Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS22 KWNS 211915

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 PM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

Previous forecast is on track and no changes are needed. See
previous discussion for more details.

..Leitman.. 03/21/2018

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018/

A highly amplified upper ridge over the western states will shift
eastward to the High Plains on Day 2/Thursday as an upper low moves
northeastward from just off the coast of New England to the Canadian
Maritimes. A shortwave trough over the eastern Pacific is forecast
to develop eastward to southern CA and the adjacent Southwest
through the period. West-southwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to
increase Thursday afternoon across much of the Southwest and
adjacent southern/central High Plains ahead of this upper trough. A
surface low should form over the central High Plains, with lee
troughing becoming well defined over the southern High Plains.

...Portions of the Southwest into the Southern/Central High
A modestly strengthening surface pressure gradient and increasing
mid-level flow overspreading the southern/central High Plains will
likely foster strong/gusty southwesterly surface winds of 15-25 mph
across parts of southern AZ into southern/central/eastern NM and
southeastern CO Thursday afternoon. An antecedent dry airmass is
expected to remain over this region, and diurnal heating/mixing of
the boundary layer will promote reductions of RH values generally
into the 15-20% range for at least a few hours through peak heating.
Guidance suggests fuels will remain dry and receptive to large fire
starts, and elevated conditions should occur on Day 2/Thursday. The
forecast overlap of winds in excess of 20 mph and RH values below
15% appears too limited to include a critical delineation.

...Please see for graphic product...

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