low pressure will track southeast and weaken
along the warm front on Saturday with a cold front dropping south
during the afternoon and evening. Upper support is well north and
weak. This system does not look like a big rain producer with QPF
amounts of less than a quarter inch. Some instability works into
the area ahead of the cold front on Saturday so a few
thunderstorms are possible...mainly Saturday afternoon and
evening along the cold front. Temps will warm to 70F or higher
across much of the area. Much cooler on Sunday behind the cold
front with highs in the 50s and 60s. Rain chances return by Sunday
afternoon and night as weak upper level disturbances move into
the area.

Monday and Tuesday...Upper ridge builds over the SE US and the front
moves back north as a warm front with temps climbing back above
normal. Higher pops with the warm front on Monday...especially
across northern sections. By Tuesday much of the area is under the
influence of the upper ridge with most of the rain located NW of
the Mid-South along an approaching cold front. This rain will
start moving into Northeast Arkansas by the end of the day.

Wednesday and Thursday...A slow moving cold front will impact the
region. Moist SW flow aloft ahead of an upper low ejecting out of
the SW US will result in PW values approaching 2 inches during
this time frame. The cold front will become parallel to the flow
aloft resulting in slow movement and potentially heavy rainfall
Wednesday into Thursday as several upper level disturbance moving
along the SW flow aloft interact with the front. Forecasting QPF
this far out is difficult but it does look like several inches of
rain will fall across much of the Mid-South. Luckily most of the
area has been relatively dry the last 2 weeks and a lot of water
has cleared out of the region so that is positive going into this

Friday...Upper trough kicks through Thursday night bringing dry
weather for the end of the week along with slightly below normal




/12Z TAFs/

VC showers early at MKL and TUP. VFR cigs most of the period
before cigs lower to MVFR as showers redevelop. Southeast winds
will veer south and increase. Higher gusts expected.




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