Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 241729

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
129 PM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 445 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2018

Northwest flow aloft transitions to more of ridge later today into
tonight as split flow southern system tracks well to the south of
Upper Michigan, from the Plains to the Ohio Valley. High clouds
around 20kft affect the west half much of today but otherwise,
skies should be mostly sunny. As sfc high over northern Ontario
moves to Quebec through tonight, winds will mainly from the east
today (still gusty near Lk Superior and along Bay of Green Bay)
before becoming light southeast tonight. Utilized persistence
forecast for temps today and tonight, using model guidance that
has done the best recently. Result is temps topping out near 30F
north today with maybe a 40F reading over west and south central.
Temps tonight will again dip into the single digits over the
interior with teens along Great Lakes.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 424 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2018

Most attention is on precip late Mon through Tue associated with an
upper trough and surface low moving across the region. Warm, moist
air will push N into the area ahead of the system, which will allow
for widespread precip late Mon through Tue. Total QPF looks to be
generally 0.25-0.50 inches, with potential for up to an inch at
most. Most of the precip should fall as rain given warm low levels
and a warm nose, but should see some rain/snow mix over mainly
northern portions of the area Mon night. Not expecting any
significant snowfall amounts at this time, but some models are
cooler which could turn precip to mostly snow mainly across the N.
Even so, with high temps in the 40s on Mon and Tue, and lows around
freezing Mon night, do not expect any significant snowfall
accumulations. Will certainly see increased river levels with the
two warmer days, higher humidity, and rain, but at this time it
doesn`t look like anything impactful.

Beyond that, the pattern will be unsettled with occasional chances
for rain and snow showers, but nothing substantial for the most
part. Models are now showing a surge of colder air (-20C) Fri into
next Sat, but uncertainty is high with all details.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 129 PM EDT SAT MAR 24 2018

A dry air mass over the area will ensure VFR conditions at
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW thru this fcst period. Easterly winds at KCMX will be
gusty this aftn, as high as 25kt at times.

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 445 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2018

Strong high pres over southern Hudson Bay will shift e, reaching
Quebec this aftn through Sun. As this occurs, expect generally ne to
e winds of 15-25kt across Lake Superior today, except up to 30kt
over the far western part of the lake. Winds will then veer more e
to se on Sun with the stronger winds shifting to the eastern part of
the lake. Ahead of an approaching low pres trof, winds may reach up
to 30kt at times over eastern Lake Superior Sun night through Tue.
Winds will be lighter over the western part of the lake. In addition
to possible rain and snow, there is also potential for freezing rain
as the trough crosses Mon night through Tue. Behind the trof, winds
should be under 20kt on Wed.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


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