Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 210612
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
112 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

Quiet across SW Kansas late this morning, with only some
scattered cirrus and mid cloud. With downsloping SW winds
increasing through the afternoon, and gusting to near 30 mph,
temperatures will soar this afternoon despite local cooling from
minimal cloud cover. Increased max temperature grids 1-2 degrees
across the board, with many locations reaching 100-103. Also
issued a heat advisory across the SE zones 1-7 pm, where lingering
humidity will push the heat index over 105 for several hours this
afternoon.

Convection evolution this afternoon is complex and a bit
perplexing. A strong 596 dm upper high is centered just east of
Medicine Lodge at midday. Apparently, a weak disturbance is
rotating around this anticyclone, northward through the Texas
panhandle, that has already initiated weak convection near
Amarillo. HRRR and other CAMs, with support from 12z GFS, develop
scattered convection across SW KS starting around 3 pm. Increased
pops to scattered category for the central/eastern zones after 3
pm. Storms will form in a very hot, well-mixed boundary layer with
downburst wind gusts to 60 mph being the primary threat.

Midlevel clouds and scattered showers/embedded thunder will
persist much of the night, especially N/NE zones, fed by the low
level jet. Much more organized MCS with attendant hail/wind threat
is expected to remain well to the north of SW KS tonight, focusing
on Nebraska.

MCS-outflow reinforced cold front is expected to be along the
Kansas/Nebraska border at sunrise Wednesday. The front is shown by
all models to make steady southward progress through Kansas during
the daylight hours Wednesday. 12z NAM/GFS/extended HRRR show
excellent agreement showing strong convective initiation along the
cold front across SW KS around 3-4 pm. With the added focus of
the boundary, CAPE/shear will support strong to marginally severe
convection with locally very heavy rain. SPC 5% wind/hail
probability for the entire CWA is justified, and increased severe
risks may be assigned once the cold front focusing mechanism is
nailed down more specifically. The heat will relax Wednesday, but
temperatures will still have time to reach the mid to upper 90s
ahead of the incoming front across the southern counties.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

Heat relief is expected on Thursday behind the frontal boundary.
12z NAM shows the strongest cooler air wedge coming into SW KS,
perhaps enforced by a spurious closed low passing over Kansas
aloft. 12z GFS is not far behind, forecasting surface temperatures
holding in the 70s most of the day for most zones, with some 80s
near the Oklahoma/Colorado borders and even upper 60s NE zones.
Model guidance is trending strongly cooler for Thursday, but much
of this cooling is a function of holding cloud cover through the
daylight hours. If the clouds can hold through 5-6 pm, then the
coolest guidance will verify. NBM appeared too warm in the mid to
upper 80s, and trimmed substantially, but stayed above the cool
guidance. Regardless, Thursday will be the most comfortable day we
have seen in some time.

Kept modest pops in the grids Thursday and Thursday night as the
front meanders and slowly washes out. However, models are trending
eastward with the most significant rainfall during this period,
focusing in central/eastern Kansas.

A warming trend will occur Friday through Sunday. The only
disparity in the models is exactly how quickly this will occur.
Model consensus and 12z MEX guidance suggests afternoon
temperatures will return to near 100 on Sunday. 12z ECMWF supports
this thinking, with the highest thickness values on Sunday,
enhanced by prefrontal compressional heating ahead of the next
cold front scheduled for Monday. Rain chances will also dwindle
during the Friday through Sunday time range, with most locations
remaining dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 103 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

A heat burst from a decaying vicinity thunderstorm was observed at
HYS in the last hour, producing a wind gust in excess of 50 Kts.
This phenomenon could be observed locally in other spots as steep
mid level lapse rates and a weak thunderstorm outflow continue to
develop new areas of mid level convection overnight. More robust
widely scattered convection is being shown by ARW/NMM/HRRR by
around mid afternoon and beyond along the southward shifting cold
front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  96  66  79 /  30  60  60  30
GCK  67  95  64  79 /  30  60  60  30
EHA  68  95  64  89 /  20  60  60  20
LBL  70  97  65  90 /  30  60  60  20
HYS  69  89  65  79 /  50  60  60  40
P28  73  98  69  87 /  30  30  50  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Russell


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