601
FXUS65 KABQ 101959
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
159 PM MDT Fri May 10 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 159 PM MDT Fri May 10 2024

The backdoor front across the east slopes of the central mountain
chain will be reinforced this evening pushing through the gaps of
the central mountain chain into the Albuquerque Metro and bringing
gusty east winds once again, especially below canyon openings. Wind
gusts of 40 to 50 mph are possible before tapering off around
sunrise Saturday. Shower and storm coverage looks to peak for most
areas Saturday before tapering off and limited to the higher terrain
and northeast areas Sunday though Tuesday. Another uptick in
coverage is expected Wednesday possibly lingering into Thursday
before drier and warmer weather returns late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 159 PM MDT Fri May 10 2024

Upper low is currently evident on water vapor imagery finishing up
its brief retrograde into CA. The system is expected to wobble
eastward into the southern tip of NV and towards the Four Corners
Region tonight. Meanwhile, continued moist upslope flow will allow
for showers to continue across the central mts with increasing
coverage into portions of eastern NM tonight. Instability continues
to be lackluster, allowing for the activity to be predominantly rain
with isolated grumbles of thunder. The continued sharp density
gradient will allow for gusty canyon gap winds to return across the
middle RGV this evening through tonight, with gusts between 45 and
55 mph likely. As such, did hoist a Wind Advisory for the
Albuquerque metro for this evening through the early morning hours.

Precipitation will continue through Saturday with increasing
coverage across northern and eastern NM where rainfall amounts could
reach between 0.25 and 0.75 in, with an even high concentration
possible in northeastern NM. Snow levels increase as compared to
last night and today`s values, but a few inches of snow will still
be possible above 10,000 ft in the Sangre de Cristo Mts. High
temperatures on Saturday will trend a few to 20F below normal, with
locales across the eastern plains seeing the most dramatic below
average readings. The upper low will wander into CO Saturday night,
allowing for showers to continue, particularly across east central
NM. Instability will increase as the Pacific front associated with
the low`s passage makes its way east. This will lead to an increase
in the potential for thunderstorms where periods of gusty winds,
lightning, small hail, and localized heavy rainfall will be
possible.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 159 PM MDT Fri May 10 2024

The upper low continues moving into the central and southern high
plains Sunday. Temperatures will be much warmer and around 3 to 7
degrees below average across eastern NM thanks to the westerly flow
on the backside of the upper low. PWATs around half an inch wrapping
around the southern flank of the upper low across the northern
mountains and northeast NM will still allow for some isolated to
scattered showers and storms to develop. Skies will clear up after
sunset Sunday as the low exits east into the Great Plains and upper
level ridging moves into the central and southern Rockies. Drier
northwest flow will be over New Mexico Monday with temperatures
warming to near seasonal readings across western and central NM.
Temperatures will be slightly below average across eastern NM due to
north winds on the backside of the upper level trough over the Great
Plains. Some mid level moisture looks overhead and this will allow
some afternoon to evening showers and storms, more of the drier
variety due to higher dewpoint depressions, to develop across the
northern mountains and adjacent highlands. Erratic wind gusts with
little wetting rainfall will be the main impact from this.
Showers/storms and clouds should quickly dissipate shortly after
sunset.

A baggy upper low moves into southern CA on Tuesday with
temperatures across the state continuing to warm up slightly above
normal. Daytime heating will allow for some showers and storms to
develop across the northern and western high terrain during the
afternoon spreading into the adjacent highlands during the evening
hours. Again, showers and storms will be more of the drier variety
with little wetting footprints and erratic wind gusts being the
main impact. Activity dissipates after sunset. Models differ on if
this baggy low phases with a northern stream trough moving into
Rocky Mountains on Wednesday. The GFS and some of its ensembles
(13%) fully phase the two upper level features due to a deeper
northern stream trough, because of the upstream ridge over the
Pacific NW more amplified. Meanwhile the ECMWF and most of its
ensembles (~60%) keep the two partly separated when moving through
the state Wednesday. This is due to the northern stream trough
across the Rockies and the upstream ridge across the Pacific more
shallow. Ensembles agree on a backdoor front moving into northeast
NM, with the higher moisture of PWATS around 0.70 inches resulting
in an uptick in showers and storms across the northern mountains and
northeast NM. The differences depicted on Wednesday have downstream
effects on the late week forecast. The deterministic GFS and around
25% of its ensembles have a more amplified ridge over the Pacific NW
allowing a shortwave on the backside of the departing trough to
amplify, dive south and close off into a low over the desert SW with
higher, shower and storm chances. Meanwhile the ECMWF and a majority
of its ensembles (~60%) show a dampened Pacific ridge with weak
troughing across British Columbia resulting in drier northwest flow
over the state in the wake of Wednesday`s upper level trough. The
NBM leans more this 2nd scenario with drier conditions and cooler,
below average, temperatures on Thursday followed by warmer near
average temperatures and mostly clear skies heading into next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1131 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024

Unsettled weather to continue throughout the TAF period. Current
MVFR cigs across portions of ern NM will improve for a short time
this aftn before deteriorating once again tonight. Aftn shwrs and
storms will favor the nrn mts, spreading newd into the highlands
aft 10/20Z. Widespread MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys will return tonight
increasing in coverage across portions of the Rio Grande Valley
and ewd due to shwrs. Ely canyon winds are also expected in and
around KABQ aft 11/00Z, with gusts to 40 kt likely. Little
improvement to low cigs/vsbys across the central mts and ewd is
expected by the close of the TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 159 PM MDT Fri May 10 2024

Cooler and wetter conditions will limit critical fire weather
conditions through the forecast period. Brief and extremely
localized critical fire weather will favor the West Central Basin
and Range on Saturday, where gusty southwest winds will meet with
minimum relative humidity in the low double digits. Areas across the
northern mountains, as well as the central mountains and eastward,
will have the potential for wetting precipitation Saturday and
Sunday. Precipitation coverage will then favor the northern
mountains through early next week. Relative humidity values will
increase areawide through Thursday amongst generally light to breezy
winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  43  71  39  74 /  20  40   5  10
Dulce...........................  34  63  30  67 /  50  90  10  50
Cuba............................  40  65  35  66 /  30  70  20  40
Gallup..........................  33  69  33  72 /   0   5   0  10
El Morro........................  37  66  36  66 /   5  10   0  20
Grants..........................  36  69  32  70 /  10  20   0  10
Quemado.........................  37  70  36  69 /   0   5   0  10
Magdalena.......................  46  73  43  71 /  20  20   0   5
Datil...........................  41  69  38  67 /  10   5   0  10
Reserve.........................  34  75  32  74 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  47  78  46  79 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  33  56  30  59 /  70  90  20  70
Los Alamos......................  44  61  42  62 /  60  90  40  50
Pecos...........................  41  57  38  64 /  70  90  70  50
Cerro/Questa....................  38  55  36  56 /  70  90  50  60
Red River.......................  31  50  28  53 /  60  90  60  80
Angel Fire......................  31  50  27  55 /  60  90  60  70
Taos............................  35  61  32  64 /  50  80  50  50
Mora............................  37  52  32  61 /  70  90  70  60
Espanola........................  44  69  42  70 /  50  90  40  40
Santa Fe........................  44  62  42  65 /  60  90  60  50
Santa Fe Airport................  45  66  41  69 /  60  80  50  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  50  72  50  74 /  40  70  30  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  51  74  48  75 /  30  60  20  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  50  77  47  78 /  30  50  10  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  50  74  48  75 /  30  60  20  10
Belen...........................  48  79  43  79 /  30  50  10  10
Bernalillo......................  50  74  46  76 /  40  70  30  20
Bosque Farms....................  48  77  43  77 /  30  50  10  10
Corrales........................  49  75  46  77 /  40  60  20  20
Los Lunas.......................  48  78  43  78 /  30  50  10  10
Placitas........................  48  70  48  71 /  50  70  30  20
Rio Rancho......................  50  73  46  76 /  40  60  20  20
Socorro.........................  51  83  48  82 /  30  20   5   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  44  63  43  66 /  50  80  30  20
Tijeras.........................  47  67  43  69 /  50  70  30  20
Edgewood........................  44  64  40  69 /  50  80  40  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  43  67  36  71 /  40  70  40  10
Clines Corners..................  41  59  38  66 /  50  80  50  10
Mountainair.....................  45  69  40  70 /  40  60  20   5
Gran Quivira....................  44  71  40  70 /  30  50  20   5
Carrizozo.......................  51  77  48  76 /  30  40  10   5
Ruidoso.........................  46  68  43  69 /  30  50  20   5
Capulin.........................  39  52  39  60 /  40  90  60  80
Raton...........................  40  56  38  64 /  50  80  60  70
Springer........................  43  57  38  66 /  60  90  60  60
Las Vegas.......................  41  54  38  65 /  70  90  70  50
Clayton.........................  47  60  46  69 /  30  80  70  60
Roy.............................  45  55  44  67 /  60  90  80  50
Conchas.........................  51  62  49  74 /  70  90  90  30
Santa Rosa......................  49  60  48  71 /  60  80  80  20
Tucumcari.......................  49  64  49  76 /  50  90  80  30
Clovis..........................  50  63  51  78 /  40  80  70  30
Portales........................  51  64  52  80 /  40  70  70  30
Fort Sumner.....................  51  64  51  77 /  50  80  70  10
Roswell.........................  58  69  58  86 /  50  40  50   5
Picacho.........................  51  66  48  78 /  40  50  30   5
Elk.............................  48  69  45  77 /  40  40  20   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM MDT Saturday for
NMZ219.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...12