207
FXUS63 KTOP 090836
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
336 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry for the remainder of the week, with seasonable
  temperatures in the 70s.

- Precipitation chances (30-60%) return Sunday and persist
  through Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

A breezy and mild day today with northerly wind gusting to 25
mph as cold air advection and a steeper pressure gradient
develop. Upper-level flow will split across the central Plains
today with an upper-level low pushing off to the east toward
the Great Lakes and another retrograding west toward the Four
Corners region. This will keep us in a favorable pattern for dry
and mild conditions through the end of the week.

By Saturday night, the upper-level low to the west will begin
propagating eastward into the Plains. Precipitation chances are
likely to increase Saturday night into Sunday as the low moves
into the Central Plains. Most 00 UTC models have the center of
the low slowly moving across Kansas through early next week.
This could lead to a prolonged period of rainy/stormy weather
for our area. Instability and shear are also favored to return
to the area by next week, bringing chances for severe storms to
our area once again.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

VFR at all TAF sites through the TAF period with breezy
northerly wind developing by late morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jones
AVIATION...Jones