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FXUS01 KWBC 061958
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
357 PM EDT Sun Oct 06 2024

Valid 00Z Mon Oct 07 2024 - 00Z Wed Oct 09 2024

...Hurricane Milton continues to intensify over the southwest Gulf
of Mexico and is expected to move northeastward towards the
Florida Peninsula by the middle of the week...

...Very heavy rainfall well ahead of Hurricane Milton will arrive
across the Florida Peninsula and Keys bringing the threat of flash
flooding...

...Showers and thunderstorms expected for portions of the Upper
Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes through this evening with the
threat for some large hail and damaging winds...

...Record-breaking heat will continue across California and the
Southwest through early this week...

Hurricane Milton continues to intensify over southwestern Gulf of
Mexico and is currently forecast by the National Hurricane Center
(NHC) to move northeastward towards the Florida Peninsula by the
middle of this week. However, potentially significant flash
flooding impacts are expected well ahead of the storm as
anomalously moist tropical air and instability increase along a
wavy frontal boundary draped across the southern Florida
Peninsula. Separate waves of low pressure along this front will
favor areas of very heavy to potentially extreme rainfall in a
concentrated fashion across portions of South Florida through
Monday and Tuesday. There is Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall
(level 3/4) depicted over this region. Additional heavy rainfall
more directly connected to Hurricane Milton will arrive by
Wednesday, and going through Wednesday night, rainfall amounts of
5 to 10 inches with localized totals of 15 inches are expected.
Please consult the latest NHC public advisories for the latest
information on the expected track and impacts from Hurricane
Milton.

An upper-level trough and associated surface frontal system will
pass through areas of the Upper Ohio Valley, Lower Great Lakes
region and the interior of the Northeast going through tonight and
Monday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the
front, and there will be a concern for some severe weather
especially this evening across areas of eastern Ohio, the northern
West Virginia Panhandle, western Pennsylvania and western New York
as the cold front arrives. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has
highlighted a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe weather across
these areas and mainly for the threat of large hail and damaging
winds.

Meanwhile, a record-breaking late-season heat wave will continue
through early this week across areas of central and southern
California and the Desert Southwest as a ridge of high pressure
aloft persists over the region. Forecast highs continue to soar
into the upper 90s to low 100s outside of the immediate coastal
areas of central and southern California, with high temperatures
reaching as high as the low 110s for the interior portions of the
Desert Southwest. Numerous daily record-tying or record-breaking
high temperatures are expected to occur across the region going
through Monday. Heat-related advisories and warnings are in place
as this persistent level of major to extreme heat remains a danger
to anyone without adequate air-conditioning or hydration, and for
those spending greater time outdoors. While not quite as hot,
highs will trend above average again for most of the rest of the
Intermountain West as well, with highs in the 70s and low 80s for
the northern Great Basin/Rockies and into the mid-80s for the
central Great Basin. These very warm temperatures will also spread
east out into the northern/central Plains through the early to
middle part of this week. Some areas of the northern Plains by
Tuesday and Wednesday will likely see high temperatures that are
20 to 25 degrees above average, with temperatures reaching the
upper 70s and low 80s.

Orrison/Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
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