Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 030722
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
122 AM CST Fri Dec 3 2021

...Updated Short and Long Term Discussions...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 109 AM CST Fri Dec 3 2021

Models this morning remain in good agreement with a cold front
crossing southwest Kansas early this morning. Gusty north winds of
20 to 25 mph along with some cooler air is forecast to invade
portions of southwest Kansas during the afternoon behind this cold
front but a wedge of warmer 850mb temperatures are forecast to
remain through the early afternoon across portions of south
central Kansas. After a record breaking warmth yesterday
(Thursday)...the highs today, based on the 850mb temperature
trends, will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler this afternoon. The
exception will be portions of south central Kansas, near the
Oklahoma border, where the potential exists for highs later today
will climb once more into the lower 70s.

Tonight the surface ridge axis will extend from the Texas
Panhandle into north central Kansas. Given clear skies and light
winds will undercut guidance and trend towards MinT of 10 to 25
percent percentile for lows tonight.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 109 AM CST Fri Dec 3 2021

On Saturday the cooler air appears to slowly to erode from west to
east given the 900mb and 850mb temperature trends from 00z
Saturday to 00z Sunday. Highs in the 50s still look reasonable for
all of western Kansas.

Improving westerly downslope flow will develop late Saturday
across eastern Colorado as a trough of low pressure develops
along the lee of the rockies. The warming temperatures from the
downslope flow over eastern Colorado early this weekend will
gradually spread east into western Kansas Saturday night and early
Sunday as an upper level trough approaches from the west and a
cold front drops south out of Nebraska into northwest Kansas
early in the day on Sunday. At this time the next cold frontal
passage will occur Sunday afternoon so the warmest 850mb
temperatures ahead of the cold front late day appears to be
focused near the Oklahoma border. This is where the best warmup is
expected this weekend while further north, behind the cold front
can expect gusty north winds and highs once again only in the 50s.
Coolest temperatures on Sunday will be across northern Kansas
given the potential for increasing afternoon clouds that may
develop ahead of an upper level trough as it crosses into the
Central Plains Sunday afternoon.

As an upper level trough passes Sunday night/early Monday an area
of high pressure at the surface will build into western Kansas.
Based on the 900mb to 850mb temperatures forecast with this high
pressure system on Monday it appears highs will struggle to climb
into the lower 40s. This next shot of colder air early next week
will begin to slowly on Tuesday but with the increasing clouds
expected ahead of the next approaching upper level trough any
warmup on Tuesday will no be very significant.  A few of the
ensembles even suggest that some light precipitation may accompany
this upper level trough Tuesday/Tuesday night but at this time
the day 5 QPF WPC cluster tool suggest that the majority of the
ensembles do not support this solution. Given the WPC QPF cluster
and what point the previous shift made about the progressive
positively tilted trough will continue to favor a dry forecast
next week.

On Wednesday skies will clear as the upper level trough passes but
highs are expected to be in the 40s during the day given the
reinforcement of cooler air forecast behind our mid week cold
front. The cold front that crosses western Kansas mid week will
retreat northward late week allowing for a warming trend Thursday
and Friday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1118 PM CST Thu Dec 2 2021

A cold front will cross western Kansas between 12z and 18z Friday.
As this cold front passes the westerly winds at 10 knots will
shift to the north and increase to near 20 knots between 15z and
18z today. These gusty north winds will then decrease into the 10
to 15 knot range by 03z Saturday. BUFR soundings showing limited
moisture present over southwest Kansas today so VFR conditions can
be expected.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  66  29  52  34 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  65  28  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  65  30  56  34 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  66  29  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  64  29  51  34 /   0   0   0   0
P28  70  35  54  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert


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