Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS63 KGLD 232055

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
255 PM MDT Wed May 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 255 PM MDT Wed May 23 2018

Tonight...isolated to perhaps scattered thunderstorms will dot the
area within an area of 700-500mb moisture moving into the area
from the southwest. Any activity should lift north/northeast out
of the area or dissipate by 06z. Gusty winds and hail to one inch
in diameter would be the main threats. Low temperatures in the low
to upper 50s in far eastern Colorado with upper 50s to mid 60s
east of the CO/KS border.

Thursday-Thursday night...looks to be a quiet morning with a cold
front bisecting the area. Winds east of the front will be from
the south at 5 to 15 mph while west of the front winds will be
from the north to northeast at 10 mph or less. By mid to late
afternoon moisture increases along the front as an upper trough
moves into the western 1/3 of the area. A few showers and
thunderstorms should develop along the front. Precipitation
chances continue generally east of the CO/KS border during the
evening before exiting the area by sunrise Friday morning. Strong
to severe thunderstorms are possible. Afternoon temperatures
should reach the low to upper 80s in far eastern Colorado with
upper 80s to low 90s east of the CO/KS border. Low temperatures in
the low to mid 50s west, mid 50s to low 60s elsewhere.

Friday-Friday night...upper level ridging builds over the area ahead
of a low pressure system off the central California coast. 850mb
temperatures and bias corrected grids support highs in the mid 80s
to around 90 in far eastern Colorado with low to mid 90s east of the
CO/KS border. Low temperatures in the mid 50s to low 60s. A dry
forecast is currently expected.

Saturday...the upper ridge axis is firmly over the area as the upper
low slowly moves east into Nevada. Dry weather is expected. 850mb
temperatures warm another 1F to 7F across the area and when combined
with better performing bias grids produce highs in the low to mid
90s across the area. 850mb temperatures alone would support readings
a few degrees higher with the century mark possible around Tribune,
however an unfavorable and slowly increasing southeast wind should
prevent full mixing to 850mb potential.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 134 PM MDT Wed May 23 2018

An upper ridge is centered over the High Plains Saturday night,
gradually progressing east through Sunday, placing the region under
southwest flow aloft. This leads to a hot and dry forecast for much
of the weekend. Relative humidities decrease into the 15 to 20
percent range in portions of eastern Colorado on Sunday with S/SE
winds gusting near 30 mph. However, with our recent rainfall, am
thinking that the green-up is underway. Working to coordinate with
fire weather partners on the status of fuels in that area.

The next upper low reaches the central Rockies from the west coast
on Sunday, pushing the ridge to the east and bringing a return of
shower and thunderstorm chances to the area by Sunday night. The
upper low lifts northeast through Wednesday, becoming an open wave
and crossing the northern Plains. As this disturbance heads towards
the Dakotas, waves eject onto the High Plains and moisture advects
into the region, resulting in shower and thunderstorm chances
through midweek. Discrepancies in guidance result in low
predictability of the potential for severe weather at this time.

Sunday is expected to be hot with highs in the 90s, followed by a
gradual decrease into the 80s by Tuesday and Wednesday. Low
temperatures range from the low 50s to mid 60s throughout the


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1110 AM MDT Wed May 23 2018

KGLD, vfr conditions expected through the period. Breezy south
winds will continue through about 11z Thursday morning before
veering to the west under 10kts by 15z then variable around 6kts
by 17z as a cold front approaches. There is a slight chance for
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, best chance for possible
impact to the terminal would be 23z-03z timeframe where the
primary threat would be gusty outflow winds.

KMCK, vfr conditions expected through the period. Breezy south
winds expected through 04z before settling below 12kts through the
rest of the period. There is a slight chance for thunderstorms in
the 00z-03z timeframe with gusty outflow winds the primary threat.

Issued at 134 PM MDT Wed May 23 2018

With 90s expected for high temperatures in many locales over the
upcoming holiday are the record high temperatures for
the 3-day period:

                 SAT(5/26)         SUN(5/27)       MON(5/28)

Goodland KS      97F/2012          99F/2006        98F/1998
McCook NE       102F/2012         103F/2006       101F/2006
Burlington CO    95F/2012          96F/2006        99F/1921
Hill City KS    102F/2012          99F/2006       101F/2006
Colby KS         98F/1967         100F/1895       101F/2006
Tribune KS      101F/1927         100F/2006       100F/2006
Yuma CO          96F/1942          97F/2012        97F/2006




CLIMATE...JBH is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.