Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 141028

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
530 AM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 151 AM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

GOES_East water vapor imagery early this morning showing a mid-level
trough dropping south along the Manitoba/Ontario border. A few
cirrus were streaming across the region ahead of this feature. Other
than this, it was mostly clear and quiet with reading as of 1 am in
the teens to lower 20s.

Warm air advection kicks in this morning across the region ahead of
that mid-level trough/surface cold front dropping south out of
Canada. Model soundings indicate we should mix to around 900mb which
has temps in the 0C to +5C range. With frontal passage this
afternoon, we could see a few shallow cumulus pop, but mostly sunny
skies will be seen otherwise. Good mixing today to 900mb should
produce highs in the upper 30s to near 50 along with rather breezy
conditions with gusts mainly in the 20-25 mph range.

High pressure builds in behind the departing mid-level wave/surface
cold front tonight with overnight lows falling into the teens to
middle 20s.

Sunny and a bit cooler for Thursday as high pressure continues to
build into the region. Plan on highs in the 30s to the lower 40s.
Chillier for Thursday night as well wit lows ranging from the single
digits above across northern WI to the teens elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 151 AM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Precipitation chances creep into areas south of I-90 Friday
afternoon into Saturday morning as low pressure tracks across the
Central Plains into southern IA/northern MO. Looks like mainly rain
chances Friday afternoon and then perhaps a wintry mix of rain/snow
as we cool Friday night into Saturday morning. This northern
periphery of moisture will be battling some fairly dry lower layers
from high pressure over northern WI/Great Lakes, so kept pops in the
20-30 percent range. Look for highs Friday and Saturday in the upper
30s to upper 40s with lows in the teens to middle 20s.

Drier conditions set up from Saturday night through Sunday night
with highs pressure regaining control across the region. Plan on
highs Sunday in the 40s to near 50 with lows in the teens to
middle 20s.

Another chance of rain, rain/snow mix enters the picture Monday into
Tuesday as a mid-level trough swings through the Northern Plains
through the region and surface low pressure slips by to the south.
Temperatures look to be right around normal with highs in the
30s/lower 40s and lows in the teens/20s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 530 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

Cigs: hints in the NAM and RAP that there will be some increase in
low level saturation post a trough this afternoon, but more in
earnest overnight tonight - which could result in a bkn mvfr cig.
GFS not as robust. Will keep VFR forecast for now, but bears keeping
an eye on.

Wx/vsby: no impacts noted.

Winds: trough sliding southward across the region this morning/early
afternoon will swing south/southwest winds to northwest. A few
afternoon gusts also expected.




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