967
FXUS63 KFGF 120915
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
415 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Smoke from Canadian wildfires will be present across the
  region throughout the day today.

- There is a chance for frost for areas north of US Highway 2
  tonight into Monday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 410 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Synopsis:

A cold front is passing through our area this morning as
observed by surface observations. This cold front will be south
of our area by mid morning, with relatively cooler air pushing
into the region behind a passing upper low moving through MB and
ON. Smoke from Canadian wildfires will fill into the region
behind this front, lingering throughout the day today, possibly
into Monday. North Dakota and Minnesota will remain in the
subsident region south and behind the passing upper low,
followed by upper ridging Monday keeping conditions dry today
and Monday. Upper troughing aloft then extends into the Northern
Plains and Upper Midwest mid to late next week bringing one or
more rounds of showers and weak thunderstorms. The chance for
widespread hazardous weather during this mid to late next week
period.

Smoke from Canadian wildfires today:

Surface observations early this morning are revealing reduced
visibilities from smoke, signaling smoke at the surface behind
the passing cold front. Given continued weak cold air advection
behind the front, smoke is expected to remain near surface level
throughout the day today. High confidence in this is backed by
most if not all smoke allowing models depicting this as well.
Smoke may thin a little during the afternoon as highest
concentrations may advect away from the area closer to the
frontal passage, but still will be noticeable throughout the
day. Smoke may may also hinder daytime heating some keeping
temperatures in the 60s to low 70s.

Frost potential tonight into Monday morning:

Optimal radiational cooling conditions in a dry air mass
forecast to reside over lower Canada into the Northern Plains
and Upper Midwest will allow temperatures to dip into the 30s.
There is still some uncertainty in where lowest dewpoints will
reside come nightfall tonight, but dry air mass filtering in
from the north would keep best chance for driest air in northern
counties north of US Highway 2. This in turn would give highest
frost potential at these locations with temperatures cooling to
their dewpoints under light winds and clear skies. Even with
smoke expected to be present, smoke does not affect radiational
cooling efficiency. As of now, there is a 40% chance frost
develops for these locations, with other areas within Minnesota
liable to see frost as well.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1043 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Shower activity has mostly concluded though a few stray echos
remain through 09Z. Winds continue to turn north overnight with
increasing winds by mid morning and gusts in the low to mid 20s
by the afternoon. While minimal cloud cover tomorrow could see
some Canadian smoke moving in behind tonights front.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...TT