Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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388 FXUS64 KSHV 090836 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 336 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday) Issued at 314 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Vast array of remnant outflows are present on the KSHV radar this morning following the collapse of late Wednesday afternoon and evening convection. These have supported some brief thunderstorms across NW Louisiana that have since collapsed. As of 2 AM CDT, the KSHV ASOS reported a temperature reading of 80 deg F over a 73 deg F dew point. At the same time, sfc obs across the region still advertise persistant southerlies, indicating that much of the Ark-La-Tex remains on the south side of the advancing cold front to the north, and just east of an intersecting dry line across South-Central Texas. How far south this cold front advances, prior to stalling briefly late this morning, will set the stage for where the best instability will be located this afternoon, along with where the dominate convective evolution traverses by the evening. This afternoon through early Friday AM: By this afternoon, general thinking is for the sfc boundary to be located somewhere between the I-20 and I-30 corridor. To the west, closer to the DFW metroplex, the influence of the dryline and cold front intersection, along with additional forcing from a shortwave trough across Texas, will allow for supercell thunderstorms to initiate within another volatile environment ahead of the cold front. As storms grow and multiply in coverage to the west of the local FA, morning CAMs suggest gradual clustering, ultimately supporting the development of a multi-cell complex that will enter another impressive environment across the Ark-La-Tex. Once again, sfc theta-e recovery will compliment SBCAPE profiles exceeding 4000 J/kg along and south of the I-20 corridor, while co-located in an area of 700-500 lapse rates above 8.0 C/km, with moderate bulk shear values present. High temperatures in the upper 80`s and low 90`s this afternoon will only aid to the aforementioned instability. Given the parameters available, general thinking is for an evolving MCS to trek into the local FA, presenting the threat for damaging straight line winds, hail and a few brief embedded tornadoes. Still some uncertainty surrounding the overall evolution and strength of the possible MCS as it works across the CWA, with more questions surrounding the swath of possible wind impacts. As a result, the latest day 1 Storm Prediction Center Outlook has expanded the Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) to cover much of the local FA. Friday AM through the end of Short Term Period: As the progged convective complex works east of the local area by early Friday morning, southward advancement of the sfc boundary will follow. The boundary should be located south of Toledo Bend around sunrise, with high pressure quickly advancing into the region. This will support drier conditions to end the week, with an introduction to near-normal temperatures as we head into the weekend. RK && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 314 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 While starting dry, the pattern once again turns towards the return to rain chances to finish the weekend and heading into early next week. Upper ridging overhead will shift eastward by Sunday afternoon as large scale forcing supports the return of moderate precip and embedded thunderstorms by the late afternoon and evening. The pattern will continue into Monday as an upper-low parks across north Texas and southern Oklahoma, prevailing synoptic forcing locally to redevelop additional showers and thunderstorms. Some members of the large scale guidance do suggest that rain chances carry over into parts of Tuesday, so have elected to carry those chances. A second story to the long term package will be the gradual climb of maxT`s locally, starting in the low 80`s and finishing close to 90 deg F by mid week. RK && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 For the 06z TAF package, having to account for remnant convection across our NE TX and SW AR terminal sites but if progs are correct, this activity should continue to dissipate the closer we get to sunrise. Boundary interaction near the I-20 Corridor may tend to limit northward expansion of MVFR/IFR ceilings and will also need to contend with the development of patchy fog mainly near and south of the I-20 corridor as well. Do have all terminals becoming low VFR ceiling wise by late morning and into the afternoon but introduced VCTS once again with a complex of strong to severe convection that is forecast to move rapidly eastward from Central Texas through the tail end of this TAF package. 13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 90 68 84 62 / 20 60 0 0 MLU 91 66 83 59 / 20 50 0 0 DEQ 85 59 80 54 / 20 30 0 0 TXK 88 63 82 58 / 20 40 0 0 ELD 87 61 81 55 / 20 30 0 0 TYR 87 65 82 60 / 40 60 0 0 GGG 88 64 83 60 / 30 60 0 0 LFK 91 67 85 62 / 20 50 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...53 LONG TERM....53 AVIATION...13