Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 211355
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
955 AM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
Surface high pressure along the eastern seaboard is generating
shallow northeasterly flow across the forecast area this morning.
Scattered showers are noted across northeast Florida, slowly
progressing to the west and northwest. This activity may impact
areas along the Suwannee River and I-75 corridor through the
afternoon and early evening. Therefore, have bumped up the PoPs
slightly in this region. Otherwise, still expect temperatures to
reach the mid to upper 70s this afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [653 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]...

In the upper levels a trough will move into the region Saturday
night. At the surface a low over the Lower Mississippi Valley will
will produce showers and thunderstorms well ahead of the cold front.
Rain and/or thunderstorms can be expected from Saturday night
through at least Monday. The best chance for rain will be Sunday
afternoon through Sunday night. There is a marginal threat for
severe weather on Sunday afternoon or Sunday night. The major models
are in disagreement on instability and deep layer shear values but
either way it looks like there will be some potential for a few
strong to severe storms to develop. Conditions may be favorable for
damaging winds. Skies will be mostly cloudy and highs will be in
the 70s. Lows will be in the lower 60s.


.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

In the upper levels a trough will be over the Southeast with a few
major shortwaves moving through the pattern this week. At the
surface a low will be over the Southeast this week. A cold front
will move through on Monday and another one is likely on Thursday.
Highs will be in the 70s and lows will be in the 50s.


.AVIATION [Through 12Z Sunday]...

MVFR cigs will hang in across north FL and south-central GA today
and will expand northward tonight. Winds from the east will
occasionally gust too 15 to 20 knots through the day and will
remain moderate, around 10 knots, overnight ahead of an
approaching cold front. Light rain ahead of this front will start
towards the end of the period along with IFR cigs.


.MARINE...

Strong easterly winds will decrease and become southerly on Sunday
afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until Sunday
afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are likely Sunday through
Monday as a cold front approaches.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Transport and 20 foot winds will be elevated for the next few days
as a cold front moves across the southern U.S. Relative humidity and
other variables will not reach our other red flag thresholds,
however, so no red flag conditions are expected.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms return today and could last
into Tuesday.


.HYDROLOGY...

Most local rivers are currently below action stage. Rain is expected
Saturday night through Monday. Rain will be moderate to heavy at
times. 2 to 3 inches of rain is forecast for most locations with
higher totals possible particularly in SE Alabama and SW Georgia.
The typical flooding of low lying areas and ponding of water on
roadways can be expected. Flash flooding cannot be ruled out
completely at this time.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   78  62  78  64  79 /  20  40  60  70  50
Panama City   76  65  76  66  76 /  20  30  50  80  30
Dothan        77  60  75  63  78 /  10  40  80  90  40
Albany        75  59  74  62  78 /  10  40  80  90  70
Valdosta      75  60  76  62  78 /  30  40  70  80  80
Cross City    79  64  80  65  79 /  30  30  60  60  80
Apalachicola  76  66  75  67  77 /  10  30  40  70  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Franklin.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for Apalachee Bay or
     Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL
     out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to
     Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee
     River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters
     from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20
     NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20
     to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County
     Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Camp
SHORT TERM...McD
LONG TERM...McD
AVIATION...Nguyen
MARINE...McD
FIRE WEATHER...Nguyen
HYDROLOGY...McD



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