Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLIX 222051
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
351 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...

Latest surface analysis showed a 1010mb low over east central and
southeast Mississippi and an associated cold front extending from
the low to southwest to Terrebonne parish. Surface dewpoint 65 to
70F was ahead of the front over Mississippi Coast and 60 to 65F
west of the front. Upper air analysis showed a deep low over
Arkansas and 120 knot jet max across north Texas to Louisiana.
This jet max along with low level southeast flow this morning
helped veering winds across the forecast area this morning. As a
result, isolated strong showers were able to rotate across the
forecast this morning. 18

&&

.SHORT TERM...

The low pressure and frontal system will progress east of the
forecast area tonight. Rain chances will be decrease across the
east this evening. Any lingering showers over far eastern areas
should end early this evening with drier and cooler air expected
to filter into the area tonight as the cold front pushes into the
eastern Gulf coast region. Upper level low will slowly advance
east across the Tennessee Valley on Monday night yielding possibly
wrap-around clouds affecting temperatures. Have removed slight
rain chances across the north Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Otherwise, temperatures are expected to remain a rather comfortable
range with lows in the 50s to near 60 and highs in the 70s.

.LONG TERM...

A series of a reinforcing series of shortwave troughs in the
larger longwave trough over the eastern U.S. are expected to move
southeast from the northern Plains and upper Mississippi valley
across the mid to lower Mississippi valley and southeast states
through the middle to late part of the week. There are still some
differences in model solutions and run to run consistency with
timing, strength and orientation of these shortwaves, weak cold
fronts and moisture/precipitation content as they move across the
lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf coast regions.

However, some agreement exist Thursday and Thursday night. Precip
will break out Thursday afternoon and evening across the north
zone and decrease in coverage into Friday morning. Will maintain
the latest blended guidance supports a slight/low chance of
showers Friday into Friday night. Weekend for now looks dry.
Temperatures are expected to continue to average slightly below
the seasonal normals which means nice spring weather considering
dewpoint temperatures should be mostly in the 50s through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...

After the rains, gradually improving conditions are expected from
15 to 16z through the afternoon hours and evening hours. All of
the terminals will see VFR conditions in place by 06z tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...

Increased gradient flow in advance of a passing low pressure this
afternoon will result in onshore winds of 20 knots and seas of 4
to 6 feet in the open Gulf waters and sounds east of the
Mississippi river. Have issued a Small Craft Advisory for open
water expiring at 7 pm this evening with the frontal passage. Winds
are expected to shift to the west for tonight and tomorrow, and
exercise caution flags will maintain overnight over the open Gulf
waters. Prevailing offshore winds of 10 to 15 knots are expected
from Tuesday through Friday. However, a brief surge of winds over
the open Gulf waters Wednesday night in the wake of a passing cold
front could push winds into the 15 to 20 knot range for few
hours. Seas of 2 to 4 feet are generally expected for most of the
week. 18


&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS code: Blue.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: Assessing thunderstorm risk for today
            Sandhill Crane NWR Outreach Support
            New Orleans Navy Week Support

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
         visibility event; Marginal risk severe or excessive rain.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
         advisory issuances; radar support for Slight risk severe or
         excessive rain.
Orange = High Impacts; Enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events;
         HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate to high risk of severe and/or
         excessive rainfall; direct tropical threats; Events of
         National Significance.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  53  73  53  76 /  10   0  10  10
BTR  53  76  56  79 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  55  75  55  78 /  10   0   0  10
MSY  57  76  59  79 /  10   0   0   0
GPT  57  75  59  77 /  10   0   0  10
PQL  55  75  54  77 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ532-536-
     538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ536-538-
     550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$


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