Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 101727
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1127 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2019

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1125 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2019

Quiet conditions are likely during the period as weak ridging aloft
transitions eastward across the Intermountain West tonight and into
the Western High Plains by Wednesday afternoon, setting up a weakening
northwest flow aloft throughout the region. With a drier air mass
remaining settled through much of western Kansas, precip chances
will remain out of the forecast. As for temperatures, a stalled
frontal boundary in southwest Kansas is expected to lift slowly
northeast late tonight resulting in a modest SW-NE temperature
gradient. Expect lows well down into the 20s(F) in central Kansas
with temperatures closer to 30F, possibly the lower 30s(F), in
extreme southwest Kansas where a southwest downslope flow should
persist through the night. Prevailing southerlies will draw warmer
air into warmer Kansas Wednesday, pushing H85 temperatures up
around 5C. Under mostly sunny skies, expect widespread 50s(F)
across southwest and central Kansas by mid-afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(After midnight Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 1144 PM CST Mon Dec 9 2019

The aforementioned upper level ridge will be set in place through
the beginning of the long term forecast into the first half of the
weekend giving way to a warm and dry trend into Saturday.
Afternoon high temperatures will mainly be in the 50s pushing near
60 on Friday with morning low temperatures mainly in the 20s
nearing the 30 degree mark Saturday morning.

The ridge will break down as an upper level disturbance currently
off the coast of the Pacific northwest will makes its way across
the high plains later Saturday evening dropping a cold front
through the CWA. Much of the heavier snowfall looks to be north of
the I-70 corridor but models are showing at least a dusting as far
south as the Hwy 50 and 400 corridors. The greatest snowfall looks
to be again along I-70 around the inch mark, but again, being this
far out and models not very consistent from run to run, confidence
is low at this point how much will fall and exactly where. For
now, minimal impacts look to occur with winds turning out of the
north but not showing much in way of stronger gusts at this time.
The main factor will be with temperatures showing highs on Sunday
and into early next week only in the mid to upper 30s with 40s
expected by Tuesday. Morning lows will be quite cold once again
behind the aforementioned cold front mainly in the teens to low
20s.

Overall, the long term forecast looks to be fairly quiet with
warmer and breezy at best through Saturday with the mentioned
disturbance for the later half of the weekend. Longer term models
indicate another warming and dry trend for next work week with
climate predictions showing about average in terms of temperatures
and below average for precipitation for the remainder of the
month.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1100 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2019

VFR conditions will prevail in the vicinity of all TAF sites through
early Wednesday morning. Light northeast winds are expected across
central and much of southwest Kansas through tonight as a stalled
frontal boundary remains in southwest Kansas through this evening
then begins to lift slowly to the northeast overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  43  23  53  34 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  44  24  53  30 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  51  27  56  32 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  50  27  56  32 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  40  22  51  32 /   0   0   0   0
P28  46  23  52  33 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Lowe
AVIATION...JJohnson


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