Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 251120
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
620 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Significant winter impacts from heavy snow and gusty winds are
  still expected today through Tuesday, however more confined to
  the far southern Red River Valley into west central Minnesota.

- There is still uncertainty to the northern/western extent of
  the heavy snow, particularly from the Fargo-Moorhead metro
  area towards Roseau.

- Expect disruptions to daily life, difficult travel conditions,
  some closures to infrastructure, and blowing and drifting
  snow, with a gradient to little/no impacts across the Devils
  Lake region.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 620 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

The band on radar stretching from Valley City to Grand Forks to
Thief River Falls is finally producing some light snow at the
surface here in Grand Forks. However, visibilities remain fine
(4-6 miles), as the flakes are still pretty fine. Otherwise, the
band to the south of the FA continues to lift northward, so
steadier snow will continue to expand up into west central
Minnesota this morning. Wind speeds will pick up after sunrise,
but the worst of any blowing and drifting snow and reduced
visibilities today will mainly be tied to falling snow. For the
northern Valley over toward Devils Lake, where there hasn`t been
much snow at all yet, there shouldn`t be much blowing and
drifting yet.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Will start first with the forecast changes. The current
headlines are still doing well, so only some minor adjustments
were made. Where little more snow is expected, thus blowing and
drifting snow will not be an issue, dropped Pembina and eastern
Walsh counties from the Winter Weather Advisory. Only another
inch or so of snow is anticipated across Barnes County, but
where there could still be some blowing/drifting, so switched
them from a Winter Storm Warning to a Winter Weather Advisory.

As for current conditions, the entire FA is pretty much in a
lull right now. Radar does not really accurately depict what is
going on at the surface. There is snow falling across the far
southeast FA, from Alexandria to Wadena Minnesota. Then the
radar shows a band of snow centered over the Grand Forks area.
Under this band, only a few flurries are actually reaching the
ground. In between these two areas, little or nothing is
falling. So the first thought if people wake up and look out the
window is that the event is done, this is not the case. More
snow is headed this way, but it may not get here until mid to
late morning. Wind directions are still from the northeast,
which is not a favorable direction for really gusty winds. Plus
it being night, with no real cold advection, is leading to
lower winds than expected. Would expect winds to increase more
after sunrise.

We have been mentioning the dry air multiple times with this
event. This is still clearly evident early this morning, where
the surface dewpoint is 2F at Baudette and 25F at Waskish. The
surface dewpoint is -2F at Hallock, 4F at Grand Forks, and 22F
at Fargo. Dewpoints are all in the 0 to 5F range across the
Devils Lake region. So there is a strong gradient where the snow
has been falling and reaching the ground and where it has been
falling and drying up before it reaches the ground. This is
pretty typical with steady dry northeast winds, but this seems
even more striking than normal.

So the steadier snow band to the south of the FA will continue
to lift into the FA today, but more so east of the Red River
Valley. The Valley proper may be more along the sharper moisture
gradient, leaving snowfall totals in this area more uncertain.
Do expect winds to increase during the day, but the north-
northeast direction component is not favorable for getting the
strongest winds. Areas that have received snow will see some
blowing and drifting, which is mostly over southeast North
Dakota into adjacent areas of west central Minnesota. Further
north, say along/north of the highway 200 corridor, where there
has been much less snow, the blowing and drifting would be
less.

Don`t see much cold advection tonight into Tuesday either. Winds
will turn to more of a favorable direction for the Valley
component gustiness (360 degrees - straight North) tonight.
However, without strong cold advection, expect some of the gusts
to drop off (keeping a high sustained value though). The heavier
snow should transition to areas east of the Valley, so within
the Valley there should be less falling snow. Without steady
falling snow, really low visibilities from blowing snow alone
are much harder to achieve. Moving into Tuesday, directions
turn even more favorable for a Valley enhanced wind (350
degrees), but the available wind to mix really begins to drop
off. Plus even the lighter rate lingering snow should be ending
as well. So overall, expecting some blowing and drifting for
the areas that picked up more snowfall, but impacts should not
be as bad as they could be if all the components came together.
Conditions should begin to improve from west to east across the
FA on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 620 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Tried to keep the TAFs fairly straightforward. Conditions are
not that bad so far this morning, but lowering visibilities and
ceilings will occur throughout the morning. The steadiest snow
is expected at KBJI/KFAR, with less confidence for it at
KGFK/KTVF. Meanwhile, KDVL will stay out of the snow completely.
Wind speeds will increase through the morning, be the most gusty
through the afternoon, then the gusts should drop off somewhat
again tonight. Areas where the wind and falling snow overlap
the most should see some BLSN, which would be KFAR. Wind speeds
at KBJI should not be strong enough to produce BLSN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for NDZ027>030-
     038.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for NDZ039-049-052-
     053.
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for MNZ001-002-
     004-007.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for MNZ003-029.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM CDT Tuesday for MNZ005-008-
     013>015.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM CDT Tuesday for MNZ006-009-017-
     024-032.
     Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM CDT Tuesday for MNZ016-022-
     023-027-028-030-031-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
DISCUSSION...Godon
AVIATION...Godon


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