659
FXUS63 KDDC 152137
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
437 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms are possible along the southern tier of counties
  tonight. These could be severe with hail up to golf ball size
  and 60 mph gusts.

- A long stretch of warm and mainly dry weather will begin Thursday
  and extend into next week.

- Surges of downslope flow could result in highs in the 90s
  Monday and Tuesday, with the hotter readings confined to the
  southern tier of counties from Elkhart to Coldwater.

- Any thunderstorms early to mid next week will be isolated,
  with most of central and southwest Kansas staying dry.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 435 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

** MESOSCALE DISCUSSION **

Surface triple point of cold front and multiple surface troughs
now south-southeast of Dodge City near the KS/OK state line.
Surface winds to the west are all out of the north, with a broad
area south of the highway 400 corridor where the mean LCL-LFC
relative humidity is increasing wit time, to near 70% everywhere
 increasingly conducive to convective initiation. The lid that
was showing on model sounding was thin and reasonably easy to
overcome. The convective allowing models continue to show 2
separate areas of convective initiation, one in the post frontal
trough are north of Elkhart to near Scott and Garden City,
which would be in a more marginal severe environment, while
another area across the southeast counties like Comanche, Barber
and Pratt to Stafford have a greater hail risk in the warm
sector, and maybe just a few hours later in time risk (after 7
pm through mid/late evening). Cluster storms may produce 1-2
inch hailstones and 65 mph wind gusts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

A cluster of t-storms will form along the Raton Mesa in northeast NM
due to post frontal upslope flow as an upper level disturbance
approaches this afternoon. These storms will form into a large
cluster and move eastward, skirting the southern tier from Elkhart
to Coldwater, but most severe part of the line will most likely stay
south of the KS/OK state line. Other isolated storms could form out
ahead of this storm cluster over south central Kansas, but these
could also stay just south of the border where the better
instability resides. But thunderstorms could form in Oklahoma
first and then propagate into south central Kansas around
Medicine Lodge and Coldwater. Otherwise, scattered non-severe
convection is possible across southwest Kansas overnight as the
disturbance passes. Thursday should be precipitation free as the
disturbance passes to the east of the area, with highs in the
upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

An upper level trough will traverse the northern plains this
weekend and help push a weak front through southwest Kansas Saturday
morning. Highs will warm into the 80s Friday as winds return to
southerly.  This front will prevent highs from reaching well into
the 90s Saturday, but 80s to near 90 are still possible.
Nocturnal thunderstorms are a slight possibility Saturday night
along I-70 as a low level jet impinges on a mid level thermal
gradient. Low amplitude upper level troughing will develop
across the western USA by Sunday through Tuesday, with broad
west-southwesterly mid level flow across the Rockies. A fast
moving disturbance is advertised to eject northeastward across
the central plains ahead of the main trough by late Monday or
Tuesday. This is not a favorable pattern for precipitation
across western Kansas and any organized t- storm activity will
likely be well to the northeast where the rich low level
moisture will reside. In May, it normally takes a slow moving
and deep upper level trough over the Rockies to get organized
rounds of thunderstorms. An isolated, severe storm can`t be
ruled out starting Monday, especially across central Kansas
along and ahead of a dry line and weak frontal zone where high
theta-e air will be confined beneath a capping inversion.
Probabilistically, the various ensemble means indicate that
chances for .5" or greater of precipitation are much below 10
percent for the weekend and into early to mid next week.
Therefore, it is extremely unlikely that widespread beneficial
rains will occur through at least Tuesday. Day to day
temperatures will depend on the exact location of the frontal
boundary. But generally, the hot weather will be confined to
locations south of the front along the Oklahoma state line, with
afternoon readings well into the 90s. Cooler afternoon readings
in the 80s are most likely along I-70.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1132 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

North winds at 10-14 kts can be expected this afternoon at KLBL,
KGCK and KDDC in the wake of a weak cold front, with lighter
north winds at KHYS. There is a small chance that thunderstorms
moving eastward from the high plains could affect KLBL between
01 and 03z.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Russell
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Finch